Week 4

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Author: [College Football] Topic: Week 4
ksuwins PM ksuwins
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Posted: 9/16/2012 4:15:58 PM
Here some leans while I wait on lines:

OU...I'll take the Sooners up to 17 points.
ASU
Rutgers...Arkansas gonna quit?  Coach has bouncing man-teets.
Tennessee...Vols should blow it up...or is it letdown time?
ND...hot team + Michigan just isn't that good.
Gamecocks...MU's been through the wringer 2 wks in a row.
GTech
LSU/Auburn UNDER any number
WSU...CU continues to pay me
TCU...shoulda scored an assload more pts vs KU...they'll correct that.
Arizona/Oregon Over
Arizona
Utah St...CSU is really bad...USU seems worthy
Vanderbilt...bye on deck while UGA has Vols on deck.
Miami-O
USF
BSU




biggiantkiller PM biggiantkiller
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Posted: 9/16/2012 8:28:57 PM
looks good rutgers line should be interesting
DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
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Posted: 9/16/2012 8:36:38 PM
Love many of these Leans 

Best of Luck Brother
TRAIN69 PM TRAIN69
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Posted: 9/16/2012 8:48:38 PM
K St +17? Really thought this line would by 9 or 10 tops.



ksuwins PM ksuwins
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Posted: 9/17/2012 11:06:26 AM
TRAIN- i figured around 14 and would consider the Sooners up to 17. On 2nd thought, I might just back off at 17 and just root for my team.
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ksuwins PM ksuwins
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Posted: 9/17/2012 12:53:19 PM
First plays o the week:

ASU -7
OU -13.5
WSU -18.5
Gamecocks -9.5
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nostradamus12 PM nostradamus12
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Posted: 9/17/2012 4:05:07 PM
good to see you on OU buddy....like the rest other than neutral on ASU, BOL this week ksu
ksuwins PM ksuwins
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Posted: 9/17/2012 6:25:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nostradamus12:

good to see you on OU buddy....like the rest other than neutral on ASU, BOL this week ksu

Thanks, nos.  Good luck this week!
ksuwins PM ksuwins
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Posted: 9/17/2012 6:49:23 PM
OU -13.5
There are many reasons for this play, but first and foremost, Stoops owns Snyder (think I just puked in my mouth).  I think His Highness is 1-8 vs his former DC, with the lone win being a blowout in the 2003 championship game.  If you would have told me that this would be so lopsided after so many tries, I would have called you nuts.

OU is better than they've shown so far.  They'll show it Saturday night.  They may choke on a few games this season like last season, but it won't be this one.

KSU's DL is razor thin.  I realize my guys were in a bit of a funk after blowing out Miami ... still, you don't let North fuckin' Texas bulldoze you for 3 qtrs unless you have issues.

KSU's secondary?  Forget about it.  It'll be a good night for Landry Jones.

Stoops will hook KSU's LB's like a meth dealer. Arthur Brown, Tre Walker, and Justin Tuggle are all very fast, very athletic, and very aggressive.  I don't think I'm going out on a limb in saying that OU can take advantage of this.  This is Tuggle's first season at the  position, and Tre Walker's second.

KSU's offense is capable of swapping TD's with nearly any team, so this play isn't without risk (not to mention, how many times do you see a covers poster go against his team and get his behind handed to him?).  Klein had a good time throwing the ball around last week at home vs UNT, but he'll see far more heat in Norman.

Other than that, I just can't pass up a number under 14.

Note:  KSU is off next week.  Win or lose, they'll use time to heal up and get ready for another embarrassing demolition of KU and the charming Carlie Weis.  I will not be managing my money for this game and I will be unloading.




mws PM mws
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Posted: 9/17/2012 8:39:06 PM

TCU...shoulda scored an assload more pts vs KU...they'll correct that.

