September Dogs - Starting with $4k

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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: September Dogs - Starting with $4k
herbshack PM herbshack
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Posted: 9/13/2012 10:44:16 PM
New Bankroll: +$4,420.03
(from $4000)
herbshack PM herbshack
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Posted: 9/14/2012 12:33:22 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:

F*** Houston by the way. If you've been disheartened by dogs this season, take a look over your spreadsheet and see if you've been betting them....like me; I have. 

If you're unaware of this: it is good to know that the Astros are leaving the National league after this season. I stopped betting them after May this year.

Wow. They still came thru thought 6-4 ; 3 runs in the 8th. Woof woof woof 
Hoyasaxa PM Hoyasaxa
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Posted: 9/14/2012 12:43:02 AM
Hey bro, didn't scroll through all your pages but you could be up thousands if you bet every Pads game in the second half-they can beat anybody now...still good value cause they feel dissed....
reckless PM reckless
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Posted: 9/14/2012 12:53:25 AM

You are on FIRE!!! Thank you for your picks!keep it up!!! couple of questions for you, are you playing both mia and kc or just one? also i kind of notice you only make 1 play per day and particular reason why?

herbshack PM herbshack
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Posted: 9/14/2012 1:53:28 PM
For today September 14th:

#929 Baltimore Orioles +138 ($59 to win $81.42)
over the Oakland Athletics
herbshack PM herbshack
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Posted: 9/14/2012 3:56:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by reckless:

You are on FIRE!!! Thank you for your picks!keep it up!!! couple of questions for you, are you playing both mia and kc or just one? also i kind of notice you only make 1 play per day and particular reason why?


That would be 'reckless.'  jk

I've heard a lot of sharper gamblers say, 'for every 15 wagering propositions take 1 or less.'

Remember: what you pass on is more important than what you take.
herbshack PM herbshack
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Posted: 9/14/2012 4:53:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Hoyasaxa:

Hey bro, didn't scroll through all your pages but you could be up thousands if you bet every Pads game in the second half-they can beat anybody now...still good value cause they feel dissed....

The Pads are 25-14 +17.18 units now all of the sudden this season since August. I suppose they either aren't a good team under the pressure of possible chances for the playoffs. More likely, they've just taken on new spirited personnel. 

Despite that though, I don't think you should bet them in EVERY game as they are -170 favorites today...everyone is thinking what you're thinking so there really isn't any value. Remember, the Padres are a bad team.

After July and before the playoffs, bad (<.450) teams facing other bad teams are a nasty 308-262 54% -42.48 units (+14.33 units fade). The way I'd look at it is fade the public. On the Pods today or pass.
herbshack PM herbshack
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Posted: 9/14/2012 4:55:43 PM
Sorry I meant <.500 there. Typo.
Trader4 PM Trader4
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Posted: 9/14/2012 5:37:28 PM
Why are you wagering $59? That's an odd percentage of your bank, less than 1.5%
pauliswilling PM pauliswilling
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Posted: 9/14/2012 5:46:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Trader4:

Why are you wagering $59? That's an odd percentage of your bank, less than 1.5%
He;s not wagering with your money so dont worry about it.Worry about your bankroll.
herbshack PM herbshack
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Posted: 9/14/2012 6:13:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Trader4:

Why are you wagering $59? That's an odd percentage of your bank, less than 1.5%

>1% is a liberal amount imo. $4k is a small bankroll though.

By the way, if you think I sound like Mr. Fat Pockets there saying $4k isn't a lot, in my humble opinion, you shouldn't be wagering at all. I went into this fully equipped to lose the entire $4k and I still am. Smarter folks might just take their 10% or so and run at this point. :)
herbshack PM herbshack
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Posted: 9/14/2012 6:16:44 PM
Again, " I went into this fully equipped to lose the entire $4k and I still am."

It is just that much worth repeating. Don't gamble with what you can't afford to lose....it doesn't really matter what my percents are. If you aren't sure and you follow or make your own plays, just stick to 1% of bankroll per play and treat them all as equal. That's not really what I'm doing here though...
Trader4 PM Trader4
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Posted: 9/14/2012 6:17:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by pauliswilling:

He;s not wagering with your money so dont worry about it.Worry about your bankroll.

