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Author: [College Football] Topic: Bowl Total Of The Year: ALABAMA VS LSU
m15525 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#1
Posted: 1/9/2012 3:32:13 PM
Tonight is my legendary Bowl Play of the Year, it is on the total... as it was a few years back when Florida Played Oklahoma in the national Championship Game and we cashed the Under easily.

Tonight looks very mysterious at first given the first 9-6 match-up and the initial O/U line on the BCS championship game coming out at 40. 

However, I think tonight wil go over that number with relative ease. A closer examination of the numbers and situation make this play the strongest of the bowl season in my opinion. I have been very fortunate with my systems in Bowl Games and I will give you my insight into a few of these (Don't have time to write everything, but here are my notes loosely tied together).

The biggest overall factor.... the total is flat out a bogus number.
Any good capper (and I used to work in the odds making business) 
will tell you that the numbers have real total way higher (in fact I actually have it at 47 to 47.5 in my own power numbers.) 

It does not take rocket science to understand the odds-making philosophy on splitting the money on the second match-up of this series. They vegas number crunchers had very few options on this game but to lower (or keep the same) the total. Thanks to the first meeting 9-6 final, there was no doubt that the public and wise guys would all be doubting either teams ability to score. Here within' lies the problem with the line... the line is based on short term public opinions and not facts. For those newbies reading, wagers placed based on short term opinions are a major reason there are giant hotels in the middle of the desert.

So how do they get to 41?...The first meeting between these two teams was a totally different circumstance. There was no feel out process prior to that game, the teams were pitted with a lot unknown about each other (remember back then they were still playing to get in to this game.) This tie around, the uncertainty is gone. Now they know the outcome is A or B. Trust me, it lets you play/coach looser without all the 100's of BCS theories flying around. Win or lose are the only outcomes. 

These teams, now familiar with one another know what they can handle now without having to feel each other out. They can game plan to attack without having to strategies reactively (aka...the half time coaching adjustments were made a month ago when the matchup was announced.) 

Look for LSU QB Jordan Jefferson to add a level of offense not as defensible (as the first meeting) for Alabama. Alabama will probably have to keep a man off the line to spy Jefferson. This will be a major difference and will leave open space for other LSU plays. 

Alabama killed it's TD drives in the first game, twice with substitution penalties, that won't happen tonight. 

Look for these two coaches to have the highly touted offensive units to have the bugs worked out of their offensive shifts and pre snap moves. They have had time to look at each others defensive tendencies and will utilize their weapons more effectively. I a certain Alabama will spread the LSU D more and use RB Trent Jefferson in these situations. Similarly, look for LSU to use QB Jefferson on option pitches and then catch Alabama with passes to newly found weapon Brad Smelley. 

Take the free TD the books are giving you, it will be a shootout. Bowl Game Of The Year: Alabama Vs LSU OVER 40!

Good Luck!!!
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#2
Posted: 1/9/2012 3:40:03 PM

GL Sir..!

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#3
Posted: 1/9/2012 3:40:14 PM
Trent jefferson? You mean richardson, and smelley plays for Alabama. Shootout? Clearly you have not watched these two teams play.
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#4
Posted: 1/9/2012 3:41:35 PM
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#5
Posted: 1/9/2012 3:41:54 PM
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#6
Posted: 1/9/2012 3:45:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PrimeTime41885:

Trent jefferson? You mean richardson, and smelley plays for Alabama. Shootout? Clearly you have not watched these two teams play.

As I said, these are repasted notes....obviously I meant Richardson. trust me genius, I know these teams better then you think.
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#7
Posted: 1/9/2012 3:49:55 PM
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#8
Posted: 1/9/2012 3:50:36 PM
Why did you stop working in the odds making business. I heard a real oddsmaker on a  sports talk radio show being interviewed in Neveda and he said it was a high paying gig with little pressure because when the first line comes out for example Harrahs Super Bowl line being the first to go public it was pretty much follow the leader for the rest of the Casinos and Vegas almost always wins so the Casinos are always on good terms with the line makers. according to this linemaker. and he said it pays great and you deal with sports all day.
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#9
Posted: 1/9/2012 3:58:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MikeMed:

Why did you stop working in the odds making business. I heard a real oddsmaker on a  sports talk radio show being interviewed in Neveda and he said it was a high paying gig with little pressure because when the first line comes out for example Harrahs Super Bowl line being the first to go public it was pretty much follow the leader for the rest of the Casinos and Vegas almost always wins so the Casinos are always on good terms with the line makers. according to this linemaker. and he said it pays great and you deal with sports all day.

A ton of innovation... less humans more software (like try Googling "Midas Sports Odds Maker at M casino").

The industry is not really about making lines as much as it is about protecting the book. Lower limits, more BS, gimmick odds and such. Today even some of the big books have gone to 500 limits on college basketball totals..WTF is that? 

So now... all the big money plays off-shore. They almost all have their own in-house guys that they do pay well. However, if you want to make good money consulting you have to work for them... (AKA...move out of the USA and never be aloud back in without the DOJ on your behind.)
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#10
Posted: 1/9/2012 3:58:48 PM
Good luck always love reading your write-ups.
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#11
Posted: 1/9/2012 3:59:40 PM
Hopefully the 41 that my book has to offer me doesn't bite me in the behind when the score is 24-17 Bama and I get a push and everyone else wins. Or 24-16.
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#12
Posted: 1/9/2012 3:59:43 PM
makes sense --------gl to ya
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#13
Posted: 1/9/2012 4:02:20 PM
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#14
Posted: 1/9/2012 4:06:14 PM

good write up.........