Given the late line move, it looked like TCU was shaving points against Kansas.  You sure they won't do it again?

ksuwins PM ksuwins
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Posted: 9/17/2012 8:43:23 PM
Don't know...but the damn line is higher than I figured it would be, so screw it.
SoonerfanTU PM SoonerfanTU
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Posted: 9/17/2012 9:08:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ksuwins:

OU -13.5
There are many reasons for this play, but first and foremost, Stoops owns Snyder (think I just puked in my mouth).  I think His Highness is 1-8 vs his former DC, with the lone win being a blowout in the 2003 championship game.  If you would have told me that this would be so lopsided after so many tries, I would have called you nuts.

OU is better than they've shown so far.  They'll show it Saturday night.  They may choke on a few games this season like last season, but it won't be this one.

KSU's DL is razor thin.  I realize my guys were in a bit of a funk after blowing out Miami ... still, you don't let North fuckin' Texas bulldoze you for 3 qtrs unless you have issues.

KSU's secondary?  Forget about it.  It'll be a good night for Landry Jones.

Stoops will hook KSU's LB's like a meth dealer. Arthur Brown, Tre Walker, and Justin Tuggle are all very fast, very athletic, and very aggressive.  I don't think I'm going out on a limb in saying that OU can take advantage of this.  This is Tuggle's first season at the  position, and Tre Walker's second.

KSU's offense is capable of swapping TD's with nearly any team, so this play isn't without risk (not to mention, how many times do you see a covers poster go against his team and get his behind handed to him?).  Klein had a good time throwing the ball around last week at home vs UNT, but he'll see far more heat in Norman.

Other than that, I just can't pass up a number under 14.

Note:  KSU is off next week.  Win or lose, they'll use time to heal up and get ready for another embarrassing demolition of KU and the charming Carlie Weis.  I will not be managing my money for this game and I will be unloading.






That is about how I see it.  It isn't impossible for KSU to cover, I just think it's unlikely.  I think OU will be tired of hearing how they aren't very good, and they will come out and play like a top 5 team.

Also agree that OU will lose once or twice this year.  At WVU is probably one of those.
2MuchJohnson4U PM 2MuchJohnson4U
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Posted: 9/17/2012 10:05:32 PM

Looks good.  Agree with most of your leans.

GL

ksuwins PM ksuwins
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Posted: 9/18/2012 10:44:54 PM
Add:

North Texas even
LSU/Auburn Under 48.5
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TRAIN69 PM TRAIN69
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Posted: 9/18/2012 10:53:03 PM
WISEGUY36 PM WISEGUY36
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Posted: 9/18/2012 11:02:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ksuwins:

First plays o the week:

ASU -7
OU -13.5
WSU -18.5
Gamecocks -9.5



I'm on ASU - 7 as well.

Best of Luck this week.   
ksuwins PM ksuwins
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Posted: 9/19/2012 7:24:08 AM
Thanks, fellas.

Add:

OU TT Over 36.5 (larger bet)
Jose_Reyes PM Jose_Reyes
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Posted: 9/19/2012 7:50:28 AM
In anticipation of your take on the OU/KSU game, this was the first thread I read this week. Your reads are always fair and unbiased. Taking a look around the boards, I can't help but think you are spot on this week. In this instance, I do believe the opening line is telling of how the oddsmakers think this game will play out. It appears the books are not afraid to take KSU money. Good luck this week, ksu
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jimmydafreak PM jimmydafreak
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Posted: 9/19/2012 9:22:42 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ksuwins:

Add:

North Texas even
LSU/Auburn Under 48.5


I like Mean Green a lot at home.

I also really like the Wazzu play.  This game will provide Leach the opportunity to do what he's been itching to do for a long time - run the score way up on somebody.

