Here is the link to my full write-up on this game. BOL
The Tigers offense has many shortcomings. They struggled to put points on the board when faced good defenses. In 4 games vs Louisville, ND, Boston, and Florida ST they averaged about 24 ppg with a combined +3 in TO's margin. I am certain that Tide's defense is much better than these 4 defenses. The Tigers offense is very similar to the Southern Cal team under Lane Kiffen, a lot of quick slants, short and screen passes. These plays work wonderfully vs weak and slow defenses. A 2 yards pass can turn into 80 yards TD. Problem is these plays won't work vs fast defenders. The Tigers rarely go with deep balls, and when do had little success with it.
To beat the Tide you need star-power in your receiving corp. A good receiver is just simply not good enough. Their best receiver Artevis Scott is more of a possession receiver than a big threat. Further more, QB Watson racked up a lot of yardage on QB-designed runs or QB-draws. He does not improvise himself often enough with great opportunity for big plays either by his legs or his arms. The kind of plays when the pocket completely collapsed, the QB running for his life but found wide open receiver down field or gained 20 yards by his legs.
The Tigers will have their moments in the game but probably too few and too little for a win. Unless QB Watson, RB Wayne Gallman, WR Artavis Scott.. all have "a game of their life", by the way it is very possible, the Tigers will not win.
It's not wise to base the analysis on other games' performance but it is a worthy angle if it occurred often enough. As I said many times the ACC stats are so inflated. Look at the Tar Heels, the ACC number 2 team. They lost to South Carolina in season opener. People argued that
it was too early in the season. The truth is it was UNC's advantage with a veteran offense and trending up in 2014, while South Carolina was a mess. The Heels gave up 645 rushing yards to Baylor knowing the Bears would run the ball, still could not stop it. Somehow the Heels was one onside kick recover to tie the game in ACC championship game vs Clemson.
Further more when CFP berth was imminent with a win, the Tigers struggled mightily against lowly Gamecocks, and pulled out a 5 points win to preserve their undefeated season and an CFP appearance.
Shall we say the SEC bottom team in Gamecocks is as good as the top
two ACC teams? No... but it certainly gave you a pause.
The Tigers victory 24-22 over Notre Dame was aided with +3 TO's and the Irish failed 2-points conversion twice. The Irish were then exposed big time in Bowl vs Ohio ST. losing 28-44.
The only hope for a Tiger's win is relied upon Watson's legs. Though a
great runner, he has been well contained by good defenses. I do not expect him to have a great game vs Tide's defense.
It's also funny to hear people talking about the Tide defense could not contain dual threat QBs. People do not think Kirby Smart and Nick Saban will tweak and adjust the defense to deal with that popular offense? Yes Johnny Manziel burned the Tide not only with his legs but many deep throws when the pocket collapsed. The kind of plays QB
Watson unable to improvise. Tide's defense has improved ever since to successfully contain dual threat QBs
In 2015 the Tide faced 6 SEC teams with dual-threat or mobile QBs and the Tide defense just suffocated these QBs. On average they gave up only 8.5 rush yards per game or 0.7 yard per carry. These QBs may not be as good as Watson but even with a great dual threat QB like Dak Prescott of Miss St, he only gained 14 yards on 26 carries. For comparison he rushed 12 times for 47 yards vs NC State
Why did the Tide lose to Ole Miss this year? They lost for giving up the ball 5 times for -5 TO's margin. That's 24 points directly from the TO's, with 17 points were early in 1H. Chad Kelly did not beat them with his legs. He managed only 21 yards in 8 carries. On top of that, Chad Kelly had a "game-of-his-life" to beat Alabama. He threw a 66 yds TD, a 73 yds TD, and a 25 yds TD. For all season long, the Tide allowed three 25-yards or longer offensive TDs, and Chad Kelly met that in one game. What's the odd that it will happen again?
It will be closer than some Tide fans have hoped for in the first half. But losing Field Postion, negative Turn-Over, a young OL, lack of star-power players, save for QB Watson, and too much talent on Tide's team will shatter the Tiger's dream.
That does not mention the huge edge in coaching. Nick Saban is the master in game planning at the biggest stage. He is 3-0 vs three undefeated teams in the glorious game of the season.