GL tonight,,,,,,,,,,,

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#15
Posted: 1/9/2012 4:14:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ohmyyikes:

Hopefully the 41 that my book has to offer me doesn't bite me in the behind when the score is 24-17 Bama and I get a push and everyone else wins. Or 24-16.

I wouldn't sweat it.... I kind of like it to go over 41 in the first half.

Remember too.... even a 17-17 after regulation you are still in it with the college OT's.

Simply to much talent out there not to be at least 20-20 after 4 quarters (probably more like 2 qtrs.) First game was an anomaly, trust me. The total should be 47. 
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#16
Posted: 1/9/2012 4:15:36 PM
m15525 ...Any opion on this play... TOTAL o7½-110 (1Q ALABAMA vrs 1Q LSU)

I'm starting too like this play alot ...
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#17
Posted: 1/9/2012 4:23:36 PM

what happened with your "legendary bowl game of the year" back in december???  You posted a link about a huge game, then never posted the pick.  That thread got deleted somehow, but every regular reader of these forums can concur this fact.

 

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#18
Posted: 1/9/2012 4:24:20 PM

This guy is a good capper, but does not pick better than 60%.  look through his picks and make your own judgement.  Plenty of his "total/play of the month" picks have lost.  don't overbet thinking he is some sort of guru with lock picks.

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#19
Posted: 1/9/2012 4:36:01 PM

nice!  i already hit the over this morning, gonna add some more to it now.  thanks for posting m15525!

im hoping for a shootout!!!

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#20
Posted: 1/9/2012 4:43:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by phat03:

m15525 ...Any opion on this play... TOTAL o7½-110 (1Q ALABAMA vrs 1Q LSU)

I'm starting too like this play alot ...

OK... so I bet the over in the first half and the Second Quarter. I do not bet the first quarter. Because it is usually to dangerous, even though tonight is a little less dangerous (because of the dome.)

Here is why I don't bet first quarters... coin toss. Generally speaking these 1st Qtr bets have to be in before the coin toss... which means the toss itself may determine the bet (especially on the spread) before the game even kicks-off.

Knowing who gets the ball first is critical. The team that gets the ball first should almost always be the favorite to cover the quarter (it's like a turnover without having to do anything but get the coin toss right.)

It also seems to be that the team that gets the ball first is going into the wind (if applicable.) I also wouldn't want a running team vs a passing team (and who wins the toss) to determine whether the first drive would be through the air vs. on the ground (this alone could determine the OU.)

Usually the second quarter is safe because the coaches don't leave timeouts on the field, so there will USUALLY be more timeouts during the 2nd quarter and the urgency is there (unlike the first quarter) because time expires for the half, where as the quarter ending just switches sides. In fact... you can almost always count on the last play of the quarter (if less the 45 seconds left) will be a running play to run out the quarter because the QB doesn't want to get into a rythym then have to change ends.

As much as 1st Qtr betting is scary... I recommend everyone keep a spreadsheet for all footbal games and note after kickoff for each game...what team will be getting the ball in the 2nd half. USE THIS SHEET TO BET 3rd QTR AND SECOND HALFs! 

Second half example. If a team with a 10 point lead is getting the ball first in the second half....better believe they are going to work on the clock... a few first downs and the 3rd quarter is gone. Look at who will have the wind at their back in the 3rd. If the team losing by 10 is getting the ball and has the wind with them a better then Avg shot at the over.

Always keep in mind games tied or at a FG difference at the half may go OT...so be wary of getting beat (especially in college.)

God Luck!
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#21
Posted: 1/9/2012 4:59:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bob696969:

This guy is a good capper, but does not pick better than 60%.  look through his picks and make your own judgement.  Plenty of his "total/play of the month" picks have lost.  don't overbet thinking he is some sort of guru with lock picks.


No such thing as a lock. Never claimed anything was a lock. However have been posting since 2006 and the posts only go back to late 2009. I had a run in 2008-2009 where I won 18 consecutive NBA totals, that helped.
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#22
Posted: 1/9/2012 5:03:31 PM
Is 41.5 still doable? My stupid book wont let me buy points.
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#23
Posted: 1/9/2012 5:05:04 PM
awesome write up man.  one of the best i have read on here
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#24
Posted: 1/9/2012 5:08:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ohmyyikes:

Is 41.5 still doable? My stupid book wont let me buy points.

Yes...when I have these kind of picks they aren't value plays... its generally when I take a home run swing at the books. I wouldn't take as big a swing at 42.5.... but that would be 6 TDS + at leaset another field goal drive. 6TDS is no problem tonight.

I am boldly predicting that we will be watching the second half with cigars in hand.
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#25
Posted: 1/9/2012 5:18:40 PM
Great write-up. Loved reading your reasoning and it helped to back my thoughts on the game. Obviously, it's a risk, but at least we're making it a calculated risk.

GL All 
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