I
honestly think we have both the pitching and offensive advantages in this one.
Call me nuts, or fall back on the old “won’t get swept at home” theory, but
Santiago has been better than Hamels so far and the Twins offense is more
productive versus lefty than the Rangers. Last outing Santiago beat the Tigers
and Hamels beat the Royals for his first win, but beating the Tigers (40.2) is
a far bigger accomplishment than beating the Royals (31.7). And, the Tigers are 4-1-1 versus lefty
starters versus the Royals 1-3-1. Those results are 5 inning results, but they
give us an objective view of probable performance versus starters. Given a lead
after 5 or 6 innings I will live with whatever bullpen I am given. The 5 inning
line will be much lower.
BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
I
honestly think we have both the pitching and offensive advantages in this one.
Call me nuts, or fall back on the old “won’t get swept at home” theory, but
Santiago has been better than Hamels so far and the Twins offense is more
productive versus lefty than the Rangers. Last outing Santiago beat the Tigers
and Hamels beat the Royals for his first win, but beating the Tigers (40.2) is
a far bigger accomplishment than beating the Royals (31.7). And, the Tigers are 4-1-1 versus lefty
starters versus the Royals 1-3-1. Those results are 5 inning results, but they
give us an objective view of probable performance versus starters. Given a lead
after 5 or 6 innings I will live with whatever bullpen I am given. The 5 inning
line will be much lower.
Any thoughts on the Brewers over? Rookie Davis hasn't pitched in two weeks and Peralta is nothing special.
That's a probable but sometimes the players are not fully awake for an early game, but the pitchers are getting their one shot in 5 days, usually ready to go. It reads as an over, but I won't play it. BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
Any thoughts on the Brewers over? Rookie Davis hasn't pitched in two weeks and Peralta is nothing special.
That's a probable but sometimes the players are not fully awake for an early game, but the pitchers are getting their one shot in 5 days, usually ready to go. It reads as an over, but I won't play it. BOL
Mr. Keys, Everyone goes through streak. I have won 17 in a row and felt like i have prognostication magic and then suddenly i couldn't win one to save the wife and kids. The same angles would reverse on me. I think your losing streak is over. But any reason why you have drop precipitously since the season started? I am pretty sure you are sticking to the same angles for your picks. Thanks
Mr. Keys, Everyone goes through streak. I have won 17 in a row and felt like i have prognostication magic and then suddenly i couldn't win one to save the wife and kids. The same angles would reverse on me. I think your losing streak is over. But any reason why you have drop precipitously since the season started? I am pretty sure you are sticking to the same angles for your picks. Thanks
Good pick, even if it loses, it's a good pick since you've found value with the Twins in this game. And Minny has a bullpen edge too.
Finding value on dogs is your strong suit, not betting totals. You never get any value betting a total minus 10-15%. Never. Betting them goes against your whole concept of betting that you have been telling us all these years, right?
Good pick, even if it loses, it's a good pick since you've found value with the Twins in this game. And Minny has a bullpen edge too.
Finding value on dogs is your strong suit, not betting totals. You never get any value betting a total minus 10-15%. Never. Betting them goes against your whole concept of betting that you have been telling us all these years, right?
Mr. Keys, Everyone goes through streak. I have won 17 in a row and felt like i have prognostication magic and then suddenly i couldn't win one to save the wife and kids. The same angles would reverse on me. I think your losing streak is over. But any reason why you have drop precipitously since the season started? I am pretty sure you are sticking to the same angles for your picks. Thanks
Thank you for the mister, whether it is deserved or not, and plenty of folks would argue the point with you, lol. I too have won 17 straight, but it was many years ago and came in on the heels of 12 straight losses. The funny thing was the 12 losses were Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and the 17 winners were Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, so my bookie went from being thousands up to thousands down in a matter of 4 days. He cut me off, told me to take my business elsewhere, lol. I have never done the same thing since, either the 12 or 17. The odds on that have to be astronomical, but since there are odds involved it has to be possible, and I swear it is true.
The point is, if you have a winning method you have to keep the faith, keep doing what you do well, and let results take care of themselves. You are going to have some streaks, nature of the beast, but developing a new "system" is not necessarily the best thing to do. A few lucky or unlucky breaks can add to a streak (+ or -) or turn it around and there is nothing we can do about luck. What matters is consistency, not on a daily basis but over the long haul.
I have had 9 consecutive winning years on Covers and this one will be too, but it will have it's ups and downs. Most of the mature, experienced thread followers understand that, I just feel for the guy that has to win every day or he is out of action, dead in the water, and should be doing something else with his time.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
Mr. Keys, Everyone goes through streak. I have won 17 in a row and felt like i have prognostication magic and then suddenly i couldn't win one to save the wife and kids. The same angles would reverse on me. I think your losing streak is over. But any reason why you have drop precipitously since the season started? I am pretty sure you are sticking to the same angles for your picks. Thanks
Thank you for the mister, whether it is deserved or not, and plenty of folks would argue the point with you, lol. I too have won 17 straight, but it was many years ago and came in on the heels of 12 straight losses. The funny thing was the 12 losses were Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and the 17 winners were Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, so my bookie went from being thousands up to thousands down in a matter of 4 days. He cut me off, told me to take my business elsewhere, lol. I have never done the same thing since, either the 12 or 17. The odds on that have to be astronomical, but since there are odds involved it has to be possible, and I swear it is true.
The point is, if you have a winning method you have to keep the faith, keep doing what you do well, and let results take care of themselves. You are going to have some streaks, nature of the beast, but developing a new "system" is not necessarily the best thing to do. A few lucky or unlucky breaks can add to a streak (+ or -) or turn it around and there is nothing we can do about luck. What matters is consistency, not on a daily basis but over the long haul.
