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Author: [College Football] Topic: North Texas / LSU
eddothebook send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 7/8/2012 8:58:06 AM
Could anyone possibly think of a more lop-sided, best-vs-worst, away-vs-home, home opener "tune-up game" where an elite schedules a piss poor team only to kick the living garbage out of them?

I mean, LSU is coming off being shut out in the NC game, they are bound to pile up a bunch of points right? And I just don't see how NT will score. In fact, there will be enough 3 and outs to give LSU offense more possessions. Not to mention turnovers.

What will the spread be? 44? That's a lot of points! We're talking the caliber of TCU vs New Mexico... a medium-good team needing every style point it can squeeze out out of one of the bottom 5 schools in the nation in order to prove something.

What worries me is LSU has garbage all to prove this season. They will be in the NC game against the Pac-12 Champion no matter what. They can win this game 87-0 if they wanted to. The question is, will they want to?

A 44-3 score probably still loses ATS! We're gonna need something like 55-10 MINIMUM.

And last year as good as LSU was, they broke the 44-point mark 3 times, one time against Northwestern State and one time when they won by "only" 26.
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#2
Posted: 7/8/2012 10:28:44 AM
i have spoken several times on this game, and i feel that it would be extremely foolish to lay 40+ points with LSU. so many times they have these weak teams come into their home stadium and huge spreads are never covered. 


last year they were -42.5 vs WKy and won 42-9 but it was 14-7 at half and 21-9 after 3 quarters. the spread was never in doubt. they werent going to cover that. and they didnt cover the last time they played UNT also. 

people's arguments have been, Oh but its going to be a different offense this year, they are hungry, they are motivated to kick the crap out of UNT. 


i am going to have to pay to see it. because if the line is anywhere close to 40 i am going to think about it and if its 45+ im going to drop the hammer on UNT. 


Similar to the 2007 year when USC was so dominant and opened the season at home against a crappy idaho squad (who was just 1-11 SU AND 3-8 ATS, SO THEY WERE HORRIBLE) the line was -47 and the final was 38-10...


again, please make your own decisions, and i am not saying the score couldnt be 55-3 LSU. but i am going to have to get a line of LSU-37 or somewhere closer to that, or pay to see them cover the 40+

2011 vs WKY -42.5:              WIN 42-9      NO COVER
2010 vs Mcneese st -42:       WIN 32-10    NO COVER
2008 vs North Texas -42:      WIN 41-3      NO COVER


does anyone else see a pattern here. when LSU is favored by 40+ they fail to cover, its just that simple. i have a feeling this will be another 42-3 or 45-7 or 48-7 type game so i am going to see value in UNT+45 or higher. 



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#3
Posted: 7/8/2012 11:09:55 AM
I think LSU wins 66-0.  They will want to get Mettenberger some confidence IMO.  And like you said the end of LY left a very bad taste in their mouth, as they generated almost no offense vs BAma.

The equalizer in games like this is adrenalin, which will be on the side of NT, but that wears off as fatigue sets in.  Adrenalin is why you sometimes see teams like NT hang with an LSU for a quarter or two. 
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#4
Posted: 7/8/2012 7:49:29 PM
LSU doesn't normally play the "style" of football to cover huge spreads but it would not surprise me this year. It'll be a no play for me. I need to see how far that offense has progressed before laying big points with LSU.
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#5
Posted: 7/8/2012 7:53:30 PM

Even with the back-ups in, I don't see how NT scores at all in this game.

Only way you'll see a TD from NT is a pick-6 or costly LSU turnover on their own 10yd line.

LSU 50+ (20+ will come from the D) NT 0-3

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#6
Posted: 7/8/2012 8:43:43 PM
I'd love to think so but I will wait and maybe make a first half wager
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#7
Posted: 7/8/2012 10:11:41 PM
GUYS,

i respect the conversation and individual opinions, but what have you seen from LSU over the last 4-5 years which makes you think they can score 50+ points on anyone?

frequently they play crappy teams, worse than north texas.

