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Author: [College Football] Topic: Team-by-Team let downs & look aheads
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#1
Posted: 7/28/2012 12:27:24 PM
Arizona let down games:

4-15-2 ATS after playing vs Washington.

3-14 ATS after playing vs USC.



Arizona look ahead games:


6-17 ATS last 23 before facing Arizona State

3-16 ATS last 19 before facing Oregon
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#2
Posted: 7/29/2012 1:31:33 AM
Just like Arizona, Arizona State is prone to look ahead situations before facing their biggest rivals. They are 3-11 SU and 3-11 ATS before facing Arizona, losing last 7 SU and ATS on the road.

They dont have a true letdown opponent but they do have problems after divisional dog wins, going 0-6 ATS since 2003 after upseting a conference foe.
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#3
Posted: 7/29/2012 8:36:22 AM
other than obvious rivals such as Ariz-Ariz St - how do you tell which teams qualify as lookahead or letdown teams or do they just back fit to the ones that happen to result in trends? For example....what makes Arix playing after Washington a letdown game as opposed to any other P12 team
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#4
Posted: 7/30/2012 2:09:30 AM
Akron lost 15 of last 16 SU and they are also 2-12 ATS in last 14 after playing Kent State. They are bad before playing KST as well, going 5-12 SU and ATS.

Air Force
is 6-12 ATS after beating Navy. Army is 3-8 ATS in last 11 after playing vs Air Force and 5-12 ATS in last 17 before facing Navy.


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#5
Posted: 7/30/2012 9:46:06 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WinAllSports:

Akron lost 15 of last 16 SU and they are also 2-12 ATS in last 14 after playing Kent State. They are bad before playing KST as well, going 5-12 SU and ATS.

Air Force is 6-12 ATS after beating Navy.
Army is 3-8 ATS in last 11 after playing vs Air Force and 5-12 ATS in last 17 before facing Navy.





guy, these statements mean absolutely nothing.

NOBODY from the time these games where played, 10,12, 15, 18 years ago, is even around anymore for either school involved.

unless you are a "System Bettor" exclusively, these statements mean nothing.

BOL guy
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#6
Posted: 7/30/2012 9:48:57 AM
what akron did 12 years ago vs kent state has no impact on what they will do vs. Kent state this year.
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#7
Posted: 7/30/2012 10:57:34 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jdnmoney:

what akron did 12 years ago vs kent state has no impact on what they will do vs. Kent state this year.

If they have been rivals for 50 years, what happens the last 12 years has some statistical significance but it is still a small sample size.

What I take from these numbers is to maybe stay away from a team or bet agianst them before and after they play their rival.

College football is largely an emotional game, and the players are inexperienced enough that they "look ahead" or "look back" to a big game.
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#8
Posted: 7/30/2012 10:59:45 AM
Akron shouldn't be looking ahead to anyone, besides Akron's soccer team.
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#9
Posted: 7/30/2012 12:27:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thorpe:


If they have been rivals for 50 years, what happens the last 12 years has some statistical significance but it is still a small sample size.

What I take from these numbers is to maybe stay away from a team or bet agianst them before and after they play their rival.

College football is largely an emotional game, and the players are inexperienced enough that they "look ahead" or "look back" to a big game.


i appreciate this,

but again,

what akron did 12 years ago vs. Kent state has NO IMPACT on how the game will go this year.

i will say the same about USC vs OREGON,

FLORIDA vs FLORIDA STATE

CLEMSON vs So. CAROLINA

what happened 12 years ago means nothing because NONE of the coaches are around from that time and the players were 8 years old at the time.

"situation" betting and trends like this seem useless to me unless it is within the last 3-4 years.

im sorry but

"
Army is 3-8 ATS in last 11 after playing vs Air Force and 5-12 ATS in last 17 before facing Navy."


means nothing to me.
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#10
Posted: 7/30/2012 12:32:30 PM
WINALLSPORTS:

i appreciate the effort of coming at this from another angle, and sending out some information to try to help out,

but as far as i am concerned i cannot use this info.

if others can, then that is great!
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#11
Posted: 7/30/2012 5:00:45 PM

some of these are nothing more than random variance (AZ-Wash) while others such as rivalry has some merit and are already taken under consideration in general capping....the danger in the random ones are they indicate nothing for the future...for example AZ 4-15 after UW....however the next 19 could just as easily go 15-4....for those that believe Arizona really does have an emotional letdown after UW (as opposed to post Cal, Stan, Ore St, UCLA,and the rest) then it's a valid trend...like any other stats people can decide what they want to use or not

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#12
Posted: 7/31/2012 2:37:05 AM
[Quote: Originally Posted by nostradamus12]

some of these are nothing more than random variance (AZ-Wash) while others such as rivalry has some merit and are already taken under consideration in general capping....the danger in the random ones are they indicate nothing for the future...for example AZ 4-15 after UW....however the next 19 could just as easily go 15-4....for those that believe Arizona really does have an emotional letdown after UW (as opposed to post Cal, Stan, Ore St, UCLA,and the rest) then it's a valid trend...like any other stats people can decide what they want to use or not

[/Quote/]

this
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#13
Posted: 7/31/2012 1:25:31 PM
Baylor is 2-15 SU and 3-14 ATS before facing Oklahoma, 2-14 SU and 5-11 ATS before facing OKST. They are also 4-13 SU and ATS after facing Texas, 3-16 SU and 6-14 ATS after facing Texas AM

Boston College is 3-12 ATS after playing ND as underdogs (0-5 ATS after upsetting the Irish).
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#14
Posted: 8/1/2012 1:58:34 AM
Clemson is 7-15 ATS in last 22 after facing NCST and 5-15 ATS in last 20 before facing NCST.

