With the year long over, I wanted to start a thread to review the 2015 season and discuss specific games that stood out to you for one reason or another regarding ATS . Whether it was an unexpected upset, big blowout, close win, game you had circled all season, etc. Feel free to post the game and discuss.
Reviewing these games, the spreads, which side you took (and why), and why the spread opened/closed where it did, can be valuable for refining our handicapping in order to have an even better 2016.
Special shout to Bookieassassin for consistently writing the best NCAAFB spread every week. I'll kick it off below....
9/26
Utah +10.5 @ Oregon
Result: Utah 62-20
So Utah was 3-0 going into this game and absolutely killing it while Oregon was 2-1 (albeit the loss was a close one @ MSU), but the writing was on the wall that Oregon would likely have a down year.
This line baffled me at the time and seemed too good to be true. Oregon struggled vs Physical teams, Utah was a physical team, not sure what I'm missing here, but why is Utah +10?! They
I'm guessing Vegas was late in recognizing Oregon would struggle without Mariota, but they missed badly on this one. Also possible they weren't giving Utah enough credit. Regardless, that line was a real head scratcher, and goes to show "when it looks too good to be true, it probably is" doesn't necessarily imply a trap. Sometimes it is too good to be true and you have to follow your gut.
With the year long over, I wanted to start a thread to review the 2015 season and discuss specific games that stood out to you for one reason or another regarding ATS . Whether it was an unexpected upset, big blowout, close win, game you had circled all season, etc. Feel free to post the game and discuss.
Reviewing these games, the spreads, which side you took (and why), and why the spread opened/closed where it did, can be valuable for refining our handicapping in order to have an even better 2016.
Special shout to Bookieassassin for consistently writing the best NCAAFB spread every week. I'll kick it off below....
9/26
Utah +10.5 @ Oregon
Result: Utah 62-20
So Utah was 3-0 going into this game and absolutely killing it while Oregon was 2-1 (albeit the loss was a close one @ MSU), but the writing was on the wall that Oregon would likely have a down year.
This line baffled me at the time and seemed too good to be true. Oregon struggled vs Physical teams, Utah was a physical team, not sure what I'm missing here, but why is Utah +10?! They
I'm guessing Vegas was late in recognizing Oregon would struggle without Mariota, but they missed badly on this one. Also possible they weren't giving Utah enough credit. Regardless, that line was a real head scratcher, and goes to show "when it looks too good to be true, it probably is" doesn't necessarily imply a trap. Sometimes it is too good to be true and you have to follow your gut.
uh-oh.....controversy right off the bat........... *btw good thread
That one with WAY too many UNKNOWNS.... *so I don't know if any real lessons learned
Utes with (really) 3 semi-fraudulent W's *outgained at home by Michigan and Utah St.....6-7 TO's were the difference....some forced sure
Michigan improved but not there yet week 1....Aggies and Fresno both BAD teams....(Fresno terrible) *so Utes 3-0 but hadn't looked sharp + QB was banged up and ?....seems like Booker was too
Ducks lost by 3 at Sparty.....could have won.......NOBODY knew then that : Vernon was done for a few weeks......that Ducks were a BAD team without him (Lockie was the starter all thru spring)...and that their D was among the nation's worst wtf *so 'correct' line was actually 12'-14 probably......CTG had it at 14 / GOY lines was 14. 10' was too low because if Wilson can't go > Vernon does > Utes might get killed............'correct' here meaning based on what we knew THEN
NOTE: at (reg.) season's end......line woulda been 10 or more *suggesting that initial line was fine....just WAY off that week
Back later with a few.....emphasis maybe being initial PR's that were way off either way............ .
Humble when ambitious - gracious when successful - resilient when you fail.
uh-oh.....controversy right off the bat........... *btw good thread
That one with WAY too many UNKNOWNS.... *so I don't know if any real lessons learned
Utes with (really) 3 semi-fraudulent W's *outgained at home by Michigan and Utah St.....6-7 TO's were the difference....some forced sure
Michigan improved but not there yet week 1....Aggies and Fresno both BAD teams....(Fresno terrible) *so Utes 3-0 but hadn't looked sharp + QB was banged up and ?....seems like Booker was too
Ducks lost by 3 at Sparty.....could have won.......NOBODY knew then that : Vernon was done for a few weeks......that Ducks were a BAD team without him (Lockie was the starter all thru spring)...and that their D was among the nation's worst wtf *so 'correct' line was actually 12'-14 probably......CTG had it at 14 / GOY lines was 14. 10' was too low because if Wilson can't go > Vernon does > Utes might get killed............'correct' here meaning based on what we knew THEN
NOTE: at (reg.) season's end......line woulda been 10 or more *suggesting that initial line was fine....just WAY off that week
Back later with a few.....emphasis maybe being initial PR's that were way off either way............ .
