7/10/14
Nationals @ Orioles
Recommendation: Nationals -106
The Nationals are hot right now, winning 8 of their last ten with a 2.13 ERA. They’re starting to come into their own, and now have sole possession of 1st place in the division. No one has been hotter as of late than Gio Gonzalez. Gonzalez hasn’t allowed a run in his last 22 innings pitched. His command looks great, and every pitch in his arsenal seems to be working right now. He also has a 1.38 ERA in 4 starts since being injured. Things are clicking on all cylinders for this team.
Baltimore has the ability to put up runs in bunches, but they certainly didn’t show it Wednesday night as they struggled to get good looks off of Doug Fister. Nelson Cruz, the major’s home run leader, does not own a hit in his career vs. Gonzalez. The O’s will need a strong performance out of Wei-Yin Chen if they hope to have more offensive success Thursday. Chen has a 5.39 FIP against the current Nationals roster to go along with a .308 average and .370 BABIP against him. Those numbers don’t point to good signs considering the way the Nat’s are playing right now. Take the Nationals -106.
Braves @ Mets
Recommendation: Braves +100
I’m going against the trends in this matchup as we have two teams that on the surface seem to be headed in opposite directions. New York will try to make it 5 straight wins at Citi field and finish off a sweep of the Braves tonight. This short term success can be directly credited to starting pitching, which has been absolutely superb for the Mets recently. I don’t think that success figures to continue tonight with Bartolo Colon on the mound.
Colon has had some serious 1st inning struggles in his last few outings. He’s allowed the most first inning runs in the entire major’s with 16, including 4 in the opening frame in his last start against Texas. He simply can’t find his command out of the gate, and it takes him some time to settle down. It’s paramount that the Braves take advantage of this and look to come out swinging.
Atlanta doesn’t have good plate discipline at all, but this is a rare case where that may work to their advantage. They are stocked with a ton of power, though they often go out of the strike zone and help pitchers out. I’m guessing that Colon will be intent on throwing strikes right away, possibly overcompensating while looking to avoid early trouble. Also keep in mind that the Braves were on a 9 game winning streak less than a week ago before dropping their last 4. This minor bump in the road can be directly attributed to the lack of hitting with RISP. Atlanta simply needs to take advantage of the opportunities that come their way.
Aaron Harang will be on the bump for ATL. He’s looking to win his 4th straight start. Also worth noting that he will be facing his former team, something that always gives a pitcher that extra bit of juice. Look for the Braves to avoid the sweep here and knock Colon around a bit. Take the Braves.