Didn't ask you moron, go darn yourself pauliswillingtostickhisnosewhereitdontbelong. Take your own advice and mind your own business, or go fishing or something.
Trader4 PM Trader4
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Posted: 9/14/2012 6:20:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:

Again, " I went into this fully equipped to lose the entire $4k and I still am."

It is just that much worth repeating. Don't gamble with what you can't afford to lose....it doesn't really matter what my percents are. If you aren't sure and you follow or make your own plays, just stick to 1% of bankroll per play and treat them all as equal. That's not really what I'm doing here though...

Yeah, was trying to see what you were doing. Always open to new and better money management ideas. That just seems like an odd number.
reckless PM reckless
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Posted: 9/14/2012 6:55:33 PM
o's it is lets cash it!
CoverLane PM CoverLane
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Posted: 9/14/2012 6:59:09 PM
Herb

Good luck buddy, you live in LV?
pauliswilling PM pauliswilling
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Posted: 9/14/2012 7:19:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Trader4:


Didn't ask you moron, go darn yourself pauliswillingtostickhisnosewhereitdontbelong. Take your own advice and mind your own business, or go fishing or something.
   Well this just proves to me that not only do you have a low IQ but you are also very childish.You know Herbshacks been posting winners for days and you come with your great contribution to the thread"why did you only bet 59 dollars?",well Most people could have figured it out without asking.    Because he wanted to  By the way herbshack I took the cubs today on RL and made a killing,Love your balty pick..I have them to win their division,put 13 to win 230 and why did I bet the 13 a few weeks back? why 13 the number 13 unlucky number 13?   Because I wanted to.  Gl tonight HS!
r3coil PM r3coil
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Posted: 9/14/2012 7:33:49 PM
He's allowed to ask a question, Pauliswilling. He really wasn't asking you and it's not your thread. He didn't necessarily mean anything by it and it certainly is an odd amount given the total bankroll so there could have been a reason behind it (other than "he felt like it"). 

It appears you read into Trader4's comment as if he was insulting herbshack by asking about the bet size but it really looked like an honest question (I was wondering about it myself). 


herbshack PM herbshack
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Posted: 9/14/2012 9:30:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Trader4:


Didn't ask you moron, go darn yourself pauliswillingtostickhisnosewhereitdontbelong. Take your own advice and mind your own business, or go fishing or something.

Let's just make money!
herbshack PM herbshack
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Posted: 9/14/2012 9:31:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by reckless:

o's it is lets cash it!

 
herbshack PM herbshack
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Posted: 9/14/2012 9:33:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CoverLane:

Herb

Good luck buddy, you live in LV?

I live in Chicago, but have my guys out in Vegas. I do most of our data basing and the fellas out there fetch me some key for me.
herbshack PM herbshack
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Posted: 9/14/2012 9:37:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by r3coil:

He's allowed to ask a question, Pauliswilling. He really wasn't asking you and it's not your thread. He didn't necessarily mean anything by it and it certainly is an odd amount given the total bankroll so there could have been a reason behind it (other than "he felt like it"). 

It appears you read into Trader4's comment as if he was insulting herbshack by asking about the bet size but it really looked like an honest question (I was wondering about it myself). 



You're right. It is sad to see two good fellas get into it over internet miscommunication. Shake hands you two!

Okay well we started with $54 initially with $4k and now with $4.42k we're wagering $59. Take the bankroll and divide by 74. That's how I came up with that number.
herbshack PM herbshack
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Posted: 9/14/2012 9:45:36 PM
If anyone does in game wagering you might want to take a shot at KC and HOU down 1 and 2 right now. Both fighting home dogs. Great odds.
herbshack PM herbshack
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Posted: 9/14/2012 9:49:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:

That's 133-115 (53.6%, +54.42 [+21.9% roi]) in non-division games where the total is greater than the big key: 7.

...Miami and Kansas City [tomorrow].

This is a really good system because there are very few parameters and we've isolated dogs and it his above 50%.

Miami just came through 4-0. Woof woof!
herbshack PM herbshack
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Posted: 9/14/2012 10:23:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:

If anyone does in game wagering you might want to take a shot at KC and HOU down 1 and 2 right now. Both fighting home dogs. Great odds.

And just like that the Royals take it back 6-4. This is too easy :)
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