It was an abomination that USC was opened as the favorite to begin with
For How could this indiscretion happen?
All money was on Utah
Even those skeptical of Vegas setting lines took Utah
USC absolutely crushed them
the game wasnt even close.
I know the author of this thread does not subscribe to My reality theory but for USC Losers of two straight and with a 3-2 record to be favored in that game vs a surging Utah team that was 6-0 and the only problematic game they had was vs Michigan the first game of the season was ridiculous.
It was an abomination that USC was opened as the favorite to begin with
For How could this indiscretion happen?
All money was on Utah
Even those skeptical of Vegas setting lines took Utah
USC absolutely crushed them
the game wasnt even close.
I know the author of this thread does not subscribe to My reality theory but for USC Losers of two straight and with a 3-2 record to be favored in that game vs a surging Utah team that was 6-0 and the only problematic game they had was vs Michigan the first game of the season was ridiculous.
this is why I am totally sold on the big picturestrategy in wagering..... *SURE....you might occasionally be wrong....but more often you will be correct MEANING ; figure out the true identity of a team and which way they're going >> getting better / worse / going nowhere *don't make these weekly emotional / knee jerk reactions wtf
I told EVERYBODY that would listen.....and even those that wouldn't.....that OU and N Carolina were FRAUDS.....waiting to be exposed.........by the RIGHT team of course
Was Oregon the right team (match-up wise) to expose Utah? * NOPE.....way too weak in the trenches * how bout Cal or Ariz St?....both at home.....nope * at USC ?
Humble when ambitious - gracious when successful - resilient when you fail.
this is why I am totally sold on the big picturestrategy in wagering..... *SURE....you might occasionally be wrong....but more often you will be correct MEANING ; figure out the true identity of a team and which way they're going >> getting better / worse / going nowhere *don't make these weekly emotional / knee jerk reactions wtf
I told EVERYBODY that would listen.....and even those that wouldn't.....that OU and N Carolina were FRAUDS.....waiting to be exposed.........by the RIGHT team of course
Was Oregon the right team (match-up wise) to expose Utah? * NOPE.....way too weak in the trenches * how bout Cal or Ariz St?....both at home.....nope * at USC ?
It was an abomination that USC was opened as the favorite to begin with
For How could this indiscretion happen?
All money was on Utah
Even those skeptical of Vegas setting lines took Utah
USC absolutely crushed them
the game wasnt even close.
I know the author of this thread does not subscribe to My reality theory but for USC Losers of two straight and with a 3-2 record to be favored in that game vs a surging Utah team that was 6-0 and the only problematic game they had was vs Michigan the first game of the season was ridiculous.
Final score usc 42 utah 24
Good call.
That game was BY FAR the Vegas mind-fucck of the season. There was literally no reason to make USC a favorite. Sark was fired on 10/11, then USC lost to ND which preceded this Utah game. So Utah came into the came 6-0, USC was 3-3 with an interim coach in his 2nd game and 2 game losing streak and USC was favored!! In retrospect, I guess this shows how great of a pulse Vegas has on these teams, and how they can control wager volume and public perception. Also, the line opened at -3 at by kickoff was nearly -6. Its not like Utah was a fluke 6-0 either, they beat a solid Mich team, HANDLED Oregon, picked off Goff 5 times, and beat a mediocre ASU team.
There were three groups of bettors on this came:
1. Backing Utah because catching 6 with a solid team was a no-brainer.
2. Seeing the trap, and taking USC because Vegas "knows something" and had to set this line where it did for a reason.
3. People who recognized the trap line, figured it was a trap line, and tried to outsmart everyone by taking Utah, figuring Vegas knowingly set the "trap" line and the "public" would recognize the trap.
Mafioso- Can you elaborate on what you mean by me "not subscribing to your reality theory"...lost me there.
It was an abomination that USC was opened as the favorite to begin with
For How could this indiscretion happen?
All money was on Utah
Even those skeptical of Vegas setting lines took Utah
USC absolutely crushed them
the game wasnt even close.
