Monday's Card *** 9/1/2014 ***
Sides
Minnesota Twins (P. Hughes) F5, +120 --- 1.00% of Bankroll
Almost locked in FG at +132 last night, but opted to wait for the F5 line to come up this AM.
I give the starting pitching advantage to the Twins in this one. Hard to bet against the Orioles' bats, but the Twins can put up runs. I expect the Twins to be in this F5. Plus, Gausman has struggled in day games.
Hughes: 8-4 w/ 2.94 ERA in 13 starts on the road; 9-1 in day games (3.73 ERA); beat Baltimore earlier this season at home.
Gausman: 4-4 w/ 4.40 ERA in 8 starts at home; 2-5 in day games with a 5.13 ERA
Philadelphia Phillies (C. Hamels) F5/FG, +120/+134 --- 1.00% of Bankroll
Teheran has been money at home this year, but rather inconsistent as of late. Phillies are playing good baseball and Hamels has been great the last few months. I will take a shot at the dog here. Splitting up the risk on this one.
New York Mets (Z. Wheeler) F5, +110 --- 1.00% of Bankroll
Washington Nationals (G. Gonzalez) FG, -105 --- 1.00% of Bankroll
Seattle Mariners (C. Young) FG, +130 --- 1.00% of Bankroll
Like the pitching match-up and the A's have really been struggling offensively… Young's style suits the dimensions at Oakland. I would lean under also, but Hammel has been all over the place as of late. I trust the Seattle bats more than Oakland's bats, so I like the FG money line best.
Totals
Philadelphia (C. Hamels)/Atlanta (J. Teheran) Under 6.5 FG, -110 --- 1.00% of Bankroll
Pittsburgh (G. Cole)/St. Louis (L. Lynn) Over 7 FG, +100 --- 1.00% of Bankroll
Everyone will be thinking under for this matchup. Two teams in playoff contention with dominant righties on the mound. Plus, these two just faced off last week in a relatively low scoring affair (8?). However, there is something that might be overlooked. Lance Lynn is a different pitcher in day games vs. night games (1-2 runs higher in day games). Same goes for Cole.
Lynn
Day: 4.88 ERA (2012); 4.58 ERA (2013); 5.56 ERA (2014)
Night: 2.96 ERA (2012); 3.83 ERA (2013); 2.07 ERA (2014)
Cole
Day: 4.28 ERA (2013); 4.22 ERA (2014)
Night: 2.68 ERA (2013); 3.38 ERA (2014)
Assuming both pitchers go 6 innings, you're looking at an expected run total of about 6 through 6 innings. Neither bullpen has been lights out. I like the over here.
New York (Z. Wheeler)/Miami (H. Alvarez) Under 7 FG, -110 --- 1.00% of Bankroll