|Tonight is my legendary Bowl Play of the Year, it is on the total... as it was a few years back when Florida Played Oklahoma in the national Championship Game and we cashed the Under easily.
Posted: 1/9/2012 3:32:13 PM
Tonight looks very mysterious at first given the first 9-6 match-up and the initial O/U line on the BCS championship game coming out at 40.
However, I think tonight wil go over that number with relative ease. A closer examination of the numbers and situation make this play the strongest of the bowl season in my opinion. I have been very fortunate with my systems in Bowl Games and I will give you my insight into a few of these (Don't have time to write everything, but here are my notes loosely tied together).
The biggest overall factor.... the total is flat out a bogus number.
Any good capper (and I used to work in the odds making business)
will tell you that the numbers have real total way higher (in fact I actually have it at 47 to 47.5 in my own power numbers.)
It does not take rocket science to understand the odds-making philosophy on splitting the money on the second match-up of this series. They vegas number crunchers had very few options on this game but to lower (or keep the same) the total. Thanks to the first meeting 9-6 final, there was no doubt that the public and wise guys would all be doubting either teams ability to score. Here within' lies the problem with the line... the line is based on short term public opinions and not facts. For those newbies reading, wagers placed based on short term opinions are a major reason there are giant hotels in the middle of the desert.
So how do they get to 41?...The first meeting between these two teams was a totally different circumstance. There was no feel out process prior to that game, the teams were pitted with a lot unknown about each other (remember back then they were still playing to get in to this game.) This tie around, the uncertainty is gone. Now they know the outcome is A or B. Trust me, it lets you play/coach looser without all the 100's of BCS theories flying around. Win or lose are the only outcomes.
These teams, now familiar with one another know what they can handle now without having to feel each other out. They can game plan to attack without having to strategies reactively (aka...the half time coaching adjustments were made a month ago when the matchup was announced.)
Look for LSU QB Jordan Jefferson to add a level of offense not as defensible (as the first meeting) for Alabama. Alabama will probably have to keep a man off the line to spy Jefferson. This will be a major difference and will leave open space for other LSU plays.
Alabama killed it's TD drives in the first game, twice with substitution penalties, that won't happen tonight.
Look for these two coaches to have the highly touted offensive units to have the bugs worked out of their offensive shifts and pre snap moves. They have had time to look at each others defensive tendencies and will utilize their weapons more effectively. I a certain Alabama will spread the LSU D more and use RB Trent Jefferson in these situations. Similarly, look for LSU to use QB Jefferson on option pitches and then catch Alabama with passes to newly found weapon Brad Smelley.
Take the free TD the books are giving you, it will be a shootout. Bowl Game Of The Year: Alabama Vs LSU OVER 40!