I know the author of this thread does not subscribe to My reality theory but for USC Losers of two straight and with a 3-2 record to be favored in that game vs a surging Utah team that was 6-0 and the only problematic game they had was vs Michigan the first game of the season was ridiculous.
Final score usc 42 utah 24
Good call.
That game was BY FAR the Vegas mind-fucck of the season. There was literally no reason to make USC a favorite. Sark was fired on 10/11, then USC lost to ND which preceded this Utah game. So Utah came into the came 6-0, USC was 3-3 with an interim coach in his 2nd game and 2 game losing streak and USC was favored!! In retrospect, I guess this shows how great of a pulse Vegas has on these teams, and how they can control wager volume and public perception. Also, the line opened at -3 at by kickoff was nearly -6. Its not like Utah was a fluke 6-0 either, they beat a solid Mich team, HANDLED Oregon, picked off Goff 5 times, and beat a mediocre ASU team.
There were three groups of bettors on this came:
1. Backing Utah because catching 6 with a solid team was a no-brainer.
2. Seeing the trap, and taking USC because Vegas "knows something" and had to set this line where it did for a reason.
3. People who recognized the trap line, figured it was a trap line, and tried to outsmart everyone by taking Utah, figuring Vegas knowingly set the "trap" line and the "public" would recognize the trap.
Mafioso- Can you elaborate on what you mean by me "not subscribing to your reality theory"...lost me there.
this is why I am totally sold on the big picturestrategy in wagering..... *SURE....you might occasionally be wrong....but more often you will be correct MEANING ; figure out the true identity of a team and which way they're going >> getting better / worse / going nowhere *don't make these weekly emotional / knee jerk reactions wtf
I told EVERYBODY that would listen.....and even those that wouldn't.....that OU and N Carolina were FRAUDS.....waiting to be exposed.........by the RIGHT team of course
Was Oregon the right team (match-up wise) to expose Utah? * NOPE.....way too weak in the trenches * how bout Cal or Ariz St?....both at home.....nope * at USC ?
COMPLETELY AGREE about recognizing and understanding the BIG PICTURE. Exactly why you need to understand how a team finished last year and figure out the general trend/expectations of a given team. On-point about knee-jerk reactions, majority of bettors look week-to-week and don't take a step back and look at how 1 week result fits into the overall picture and direction of a team. For example, it should have been glaringly obvious Oregon was trending down and was heading into a bad year, despite the season opening win.
Its really unusual for a team to just come out of nowhere and dominate in 1 year, there is usually some type of crescendo or gradual rise that takes place over 1-2 years, and can be spotted by looking at the BIG PICTURE!!
this is why I am totally sold on the big picturestrategy in wagering..... *SURE....you might occasionally be wrong....but more often you will be correct MEANING ; figure out the true identity of a team and which way they're going >> getting better / worse / going nowhere *don't make these weekly emotional / knee jerk reactions wtf
I told EVERYBODY that would listen.....and even those that wouldn't.....that OU and N Carolina were FRAUDS.....waiting to be exposed.........by the RIGHT team of course
Was Oregon the right team (match-up wise) to expose Utah? * NOPE.....way too weak in the trenches * how bout Cal or Ariz St?....both at home.....nope * at USC ?
COMPLETELY AGREE about recognizing and understanding the BIG PICTURE. Exactly why you need to understand how a team finished last year and figure out the general trend/expectations of a given team. On-point about knee-jerk reactions, majority of bettors look week-to-week and don't take a step back and look at how 1 week result fits into the overall picture and direction of a team. For example, it should have been glaringly obvious Oregon was trending down and was heading into a bad year, despite the season opening win.
Its really unusual for a team to just come out of nowhere and dominate in 1 year, there is usually some type of crescendo or gradual rise that takes place over 1-2 years, and can be spotted by looking at the BIG PICTURE!!
Coming off an ugly ugly Utah loss, which actually was not as close as the final score indicated, was the home-opener for Harbaugh. This really was a great # to back UM in a super-hype spot for Jim. You were giving under 2 TD, had a young, crappy team flying East for an early start, and a true freshman run-first QB in a new system with a 1st year HC. The Defense actually looked great in the Utah game, but very few people predicted we would be THAT good. Obviously there was no way to know how big of a steal -13.5 was at the time, but it's apparent looking in retrospect as they UM was -34 the very next week against UNLV.
Had Michigan beaten Utah in the opener, I wonder what the line would have been? -20? -21?
