I have been a member of this wonderful
board for the better part of 10 years. I was an active poster for quite a
while, but stopped after I didn't bet for a while. I am back in the game, and
after a bit of bad luck with baseball on my initial deposit on Bovada, I went
5-1 (+3.75 units) in NCAA last week, with my only loss being when USC laid an
egg at B.C.
I am starting out small with my plays 1 unit = 50 dollars.
My plays for this week are
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +12 (.8
units)
I like the Blue Raiders in this spot. Being from the area, I believe that I
have a fair amount of knowledge of their opponent (Memphis). The Tigers are a
much-improved team, which isn't saying much after they were a miserable 3-9,
including one win over FCS UT Martin. Memphis is riding high after a 63-0
thrashing of one of the worst teams in scholarship football (Austin Peay) and a
42-35 moral victory versus an overrated UCLA team. Memphis was able to keep
that game close using big plays and a defensive touchdown. Without a fourth quarter
40 yard td run and a pick-six, it would have been a three score game.
MTSU, who has won five of its last six versus the Tigers, averages 247 on the
ground and should be able to run the football against the Memphis defense. The
Blue Raiders rushed for 190 against a Minnesota defense that should be at worst
equal to that of Memphis. MTSU then scored 50 on a Western Kentucky team that
would probably be no worse than a two-touchdown dog at Memphis. I believe that
Memphis is overvalued after the game at UCLA and will be looking ahead to their
Super Bowl next week at Ole Miss. MTSU, should be able to score at least 24 in
this one, and get a late cover in this one.
SOUTH CAROLINA -22 (1 unit)
While I don’t like laying 21 or more points in an SEC game, I do not think many who would take Vanderbilt in this spot realize how bad they actually are. I have watched some bad Vandy teams in the past, but this one may be the worst. It took a missed chip shot field goal for them to beat lowly UMASS. Until that point, Vandy had not scored ONE offensive touchdown. While I realize that one of those games was against a very solid Ole Miss defense, they failed to score and turned it over seven times against Temple. The biggest argument I have heard in favor of Vandy is that USC will experience a drop off after an emotional win versus Georgia. The problem with that is the Gamecocks should be able to score four touchdowns in their sleep against a Vandy team that shouldn’t score more than 10 points.
AUBURN -9.5 (.6 unit)
I believe this will be a good football game…. For about 2.5 quarters. I have a lot of respect for what Coach Snyder has done at Kansas State. While K State has some impressive defensive stats (opp 87.0 rushing yards per game), they have come against a very overmatched Stephen F. Austin and a pretty poor Iowa State team. While I realize it is a completely different year, the only measurable is to say that the same Arkansas team that allowed 595 yards to Auburn allowed 353 to Texas Tech (eight returning starters that put up 459 versus K State last year). I don’t believe that the Wildcats will be able to keep up with a high-octane Auburn offense. I see the Tigers winning this one by two touchdowns.
I will be adding more to this card, including a big play on the LSU-MISSISSIPPI STATE game.
Thanks for stopping by. Your insight and thoughts are always welcome. Best of luck to all of you this weekend.