-Mcneese St
-Tulane
-W. Ky
-No. Texas in 2008


and they never score 50. i just dont see it. are you really prepared to lay 6 or 7 touchdowns with a team that has been notorious for Offensive Flounder?

im not  

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#8
Posted: 7/8/2012 10:35:11 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by jdnmoney:

 

lay 6 or 7 touchdowns

I know LSU isn't close to an offensive juggernaut, but if they can get 6 scores, that may just do it.

No way vegas puts this spread above 40 (then again, wouldn't be shocked if it was -42/-43), but given NT won't be able to muster a single TD....6 may be all we need, 7 to be safe -

jd

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#9
Posted: 7/8/2012 10:41:54 PM
projected spread is 43


if it is lower than 40, LSU might be a play
if it is higher than 45 North Texas WILL be a play for me...

again, i will have to pay to see LSU win by 50+



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#10
Posted: 7/8/2012 10:42:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cherokee10:

I know LSU isn't close to an offensive juggernaut, but if they can get 6 scores, that may just do it.

No way vegas puts this spread above 40 (then again, wouldn't be shocked if it was -42/-43), but given NT won't be able to muster a single TD....6 may be all we need, 7 to be safe -

jd




why NO WAY

almost every year LSU is favored by 40+ against someone? it happens all the time.

NO WAY? Cmon guy, your better than that
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#11
Posted: 7/8/2012 10:53:21 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by jdnmoney:



why NO WAY

Wishful thinking.... let's be honest....this isn't even a top 5 play for me in week 1....but it's going to be very tough to lay off.

 

 

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#12
Posted: 7/8/2012 10:58:14 PM
Does anybody know if North Texas is projected to be any good in their conference this year? Not that it matters but I don't have a clue about them. So much research and so little time!!
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#13
Posted: 7/8/2012 11:06:59 PM
they are projected to be bottom half of the sun belt...maybe win 3-4 conference games and 1-2 non conference so at best 6-6...they are very experienced on the D line, LB core and Secondary...they also added a corner from Oklahoma Univ. who will play this year. they have everyone back on offense exept their best player from LY RB Lance Dunbar. 


Last year UNT played alabama and were 47 point underdogs


the final was 41-0



UNT has covered 3 in a row as 40+point dogs
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#14
Posted: 7/8/2012 11:20:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by blowoutgm:

Does anybody know if North Texas is projected to be any good in their conference this year? Not that it matters but I don't have a clue about them. So much research and so little time!!


1st......you guys stop talking about this game.....

only lay the BIG WOOD .....with a dominant team returning a PROVEN performer at QB....on the field that is.....not in bars or at a JUCO....

and that Blowout....brings up a great point.....

HOW MANY OF YOU RECOMMENDING LAYING 35 OR SO IN THESE TYPE GAMES ......KNOW A DAMN THING ABOUT THE OTHER TEAM?......

LSU will be favored by 38 ish ....and should climb
they will win by 35-45 points.....maybe more...maybe less

Miles doesn't seem to like running it up...remember LY vs (Ole Miss?)....taking a knee 4 straight times  

Respected Lean Green HC McCarney suffered a stroke in the spring...Lester might not be too keen in embarrassing them ....

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#15
Posted: 7/8/2012 11:23:25 PM

Boy, I miss the Tom Osbourne days when they would steam roll teams like this 70-0. Nebraska must have made a lot of gamblers and boosters happy back in the day- too bad I was too young to gamble then-

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#16
Posted: 7/9/2012 1:02:08 AM

i have already posted 56-0...

those of you giving n texas 10, please tell me exactly how they are going to get 10, better yet, how are they going to get past midfield, or even get more than 100 total yards and/or 5 1st downs...

you have to throw out lsu's past performance against bad teams or even the incomptence of miles...lsu will cover ats whatever it is...i will take lsu up to -45...

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#17
Posted: 7/9/2012 1:05:54 AM

the laying off the old stroke victim ball coach may work ats if lsu is coming off a big win and playing on anything other than week 1 after being humiliated by bama in the last game of last year...LSU rolls 56-0...

this is my 2nd ranked game after nebraska -15 over s miss...