Later, I'd like to touch on the incredible tear Leach and Wazzu had this year. They finished 10-3 ATS*, and after starting 1-2 (ATS), they reeled off 8 straight Covers including 3 SU wins as dogs (2 SU wins as DD dogs) and could have been 4 SU wins had they not let the Stanford game get away from them.
Pretty nuts how late Vegas was to adjust to them, and again, another reason to look big picture rather than over-react to the week 1 SU loss to Portland St as a -30 fav.
*Leach ATS at Wazzu: 28-20
2014: 4-8
2013: 9-3
2012: 5-6-1
Guessing LV adjusted 2014 to Connor Halliday's brilliance/Wazzu's offense from 2013, and WSU failed to meet loftier expectations. In their defense, Halliday did get injured halfway thru 2014 and Falk (who ended up coming into his own and playing equally as brilliant) was essentially thrown to the wolves to close out 2014. All of which set up the incredible 2015 season, where Falk seemed to far surpass Vegas's expectations.
Coming off an ugly ugly Utah loss, which actually was not as close as the final score indicated, was the home-opener for Harbaugh. This really was a great # to back UM in a super-hype spot for Jim. You were giving under 2 TD, had a young, crappy team flying East for an early start, and a true freshman run-first QB in a new system with a 1st year HC. The Defense actually looked great in the Utah game, but very few people predicted we would be THAT good. Obviously there was no way to know how big of a steal -13.5 was at the time, but it's apparent looking in retrospect as they UM was -34 the very next week against UNLV.
Had Michigan beaten Utah in the opener, I wonder what the line would have been? -20? -21?
Later, I'd like to touch on the incredible tear Leach and Wazzu had this year. They finished 10-3 ATS*, and after starting 1-2 (ATS), they reeled off 8 straight Covers including 3 SU wins as dogs (2 SU wins as DD dogs) and could have been 4 SU wins had they not let the Stanford game get away from them.
Pretty nuts how late Vegas was to adjust to them, and again, another reason to look big picture rather than over-react to the week 1 SU loss to Portland St as a -30 fav.
*Leach ATS at Wazzu: 28-20
2014: 4-8
2013: 9-3
2012: 5-6-1
Guessing LV adjusted 2014 to Connor Halliday's brilliance/Wazzu's offense from 2013, and WSU failed to meet loftier expectations. In their defense, Halliday did get injured halfway thru 2014 and Falk (who ended up coming into his own and playing equally as brilliant) was essentially thrown to the wolves to close out 2014. All of which set up the incredible 2015 season, where Falk seemed to far surpass Vegas's expectations.
Mafioso- Can you elaborate on what you mean by me "not subscribing to your reality theory"...lost me there.
My Reality is that games are fixed
what you call traps I call part of the fix
I know you do not subscribe to this theory and that is fine.
you are one of the few who do not believe in it that I can still have a productive discussion with.
Another game that was way off and I escaped with a win
And a game I am sure was the game changer for the Tennessee Volunteers and their season
Week 6 Georgia @ Tennessee
Georgia was a 1.5 point favorite and rolling along looking great 4-1 record only loss was to Bama and now playing the Vowls that looked like a mess at 2-3 with losses to Florida Arkansas and Oklahoma
Only wins were vs Bowling Green and West Carolina
Down 24-3 Late in the 2nd Quarter the Vowls scored 2 touchdowns in a span 5 minutes and won that game 38-31
That game taught the Vowls how to win
they went on to lose but cover vs Bama and went on an ATS tear going 5-2 ATS after that game
Mafioso- Can you elaborate on what you mean by me "not subscribing to your reality theory"...lost me there.
My Reality is that games are fixed
what you call traps I call part of the fix
I know you do not subscribe to this theory and that is fine.
you are one of the few who do not believe in it that I can still have a productive discussion with.
Another game that was way off and I escaped with a win
And a game I am sure was the game changer for the Tennessee Volunteers and their season
Week 6 Georgia @ Tennessee
Georgia was a 1.5 point favorite and rolling along looking great 4-1 record only loss was to Bama and now playing the Vowls that looked like a mess at 2-3 with losses to Florida Arkansas and Oklahoma
Only wins were vs Bowling Green and West Carolina
Down 24-3 Late in the 2nd Quarter the Vowls scored 2 touchdowns in a span 5 minutes and won that game 38-31
That game taught the Vowls how to win
they went on to lose but cover vs Bama and went on an ATS tear going 5-2 ATS after that game
ALL DUE RESPECT.................seriously this time...............
