INTRO The wizards will be playing in cleveland tonight , the night before thanksgiving. Cleveland comes into this game 6-7, a losing record so far that was not anticipated by anyone. December is coming closer and the cavaliers know it's time to start playing some ball. The Wizards are coming into this game second in the east with a 9-4 record. The wizards hold a 4-2 ATS and SU road record coming into this game with road losses against Heat and the raptors. The 4 road wins were relatively easy matchups but the wizards struggled heavily against better eastern conference teams on the road. Head to head cleveland is 2-3 SU against the wizards at home last 5 games and 5-5 SU overall in the last 5.
SCORING The Wizards will be playing back to back after a hard game at home against atlanta, in which The wizards only shot 42% from inside and 45% from beyond the arc, while cleveland at home shot 50% for 2 and A whooping 61% from beyond the arc against the same team. Overall on the road washington hits 46% from 2 and 35% from 3-point land, cleveland allows around the same percentages at home. BUT this is not the same cleveland defense from 3 weeks ago that allowed a team as bad as the NY Knicks to shoot 53% FG's, in fact we can see cleveland is improving their defense slow but steadily and this is not yet showing in the statistics. The true FG% allowed from the cavs would be more around the 43-45% mark rather than close to 47%. Coach Blatt is working hard on this cavs defense, and realises that defense creates offense. Especially with this cavs team that is ranked 5th in the league in fast-break points. Cleveland also manages to score 3 points more per 100 possesions than the wizards. Especially if the threepointers of the cavs (best three point shooting team in the league so far) will hit , this should be a win and cover. The biggest force for the wizards last week against the cavs was J. Wall , but this won't be true for 2 times in a row.
INJURIES Nene is probably out for the wizards and this is a very big deal despite his modest statistics so far this season. The wizards allowed 106.3 points / 100 Possesions so far while Nene is on the bench, compare this to only 91.3 when Nene is on and you don't have to be a rocket scientist to realise they missed him alot against the hawks yesterday. Overall the wizards perform around 8 Points / 100 possesions better with Nene on the court. To give you an idea the cavaliers average 95 possesions a game and the wizards 96. This combines for 191 so thats almost 16 points in a whole game.
Dellavedova, the 2nd string point guard for the cavs will be out until december. Similar to above the cavaliers perform slightly better with him playing. However with Cherry stepping up his game this should be evened out a little bit.
REBOUNDING & TURNOVERS OFF DEF TOT Cavs .165 .621 .360 Wiz's .148 .593 .327
The numbers speak for themselves and will even more so with Nene on the bench. Cavs will absolutely demolish the wizards in rebounding today, Tristan Thompson is an offensive rebounding force. remember about the fast-break from cleveland? Guess what , offensive boards result into fast-breaks. If the cavs play this out the way they are supposed to they will outscore washington by ~0.2 points per trip down the floor
Statisticly speaking the turnovers are slightly in favor of washington, but we should take into consideration the improvement of this cavs team, and the fact that the wizards are back to back.
PSYCHOLOGICAL CIRCUMSTANCES This is a revenge game for the cavaliers, it's the night before thanksgiving and the cleveland fanbase is very loyal, they will want to give something beautiful to the fans here. They had 2 days of rest and coming off a very strong defensive game against the magic. This opponent will be alot harder to deal with than Orlando but the Cavs come prepared. This is also the only remaining homegame in this series of 5 that really matters alot, the remaining are against struggling teams such as the pacers and is another 3 days away. Cavs will give it their all here.
On the other side the Wizards are on the tail end of a back to back. This game is more of something annoying for them, having to go on the road, tired and the night before thanksgiving. I expect a little bit less focus here from the wizards than we've seen in the previous games.
REFEREES Purely based on ATS records , referee advantage is with the wizards tonight. 2/3 officials have a trend of their games going OVER.
ATS TRENDS Not much to mention here since the cavaliers team has changed such an awful lot since last year and is a work in progress, thus ATS trends may not resemble reality here. Cavs are 5-8 ATS for the season. Wizards are 1-3 ATS as underdogs and 0-3-0 as Road underdogs so far this season. Wizards are 3-1 ATS on no rest and 3-0 ATS following a loss.
THE PICK This is actually a very tough game to cap. It's a rivalry (these two teams don't like eachother), it's a conference game, statistics in favor of one team trends in favor of the other and so on. Originally this line opened up at -6.5 And I wanted to buy half a point and lock it in at -6. The line is now at -7 and buying to -6 would require to lay too much juice.
My advise would be a teaser of the spread+total on this game ( 5 on the spread, 7 on the total) thus cavaliers -2 , over 193.5. As mentioned above cavs will cover the -7 if the shots from threepointland go in.
This line is kind of tricky, expected it at around -4.5 for the cavs (even considering back to back game for wizards), it's now at -7 and I just can't go against my team in this spot.
INTRO The wizards will be playing in cleveland tonight , the night before thanksgiving. Cleveland comes into this game 6-7, a losing record so far that was not anticipated by anyone. December is coming closer and the cavaliers know it's time to start playing some ball. The Wizards are coming into this game second in the east with a 9-4 record. The wizards hold a 4-2 ATS and SU road record coming into this game with road losses against Heat and the raptors. The 4 road wins were relatively easy matchups but the wizards struggled heavily against better eastern conference teams on the road. Head to head cleveland is 2-3 SU against the wizards at home last 5 games and 5-5 SU overall in the last 5.