I also have a strong lean to the under in the LSU game based upon my belief that Auburn won't (or at least shouldn't) score.  My concern is that I'm convinced LSU gets into the 40s by themselves, and if they give up a cheap score as LSU is prone to do at times, this could end up being something like 41-10.  But why take a chance on the total when the books are essentially giving away free money on the side???  Auburn has virtually no shot of staying within 5 TDs of LSU.


ksuwins PM ksuwins
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Posted: 9/19/2012 7:11:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Jose_Reyes:

In anticipation of your take on the OU/KSU game, this was the first thread I read this week. Your reads are always fair and unbiased. Taking a look around the boards, I can't help but think you are spot on this week. In this instance, I do believe the opening line is telling of how the oddsmakers think this game will play out. It appears the books are not afraid to take KSU money. Good luck this week, ksu

Yo, Jose_Reyes, thanks for the props.  We'll see how this one turns out.  I do like the OU team total better than the side.  And I hope like hell I'm wrong on both and the Cats get the straight up win. 
ksuwins PM ksuwins
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Posted: 9/19/2012 7:16:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:



I like Mean Green a lot at home.

I also really like the Wazzu play.  This game will provide Leach the opportunity to do what he's been itching to do for a long time - run the score way up on somebody.

I also have a strong lean to the under in the LSU game based upon my belief that Auburn won't (or at least shouldn't) score.  My concern is that I'm convinced LSU gets into the 40s by themselves, and if they give up a cheap score as LSU is prone to do at times, this could end up being something like 41-10.  But why take a chance on the total when the books are essentially giving away free money on the side???  Auburn has virtually no shot of staying within 5 TDs of LSU.



Hello sir. Stellar week and may you have another.  

Ya, I like UNT's OL with returning starts and the QB, who was plenty capable of hitting the short stuff vs KSU. And I think McCarney is actually a good coach (even if he got canned at ISU) working in year 2.

WSU- can the line be too high when you're playing the most horrid program in the country?  That's what I'm going with.

LSU- ya, I'm worried that they'll go for big points...I may add the side as well.
ksuwins PM ksuwins
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Posted: 9/19/2012 7:29:54 PM
Add:
LSU -20.5
jimmydafreak PM jimmydafreak
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Posted: 9/19/2012 7:31:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ksuwins:

Add:
LSU -20.5


Atta boy!!!


ksuwins PM ksuwins
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Posted: 9/22/2012 9:09:30 AM
Updated plays:

OU -13.5 - small
OU Team Total Over 36.5 - small
Arizona -7 - small
WSU -18.5 and -19.5 - medium
South Carolina -9.5 - small
Tulsa -6
N Texas even - medium
LSU/Auburn Under 48.5 - small
LSU -20.5 - larger...jimmy play




ksuwins PM ksuwins
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Posted: 9/22/2012 9:26:38 AM
Ramblings:

OU -13.5....see comments above.  The thing you worry about here is that KSU will very likely have success running the ball.  If you do that, you can stay in the game.  GO CATS!!!!!!!  Please, Dear Lord? 

Arizona St -7...I may have been overly influenced by the Utes last game.  Screw it.  It's on my card.

WSU...A bet against CU.  This team is totally lost and Jon Embree is over challenged.  Freakin' alum and former players just HAD to have a CU guy from the McCartney tree...they forgot to require that the guy knew how to coach...this guy has ZERO head coaching experience...if you're program is a train wreck, it take a special talent to fix it.  Total "feel good" move has backfired badly.  Leach will tie this guy in knots today.

USC -9.5...MU has played two tight games where they left it all on the field.  This is a defensive vote for the Gamecocks.  MU could really struggle today.

Tulsa -6...how many times have we seen FSU step up and throw the shitstorm at a bcs conf opponent only to turn around and garbage the bed vs lower-level competition?  May have been more a "Pat" thing since he invested everything into bcs opponents.  Regardless, last week's score will not be repeated here.  Tulsa appears to be a pretty damn good team.

UNT Even....I was impressed with the Mean Green OL last week vs KSU.  Sure KSU was coming off the exciting blowout of Miami...but UNT pushed them around for 3 straight qtrs.  And McCarney can coach.

LSU/Auburn Under 48.5...yes, you run the risk that LSU hits the Over by themselves.  But...Auburn ain't gonna add much to this total and I'm sticking with it, hoping for a shutout.

LSU -20.5...don't know why I overlooked this til jimmy pointed it out above...but this is my largest play.  3 TD doesn't seem like much when 1 or 2 of them could be defensive scores.  Seems like Auburn lines are based on perception only.




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