California is 2-10 ATS in last 12 before hosting USC. They have a bad ATS record after beating several PAC teams (3-12 ATS after beating AZST, 3-8 ATS after beating WAST, 3-6 ATS after beating UCLA).
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#15
Posted: 8/1/2012 3:01:51 AM
JDM...why do you worry about what some guy writes, summarizes or just throws out some opinions? I've learned if I don't like something best choice is to just leave it alone. Now you can say I'm doing the same thing here but I've seen on here u do it a lot and I finally decided to speak up. Its ok if you have an opinion on that doesn't sound right or a number is off somewhere but to bash a guy who is has some interesting points and great facts makes no sense.
Posted using a mobile device.
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#16
Posted: 8/2/2012 2:01:27 AM
Connecticut lost 7 straight SU and 5 straight ATS before facing Buffalo, losing last three as faves. They are 2-6 SU and ATS after playing Syracuse.

Central Michigan is 67-94 ATS after facing a conference opponent including 0-7 ATS last season.

Colorado State is 3-12 ATS after facing Colorado (0-5 ATS after beating Colorado), 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS all time after facing TCU.

Colorado lost 8 straight (1-7 ATS) before facing Kansas, they are 2-11 SU and 1-12 ATS before facing OKST. They won only once since 2006 after playing vs CoSt losing all 6 ATS.
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#17
Posted: 8/2/2012 12:54:17 PM

guy, these statements mean absolutely nothing.

NOBODY from the time these games where played, 10,12, 15, 18 years ago, is even around anymore for either school involved.

The schools are still around, which is the point.  

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#18
Posted: 8/3/2012 2:26:13 AM
Cincinnati is 1-8 SU and 1-8 ATS if playing @ Miami of Ohio the previous week (not after bye week). They are also 1-11 SU and 4-8 ATS before hosting Miami of Ohio.

Duke lost 21 straight after facing Wake and they are 10-22 ATS after facing Virginia. They are 8-19 ATS before facing Clemson.
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#19
Posted: 8/3/2012 3:33:37 PM
Arkansas 4-11 ATS before facing TXAM (0-5 SU last 5), 2-7 ATS before facing Florida (and Georgia) and 1-7 ATS before Bama. They are 0-5 SU and ATS after beating LSU.

BYU 2-8 ATS after beating UTST and 5-9 ATS before UTST.

East Carolina is 1-5 SU and ATS before NCAR and 1-3 ATS after NCAR.

Eastern Michigan lost 12 straight before CMICH and 13/17 more WMU. They are also 3-16 SU and 3-13 ATS before Ball State. They are 1-10 SU after WMU (4-9 ATS).

Thats it for the weekend as I will not be around Sat & Sun.
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#20
Posted: 8/5/2012 4:27:49 AM
Florida after winning or losing by 4 or less against Georgia are 0-9 ATS if Georgia had the better YTD record in that game. Last year Florida lost ATS in this situation against Vandy. They are 2-10 ATS if favored by more than 25 before facing FSU.

Florida State 4-8 ATS last 12 before Florida and 2-7 ATS last 9 after Miami Florida.
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#21
Posted: 8/6/2012 11:57:41 AM
Georgia is 8-20 ATS after playing Florida on neutral site. They are also 0-9 ATS in last 9 if favored by 9 or more before playing Florida.

Houston is 6-12 ATS before facing Texas, 7-13 ATS before facing SMU, 1-9 SU and ATS after TCU, 4-11 ATS after Baylor, 7-12 ATS after SMU.
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#22
Posted: 8/6/2012 12:09:24 PM
  BOL to you, dude! 
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#23
Posted: 8/6/2012 1:12:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jdnmoney:




guy, these statements mean absolutely nothing.

NOBODY from the time these games where played, 10,12, 15, 18 years ago, is even around anymore for either school involved.

unless you are a "System Bettor" exclusively, these statements mean nothing.



I disagree.  You can implement some of these situational plays into your gameplan.  These trends point to more mindsets of players in certain situations.  Yes, the players are different, but the mindsets and situations are the same.  Just one tool to use, although I wouldn't use them exclusively.
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#24
Posted: 8/6/2012 2:02:41 PM
Nice! Just at a minimum one has to look at who a team played the week before and who they have the next week.
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#25
Posted: 8/6/2012 3:55:08 PM
People who break games like this down drive me crazy, tell me the game, what your score prediction is and why!
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