SCORING The Wizards will be playing back to back after a hard game at home against atlanta, in which The wizards only shot 42% from inside and 45% from beyond the arc, while cleveland at home shot 50% for 2 and A whooping 61% from beyond the arc against the same team. Overall on the road washington hits 46% from 2 and 35% from 3-point land, cleveland allows around the same percentages at home. BUT this is not the same cleveland defense from 3 weeks ago that allowed a team as bad as the NY Knicks to shoot 53% FG's, in fact we can see cleveland is improving their defense slow but steadily and this is not yet showing in the statistics. The true FG% allowed from the cavs would be more around the 43-45% mark rather than close to 47%. Coach Blatt is working hard on this cavs defense, and realises that defense creates offense. Especially with this cavs team that is ranked 5th in the league in fast-break points. Cleveland also manages to score 3 points more per 100 possesions than the wizards. Especially if the threepointers of the cavs (best three point shooting team in the league so far) will hit , this should be a win and cover. The biggest force for the wizards last week against the cavs was J. Wall , but this won't be true for 2 times in a row.
INJURIES Nene is probably out for the wizards and this is a very big deal despite his modest statistics so far this season. The wizards allowed 106.3 points / 100 Possesions so far while Nene is on the bench, compare this to only 91.3 when Nene is on and you don't have to be a rocket scientist to realise they missed him alot against the hawks yesterday. Overall the wizards perform around 8 Points / 100 possesions better with Nene on the court. To give you an idea the cavaliers average 95 possesions a game and the wizards 96. This combines for 191 so thats almost 16 points in a whole game.
Dellavedova, the 2nd string point guard for the cavs will be out until december. Similar to above the cavaliers perform slightly better with him playing. However with Cherry stepping up his game this should be evened out a little bit.
REBOUNDING & TURNOVERS OFF DEF TOT Cavs .165 .621 .360 Wiz's .148 .593 .327
The numbers speak for themselves and will even more so with Nene on the bench. Cavs will absolutely demolish the wizards in rebounding today, Tristan Thompson is an offensive rebounding force. remember about the fast-break from cleveland? Guess what , offensive boards result into fast-breaks. If the cavs play this out the way they are supposed to they will outscore washington by ~0.2 points per trip down the floor
Statisticly speaking the turnovers are slightly in favor of washington, but we should take into consideration the improvement of this cavs team, and the fact that the wizards are back to back.
PSYCHOLOGICAL CIRCUMSTANCES This is a revenge game for the cavaliers, it's the night before thanksgiving and the cleveland fanbase is very loyal, they will want to give something beautiful to the fans here. They had 2 days of rest and coming off a very strong defensive game against the magic. This opponent will be alot harder to deal with than Orlando but the Cavs come prepared. This is also the only remaining homegame in this series of 5 that really matters alot, the remaining are against struggling teams such as the pacers and is another 3 days away. Cavs will give it their all here.
On the other side the Wizards are on the tail end of a back to back. This game is more of something annoying for them, having to go on the road, tired and the night before thanksgiving. I expect a little bit less focus here from the wizards than we've seen in the previous games.
REFEREES Purely based on ATS records , referee advantage is with the wizards tonight. 2/3 officials have a trend of their games going OVER.
ATS TRENDS Not much to mention here since the cavaliers team has changed such an awful lot since last year and is a work in progress, thus ATS trends may not resemble reality here. Cavs are 5-8 ATS for the season. Wizards are 1-3 ATS as underdogs and 0-3-0 as Road underdogs so far this season. Wizards are 3-1 ATS on no rest and 3-0 ATS following a loss.
THE PICK This is actually a very tough game to cap. It's a rivalry (these two teams don't like eachother), it's a conference game, statistics in favor of one team trends in favor of the other and so on. Originally this line opened up at -6.5 And I wanted to buy half a point and lock it in at -6. The line is now at -7 and buying to -6 would require to lay too much juice.
My advise would be a teaser of the spread+total on this game ( 5 on the spread, 7 on the total) thus cavaliers -2 , over 193.5. As mentioned above cavs will cover the -7 if the shots from threepointland go in.
This line is kind of tricky, expected it at around -4.5 for the cavs (even considering back to back game for wizards), it's now at -7 and I just can't go against my team in this spot.
Yep! If you watched them play against the Hawks, you'll know how much they miss him. Nene gives them stability inside. Difference between this year and last year is that they had Booker last year, whereas this year they now have to depend on Gooden or Humphries when he's gone.
Yep! If you watched them play against the Hawks, you'll know how much they miss him. Nene gives them stability inside. Difference between this year and last year is that they had Booker last year, whereas this year they now have to depend on Gooden or Humphries when he's gone.
If you did not copy and paste that and actually wrote that all up, a BIG congrats to you.
It's a little hard to believe from a guy with 26 posts but my apologies if you actually did take the time to go into that much detail because it's a rock solid write-up.
If you did not copy and paste that and actually wrote that all up, a BIG congrats to you.
It's a little hard to believe from a guy with 26 posts but my apologies if you actually did take the time to go into that much detail because it's a rock solid write-up.
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