I think both of you boys are making this way too complicated... *ADDING FACTORS FAR OUT OF YOUR CONTROL.......to your handicapping........... note: it's tough enough as is....don't add in 'unseen' forces... wtf
FIXED GAMES? *a really tired topic....has it happened?.....sure WHY would it possibly HURT YOU.....more than HELP you anyway?....gotta be 50/50 right?
this is why it's a complete waste of time .....esp in a wagering forum.....why even get out of bed each day....if you think YOU are gonna be a VICTIM of each RANDOM occurrence????
IF.....you feel the deck is constantly stacked against you......you are most likely a LOSER / dumbazz.....and should NEVER bet anyway
Sometimes it's IMPOSSIBLE to predict what a team is gonna do....
Oregon?........Helfrich didn't know I guarantee you....how could YOU or I ???......Leach had no idea if he was gonna be fired mid-season or win out....ZERO indicators really that his D would improve overnight / Falk *you would stay healthy AND figure it out *you don't have to bet these teams you know
NOTE: like my buddies do.....why wait until AFTER the game is OVER.....and go "why didn't I bet so and so?....man that was SO easy !!!.....I should have known!"........ *sure.....go back and see if you missed something.....BUT only from a match-up / situational or technical standpoint
Many teams have a 'preferred' role..... eg. at home as favorite.....on the road as a dog.....some simply match up poorly vs another (Bama > Ole Miss)........THIS is the explanation most every time
Here's a few WTF games.......... * EVERY SINGLE ONE EXPLAINED BY A MATCH-UP / SITUATIONAL EDGE........and / or a matter of luck....sometimes you fumble the ball bounces your way....sometimes it don't *no elements of the SUPERNATURAL affected the outcome
NW / TREE Ark / Toledo Fla / Ole Miss Ga Southern / W Mich Ga St / Ga Southern Penn St / Illinois Mich St / Ohio St Navy / Memphis Penn St / Temple New Mex / Boise S Ala / SDSU Tx / Iowa St Troy / NMSU Virg / Boise
* many more
Put in the work.....'invest' in a solid NUMBER.......then forget it..........move on to the next one............
Humble when ambitious - gracious when successful - resilient when you fail.
ALL DUE RESPECT.................seriously this time...............
I think both of you boys are making this way too complicated... *ADDING FACTORS FAR OUT OF YOUR CONTROL.......to your handicapping........... note: it's tough enough as is....don't add in 'unseen' forces... wtf
FIXED GAMES? *a really tired topic....has it happened?.....sure WHY would it possibly HURT YOU.....more than HELP you anyway?....gotta be 50/50 right?
this is why it's a complete waste of time .....esp in a wagering forum.....why even get out of bed each day....if you think YOU are gonna be a VICTIM of each RANDOM occurrence????
IF.....you feel the deck is constantly stacked against you......you are most likely a LOSER / dumbazz.....and should NEVER bet anyway
Sometimes it's IMPOSSIBLE to predict what a team is gonna do....
Oregon?........Helfrich didn't know I guarantee you....how could YOU or I ???......Leach had no idea if he was gonna be fired mid-season or win out....ZERO indicators really that his D would improve overnight / Falk *you would stay healthy AND figure it out *you don't have to bet these teams you know
NOTE: like my buddies do.....why wait until AFTER the game is OVER.....and go "why didn't I bet so and so?....man that was SO easy !!!.....I should have known!"........ *sure.....go back and see if you missed something.....BUT only from a match-up / situational or technical standpoint
Many teams have a 'preferred' role..... eg. at home as favorite.....on the road as a dog.....some simply match up poorly vs another (Bama > Ole Miss)........THIS is the explanation most every time
Here's a few WTF games.......... * EVERY SINGLE ONE EXPLAINED BY A MATCH-UP / SITUATIONAL EDGE........and / or a matter of luck....sometimes you fumble the ball bounces your way....sometimes it don't *no elements of the SUPERNATURAL affected the outcome
NW / TREE Ark / Toledo Fla / Ole Miss Ga Southern / W Mich Ga St / Ga Southern Penn St / Illinois Mich St / Ohio St Navy / Memphis Penn St / Temple New Mex / Boise S Ala / SDSU Tx / Iowa St Troy / NMSU Virg / Boise
* many more
Put in the work.....'invest' in a solid NUMBER.......then forget it..........move on to the next one............
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