In college football predicting ATS outcomes, the 2 most important factors are the QB and the coach.
Ie. Certain coaches become very conservative with large leads and are bad teams to lay double digits with etc.
The QB controls the offensive flow much more at the collegiate level than the professional level.
When bama took a 21-6 lead the had the chance to put the game away but didnt have a QB that could score at will, and allowed OSU back in the game. OSU had a perfectly executed WR pass to score a TD at half. if that play is run again with that execution it will score 90%, but that execution will not exist at 90%.
If OSU settles for FGs like the did early against bama Ore will pull away.
12 gauge throws a beautiful deep ball and reminds me Cam Newton (only when he runs) in college with his size, and long stride, hard to bring down for less than 4 yards, but if the Ore D forces him to stay in the pocket and make the proper read and throw 6-14yd passes he will make mistakes. Can they do this, possibly and if they do they win by 10-14.
Mariota has missed open throws in his lat fw games that cost his team points but his experience will still be a large duck advantage. He needs to use his legs and take the 4 or 5 yds when its there.
Meyer without question is the best coach in CFB and one of the best recruiters, but Jones is young and cant rely on a weak offense of his opposition here.
Also we saw Meyer throw deep with a lead when he could have run the clock against bama, he plays to win which means hell take risks.
In summary I dont like the points here, either you like OSU and take the ML bc they will win SU or ORE will take a lead jones will make mistakes and Ore wins by 10.
WE all knew FSU wasnt that good, but I think there is a misconception that Bama was as great as 2011 or 2012 teams.
Neither semi final win impressed me, bama gave the game away at multiple points, not controlling the ball at the end of half, and then again throwing a pick on 1st down by asking your subpar QB to throw to the TE on the run on a rollout after the terrible punt with ball inside the 25.
FSU moved the ball at will but consistently turned it over.
Its the last CFB game of the season and so my play is the ducks -6 with a close eye on in game live wagering, but they were many better spots through out the yr.
If OSU settles for FGs and relies on trick plays like they did against Bama i dont see any chance the cover, but bet against Urban Meyer as a dog at your own risk