Hey guys,
I've been asked why I don't (anymore) feature the obvious: Jered Weaver, Covey, Gibson, Harvey, etc. The answer is: you guys are smart, too. You don't need anybody to tell you about fading those guys. All you need to do is look at their ERA's. It would be like doing a write-up on Greinke/Dbacks -200. Rainman's Trends is meant especially for those guys who have social lives, who like to sleep at normal hours, who have day jobs (I am a college student). I like to dig deep and find the newly discovered and possibly unexpected. I try to find what you haven't thought about, so that you can add winners on top of your Covey fade, Weaver fade, etc. The guys I talk about will likely have high/low FIP in relation to their ERA or crazy home/away or night/day splits. Important things that you don't notice on the surface.
There are a ton of pitchers today who have really been struggling. I saw a lot of people caught Jimenez and Gibson yesterday, those were the only two. There are so many to keep track of today: Chacin on the road, Harvey, Zimmermann and Covey deserve initial mention. If you have already been fading these guys, there is value in continuing to do so.
Here are my pitcher fades for today.
Lance Lynn:
His 2.78 ERA is very deceiving, as his .217 babip (career average is .304!) and 5.02 FIP suggest that he's actually been very lucky so far. On the road his FIP is 6.03 this year compared to 4.04 at home, this trend is consistent with his career numbers: 3.81 road fip but just 3.10 fip at home. His night splits are very good, but even at night, on the road, he's gotten hit badly in Miami (10.03 fip) and in Washington (11.63 fip). Key statistic: Lynn 3.00 FIP vs right-handed batters but 8.28 FIP vs left-handed batters. Think Utley, Pederson and Seager.
Lynn right-handed, finesse fly ball/ground ball pitcher. Vs right-handed starters Dodgers are batting .824 ops compared to .715 ops vs southpaw starters. Vs finesse pitchers Dodgers are batting an effective .795 ops. Vs fly ball/ground ball pitchers Dodgers are hitting .745 ops. At home the Dodgers' ops is .842, compared to .721 on the road. Cards' pen 4th fewest innings pitched but 15th in terms of fip--so despite having the advantage of being so well-rested, the Cards' pen is statistically still only mediocre. Check out Dodgers TT over
Matt Shoemaker
2017 road fip 6.03 compared to 4.15 at home, consistent with career numbers: 4.51 road fip compared to 3.27 home fip. Right-handed finesse fly ball. Vs right-handed starters the Rays' ops is .797 compared to .659 vs left-handed starters. Vs finesse the Rays' ops is .838 compared to .669 vs power. Vs fly ball pitchers their ops is a solid .769. At home the Rays' ops is .769 compared to .738 on the road. Check out the Rays' 1H TT over
Here are a couple pitchers that I like today:
Carlos Carrasco
Career road fip 2.98 compared to 4.00 fip at home, this season 1.97 road fip compared to 4.57 home fip. Considerable statistical upside: 3.83 career era but 3.48 career fip. Right-handed power ground ball pitcher. Reds comparable numbers vs righties and lefties and vs fly ball and ground ball pitchers. But: .724 ops vs power pitchers, compared to .846 ops vs finesse pitchers. Ops at home (.791) inflated by encounters with Cain and Blach at home, Clay Buchholz and Gausman. A few games where they put up a ton of runs. Last year their home ops was .741 and I expect regression today. Indians' 4th best bullpen as measured by ERA. Consider Reds 1H and FG TT under (I recommend half unit each unless you really are in love with this play).
German Marquez
Seems to have figured things out lately: 1 ER allowed in last 13 innings (1.41 fip and 3.03 fip in those two outings). Phillies, on the contrary, have some things to figure out: atrocious .574 ops in last seven days. Marquez right-handed power ground ball pitcher. Vs right-handed starters the Phillies' ops is .713 compared to .780 ops vs southpaw starter. Vs power the Phillies' ops is .673 compared to .754 vs finesse. Their ops is comparable vs fly ball and ground ball pitchers. Both Phillies and Marquez have weak splits at night. Marquez has been strong in every road start, while the Phillies are stronger at home but are struggling regardless of location right now. Look at Phillies 1H TT under and Phillies FG TT under.
Good luck and happy betting!