I have had 9 consecutive winning years on Covers and this one will be too, but it will have it's ups and downs. Most of the mature, experienced thread followers understand that, I just feel for the guy that has to win every day or he is out of action, dead in the water, and should be doing something else with his time.
Why they keep inflating Texas line mind boggles me. Been easy money the last 2 days let's get it again today Key! BOL
they cater to their customers. If the market says "we love Texas" the lines are going to reflect that. There is nothing stupid or foolish about the bookmaking industry and they are experts at setting lines that will balance their action. A bookie does not sit up at night sweating the late action, he relaxes and goes to bed with his mind at ease if his action is balanced.
Always think of opening lines like an I.P.O., Initial Public Offering.
A price is offered and the market adjusts it. Contrary to what many people think the line makers do not make lines with the intention of beating YOU, the $10, $50, $100 bettor. They could care less who wins or loses, as long as they do, and that is why they care about dollars bet, not who is doing the betting or who wins or loses.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
Why they keep inflating Texas line mind boggles me. Been easy money the last 2 days let's get it again today Key! BOL
they cater to their customers. If the market says "we love Texas" the lines are going to reflect that. There is nothing stupid or foolish about the bookmaking industry and they are experts at setting lines that will balance their action. A bookie does not sit up at night sweating the late action, he relaxes and goes to bed with his mind at ease if his action is balanced.
Always think of opening lines like an I.P.O., Initial Public Offering.
A price is offered and the market adjusts it. Contrary to what many people think the line makers do not make lines with the intention of beating YOU, the $10, $50, $100 bettor. They could care less who wins or loses, as long as they do, and that is why they care about dollars bet, not who is doing the betting or who wins or loses.
You are more than ok in the Bullpen department in that Minny/Texas game
Thanx, I knew that, but I wanted to emphasize the fact that I will take a lead after the 6th inning versus any bullpen. They can stop scoring, they can shut down an offense, but they cannot create the runs to overcome the deficit. Their offense (and the opposing starter) has already failed to put them into a position to win. Just trying to emphasize a point.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
You are more than ok in the Bullpen department in that Minny/Texas game
Thanx, I knew that, but I wanted to emphasize the fact that I will take a lead after the 6th inning versus any bullpen. They can stop scoring, they can shut down an offense, but they cannot create the runs to overcome the deficit. Their offense (and the opposing starter) has already failed to put them into a position to win. Just trying to emphasize a point.
"It's only a hitch if you're in a slump. When you're on a hitting streak it's called rhythm" ~~~~~Eddie Matthews
It's only a hitch when you're in a slump. When you're hitting the ball its called rhythm.
Eddie Mathews Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/keywords/slump.html
It's only a hitch when you're in a slump. When you're hitting the ball its called rhythm.
Eddie Mathews Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/keywords/slump.html
"It's only a hitch if you're in a slump. When you're on a hitting streak it's called rhythm" ~~~~~Eddie Matthews
It's only a hitch when you're in a slump. When you're hitting the ball its called rhythm.
Eddie Mathews Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/keywords/slump.html
It's only a hitch when you're in a slump. When you're hitting the ball its called rhythm.
Eddie Mathews Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/keywords/slump.html
Bet ya had to look up the spelling of those big words.
Why did I just KNOW you would have something sarcastic to say? Well, just because I know you. And, since we have been filling each other in on unknown things about each other, NO, I am a championship caliber speller, a contest winner, hahaha.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
Bet ya had to look up the spelling of those big words.
Why did I just KNOW you would have something sarcastic to say? Well, just because I know you. And, since we have been filling each other in on unknown things about each other, NO, I am a championship caliber speller, a contest winner, hahaha.
Why did I just KNOW you would have something sarcastic to say? Well, just because I know you. And, since we have been filling each other in on unknown things about each other, NO, I am a championship caliber speller, a contest winner, hahaha.
I don't need you to tell me anything about yourself. I know all I need to know thanks to JEG53.
Why did I just KNOW you would have something sarcastic to say? Well, just because I know you. And, since we have been filling each other in on unknown things about each other, NO, I am a championship caliber speller, a contest winner, hahaha.
I don't need you to tell me anything about yourself. I know all I need to know thanks to JEG53.
I
honestly think we have both the pitching and offensive advantages in this one.
Call me nuts, or fall back on the old “won’t get swept at home” theory, but
Santiago has been better than Hamels so far and the Twins offense is more
productive versus lefty than the Rangers. Last outing Santiago beat the Tigers
and Hamels beat the Royals for his first win, but beating the Tigers (40.2) is
a far bigger accomplishment than beating the Royals (31.7). And, the Tigers are 4-1-1 versus lefty
starters versus the Royals 1-3-1. Those results are 5 inning results, but they
give us an objective view of probable performance versus starters. Given a lead
after 5 or 6 innings I will live with whatever bullpen I am given. The 5 inning
line will be much lower.
BOL
I looked hard at the Twins as well but thought maybe the under might be a better play here
I
honestly think we have both the pitching and offensive advantages in this one.
Call me nuts, or fall back on the old “won’t get swept at home” theory, but
Santiago has been better than Hamels so far and the Twins offense is more
productive versus lefty than the Rangers. Last outing Santiago beat the Tigers
and Hamels beat the Royals for his first win, but beating the Tigers (40.2) is
a far bigger accomplishment than beating the Royals (31.7). And, the Tigers are 4-1-1 versus lefty
starters versus the Royals 1-3-1. Those results are 5 inning results, but they
give us an objective view of probable performance versus starters. Given a lead
after 5 or 6 innings I will live with whatever bullpen I am given. The 5 inning
line will be much lower.
BOL
I looked hard at the Twins as well but thought maybe the under might be a better play here
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