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#18
Posted: 7/9/2012 1:13:12 AM
man longhornhoosier,

LSU must be the best team ever to step on the field if you are that adament that UNT wont have more than 100 yards, only 5 1st downs and not cross mid-field.


how did WKy do it last year?


you are delusional if you think they will hold UNT to 5 1st downs and 100 total yards.

do you realize how bad LSU was on offense last year against teams good and bad. why would you want to lay -45?

and if you do? i will take the bet, Juice Free...

whatever you want on LSU-45


again, i respect your opinion, but unless you know something we dont know i refuse to say LSU will win by more than 45
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#19
Posted: 7/9/2012 1:21:52 AM

i am not delusional...n. texas lost their record holding running back...they are going into death valley with a sophomore qb that is nothing special...and a horrible secondary...have you researched N Texas, yet???

you are delusional if you think this is a typical lsu game...as i have said before, your advocacy of a marginally competent miles coaching a disinterested LSU team against Idaho in week 3, after destroying N Texas at home by 50+ and Washington by 30+ at home, and as a 43 point favorite against Idaho, your perspective may hold water...(unless ZM is the 2nd coming of Cam Newton) there is no way in hell I will take LSU -40+ against Idaho... this 1st game is different...in summary, your perspective on LSU in week 3 against Idaho will be spot on...in week 1 you can throw that out the window for the reasons that i have cited...

 

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#20
Posted: 7/9/2012 3:32:41 AM
I don't think I can trust this over-spoiled auto-NC qualifying piece of garbage boring team anymore.

Last year I believe they covered 6 spreads in a row. Then came the game against Kentucky. LSU had won the previous 2 meeting by a combined score of 89-0.

They barely, methodically score 35 in 4 quarters all while holding UK to almost no offense. Then on the final drive, literally allow Kentucky to walk into the end, while producing more yards than all the game combined.

The spread was 31.
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#21
Posted: 7/9/2012 9:30:05 AM
the kind of banter that goes on in this forum is comical at times...


first of all, BookieAssassin hit on most key points, and is the post you should be reading if you are interested in this game... but i will lay out a few points of my own...


1) the spread on this game will NOT be 40+... yes, LSU has been favored by 40+ points frequently over the years... but those are midseason games... the books do not post lines of 40+ in week 1... just doesn't happen!

2) LSU is never a good bet to cover a 40 pt spread!  they are not that kind of team... they call off the dogs too early, and their offense is not potent enough...

3) i don't see how what happened at the end of last year serves as a strong angle for betting this game... just think those kinds of "angles" are over-rated and over-used... if that is your reason for betting on LSU, i think you are taking the wrong approach!


GL!
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#22
Posted: 7/9/2012 9:36:04 AM

lsu notoriously plays down to their comp...the kentucky game you cite is no exception...i hope the spread for the n texas game is 40 and under...over 40 is always a concern, but i still think in week , lsu can and will cover whatever the vegas/offshore cappers put out there...

another angle i have cited on lsu's motivation to destroy and n texas and cover is the fact that it is a team from a fertile DFW recruiting ground for lsu.  in addition, with the new segway by the sec by accepting texas A&M,lsu should be able to broaden its appeal to texas recruits by destroying texas teams n texas and Texas A&M this season...that may further motivate fruitcake miles to take n texas to the woodshed in week 1...

capping from a talent perspective, lsu could win this game 80 to 0 if it it wanted to...that's the thing with lsu that i know concerns a lot of you, with miles you have a marginal eccentric coach and an often disinterested team that lacks discipline though uber talented...

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#23
Posted: 7/9/2012 9:51:08 AM
I can't believe there is a thread about this game. Who cares if LSU wins by 7 or 70?? Once again, they are going to be a solid team and a team to watch around the country.
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#24
Posted: 7/9/2012 10:07:39 AM
bama - this is a betting forum...of course no one cares about this mismatch and any indication of season performance...its all about 1) what will be the spread, 2) will LSU be motivated and talented enough to cover...so people can pick the best games to place a wager...
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#25
Posted: 7/9/2012 10:16:08 AM
I agree longhorn but in my opinion it is a little crazy to bet a cupcake opener with a spread of more than 17-21. The talent is there but can the talent play in sequence and a seamless fashion. Too risky in an opener. BOL to you!
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