Great question and it's taken me a long time to come up with the answer, here it is:
1. You can easily confuse yourself if you look at a lot of stats so keep it kind of simple. Look at total Off. Rank and total def. rank. statfox.com
2. go to sagarin.com and look the rank of the team and look at the schedule strength rank of a team.
3. You also must consider what the oddsmakers opening line on a game. Donbest.com
4. Then you look for patterns within the scenarios.
5. Here is an example for the upcoming weekend game southern miss and miss. st. - because this is the first week of cfb - you gotta use last years numbers - which do work but need to be careful:
Smiss (t.o) 119 (t.d) 102 (Sag rank) 199 Sag. sched (90)
29 Miss st 44 17 31 15
Miss st opens up as a 29 pt fav. Currently around 31. Miss st. is better in all 4 categories (lower the number the better). This is what I call a 0/4 situation. In this case history has shown in the first week of football - when a team is better in all 4 categories, a double digit fav. and has a better sagarin total by a significant margin Smiss (289) vice Miss st (46) - the home team should get the cover.
The key is recording the spreads, the data and results and coming up with trends. This will lead to success. It can be a pain the butt, however your willing....you will see positive results. Good luck.
Great question and it's taken me a long time to come up with the answer, here it is:
1. You can easily confuse yourself if you look at a lot of stats so keep it kind of simple. Look at total Off. Rank and total def. rank. statfox.com
2. go to sagarin.com and look the rank of the team and look at the schedule strength rank of a team.
3. You also must consider what the oddsmakers opening line on a game. Donbest.com
4. Then you look for patterns within the scenarios.
5. Here is an example for the upcoming weekend game southern miss and miss. st. - because this is the first week of cfb - you gotta use last years numbers - which do work but need to be careful:
Smiss (t.o) 119 (t.d) 102 (Sag rank) 199 Sag. sched (90)
29 Miss st 44 17 31 15
Miss st opens up as a 29 pt fav. Currently around 31. Miss st. is better in all 4 categories (lower the number the better). This is what I call a 0/4 situation. In this case history has shown in the first week of football - when a team is better in all 4 categories, a double digit fav. and has a better sagarin total by a significant margin Smiss (289) vice Miss st (46) - the home team should get the cover.
The key is recording the spreads, the data and results and coming up with trends. This will lead to success. It can be a pain the butt, however your willing....you will see positive results. Good luck.
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