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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: MLB picks using Monte Carlo simulation
pramsey1843 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Mirage |
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#51
Posted: 4/8/2012 7:47:38 PM
3-8 today -13.39 units -12.02 units total

totals beta test 2-14 -13.4 units total with one left to play.

This streak would be negligible midseason, but it is very noticeable so early in the season.  I am not selling anything.  Keep following this post and you will make money.  There is no are to this it is a science.  Mathematical systems have tripled my bankroll and I hope I can help you do the same. 
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fade_monkeyman send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#52
Posted: 4/8/2012 7:51:23 PM
I'm considering an investment in developing software that uses that integrates information, possibly such a model as yours. Maybe we should discuss. Back-testing/monte carlo, do you want to bet you're in finance?
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#53
Posted: 4/8/2012 8:34:44 PM
I'm interested in money long term...not a bad couple days in April.  I'll keep following. 
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#54
Posted: 4/8/2012 8:58:42 PM
Actually engineering.  However, I have a system that models stock market opportunities as well.  It is all the same crap just a few different formulas and patterns.
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#55
Posted: 4/8/2012 10:50:15 PM
Angels -1.5 +100 1x
For tomorrow
Angels -159 4x
Phillies -146 5x
White Sox 101 1x
Giants 151 3x
Orioles 142 1x
Brewers -127 3x
Mariners 198 1x
Cardinals 117 3x
Red Sox 109 1x
Royals 101 2x
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#56
Posted: 4/8/2012 11:01:11 PM
Totals beta test 2-15 -14.5 units lol maybe i just need to flip yes to no and u have a great system

phillies u7
giants u9.5
yanks u9.5
red sox o9
royals u8

remember do not play these
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#57
Posted: 4/8/2012 11:36:13 PM
For full disclosure here are bets that are being played from system analysis

Diamondbacks to win World Series 28:1 5 units
Royals to win World Series 80:1 1 unit

Diamondbacks over 86.5 5 units
Orioles over 69.5 3 units
Tigers over 92.5 2 units
Mets over 72 1.5 units
Giants under 87.5  1 unit
Rays over 86.5 1 unit
Nationals over 83.5 5 units
Blue Jays over 80.5 1 unit

Ian Kennedy o14.5 wins 1 unit
Michael Bourn Batting Average under .285 1 unit
Nick Markakis o75.5 RBI 1 unit
Ryan Dempster o10 wins 1 unit
Jay Bruce ov31.5 hr 1 unit
                ov95.5 rbi 1 unit
Wandy Rodriguez ov10.5 wins 1 unit
Clayton Kershaw ERA u2.7 1 unit
Chad Billingsley o11.5 wins 1 unit
Greinke ERA u3.55 1 unit
Johan Santana o7.5 wins 1 unit
Ichiro o60.5 RBI 1 unit
David Freese u 15.5 HR 1 unit
Strasburg ERA u2.9 1 unit

Most HR Matt Kemp 18:1 1 unit
Highest batting avg u.348 1 unit

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GoDawsGo
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#58
Posted: 4/8/2012 11:42:13 PM
hey let us know your stock picks too
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pramsey1843 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Mirage |
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#59
Posted: 4/8/2012 11:57:32 PM
Lol a lot of my stock trades are 1 day trades in at 10 out at 3.  Next time I get a stock pick with longer range prospects I will let you know I bought it.  A lot of times they are artificially surpressed stocks.

A good example was Massey Energy bought it at 31 after the cave in sold it for 59.  My stock picks required patience.  I do a lot of "catching the knife" but will let you know.
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#60
Posted: 4/9/2012 10:32:32 AM
what was your winning % last
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#61
Posted: 4/9/2012 11:13:20 AM
year
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#62
Posted: 4/9/2012 3:19:49 PM
I don't have an overall percentage i have total units and breakdown by category.  The total units +109.32.   The system was 54.2% picking underdogs.  72.3% picking favorites.
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#63
Posted: 4/9/2012 4:45:02 PM
thats really impressive
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#64
Posted: 4/9/2012 4:49:03 PM
and on your previous five years that you simulated what did those years look like
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#65
Posted: 4/9/2012 5:01:05 PM
what does your system say for basketball tonite
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#66
Posted: 4/9/2012 6:45:57 PM
This is just some semi educated statistical analysis for basketball. Had a decent year but no system and only because you asked.  I am playing these just for grins.  My basketball unit is $40.

Wizards 1.5 (1x)
Pistons 7.5 (1x)
Thunder -3 (3x)
Lakers -3 (3x)
Spurs -3 (2x)
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#67
Posted: 4/9/2012 6:46:44 PM
I can get those years from the simulation.  I do not have it readily available, but I can find it.
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#68
Posted: 4/9/2012 6:49:22 PM
thanks and dont worry about the research. im sure you have better things to do
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#69
Posted: 4/9/2012 6:58:32 PM
Currently
Mariners 198 1x

Adding 
Mariners 222 1x

so total of 2 units on Mariners
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#70
Posted: 4/9/2012 7:32:41 PM

im on board

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#71
Posted: 4/9/2012 11:18:56 PM
All I can say is wow to the end of the lakers game.
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#72
Posted: 4/9/2012 11:29:05 PM
The Phillies are the first team to hit a freeze.  A freeze means, any suggested bet will be moved down by 4x.  If it is a negative number, the play goes away.  Obviously, the program loves the Phillies who can't hit water falling out of a boat.  Freezes happen when several different criteria are met.  The model will recalibrate the Phillies but we don't want to lose with them until it does.  This was a guard that was put in last year when the model loved the Red Sox who were awful at the beginning of the year.  It also save you from the Red Sox at the end of the year.  I will let you know when the freeze ends.
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#73
Posted: 4/9/2012 11:42:12 PM
i missed the Lakers game. But i do have to say WOW  Those were some outstanding baseball picks. Very impressive! So im guessing based on your posting that their wont be any picks for tomorrow?
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#74
Posted: 4/9/2012 11:57:11 PM

Whats your system saying for tomorrows mlb/nba? Im liking the dodgers, cardinals, new york knicks +9 etc...but would like to see what you come up with or any thoughts?

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#75
Posted: 4/10/2012 12:49:23 AM
I'm loving the other side of your o/u.  I bet the other side of 4 of you picks just for fun today, won 3 of 4.  Looking from your beta test results, looks like you have a variable backwards, which is giving the the opposite picks...lol

Your straight picks look good, im gonna follow this thread all summer....
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