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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: 2/1/13 NBA Thoughts
swolesbee send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
swolesbee
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#1
Posted: 2/1/2013 5:56:55 PM
January- 57-51 53%

Yes I finally updated my record lol. Had a really great month other than a 2-11 day 2 days ago. Fortunately I recovered with a 9-0 day yesterday to finish the month positively.

In regards to my record I did some weird things my first month that I won't be doing this month. If I had a large play I was counting it as 3 wins and 3 losses instead of 1 win +3 units(or whatever). It got confusing both for me and probably for viewers of my threads as well. Starting this month I will be using more traditionally accepted methods for book-keeping purposes.

Plays will be 1*, 2*, 3*, 4*, or 5*
I probably won't have time to be updating things to the penny so for time's sake each * level=1 unit. If I have a 4* win and 2* loss I will say I am +2 units on the day. Obviously I'm not factoring in juice here so at the end of the month if I am at 52-54% you can safely assume I lost money.

Enough of the boring crap. On to the plays.
3* Miami ML -120

The NBA is all about peeks and valleys for different teams. It's no different than investing. Selling high and buying low. I feel that the Heat are in the middle of a run and I want to capitalize here.

Match-ups: When the Heat go small the Pacers are in big trouble. West having to guard Lebron at the 4 is an obvious mis-match. Same with Bosh/Hibbert. Yes Hibbert has size but quick post players have destroyed him in the past. Bosh should be able to get any shot he wants against Hibbert at any time. No one can really guard Lebron but if anyone sort of can it's Paul George. Stephenson rolled an ankle last game right at the end and I haven't heard anything about his status but I doubt there is any way he is 100% since he has rolled that ankle several times. He is a KEY player for the Pacers because he can create his own shot which is a rarity for the Pacers and he is a ball-hawk defensively.  He is crucial for keeping Wade out of the paint. Bench play drastically favors the Heat in my opinion.

When Hibbert is in the game expect a lot of high pick n roll. Just like they did in the payoffs last year Hibbert is to slow to help and recover and the Heat picked the Pacers apart in the post -season with this play.

Situation: While I do like the physical match-ups for Miami the meat and potatoes behind this play is situational. The Pacers blew out the Heat at home early in the year. Not only did they blow them out but they talked a ton of garbage too. And they talked garbage before the game and all summer. Just google it-it's all over the internet. Do you really think the Heat are going to let the Pacers  punk them like that and then beat them twice in a row? I don't. Look we already know from common sense and from last year's playoff series that the Miami Heat are better. Plus, take away Granger and add Ray Allen. If both teams are equally motivated the Heat win. No matter the venue. The only reason the line is low in my opinion is because the Pacers are 17-3 at home and the Heat are 10-11 at home.Take a look at these quotes too:

"We want to get better on the road." -Wade
"We want to send a message to anyone we might face in the playoffs."-Lebron said this after the Nets game

The Heat are trying to make a push here and if you read between the lines you can tell they WANT  THIS. The fiesty-ness and trash talking of the Pacers and the fact they blew out the Heat early on insures they will have Miami's full attention. In the last game Miami had Zero bench contributions but as of late the bench from Miami has really been playing well. I would expect a bounce back game from them. The motivation, the match-ups, and the Stephenson injury are enough for me to back the Heat here especially at a low ML price of -120.


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manutdfctts9899 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
manutdfctts9899
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#2
Posted: 2/1/2013 6:14:48 PM
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Bidasaint send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Bidasaint
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#3
Posted: 2/1/2013 6:15:07 PM
I don't know if Miami is going to take it tonight...cuz Ind is really good at home. FYI...BOL. But I would say under 1H is the best right now. 
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capdatazz send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#4
Posted: 2/1/2013 6:51:41 PM
This game feels like it goes down to the wire.  Indy has already shown they can beat Mia and I expect very motivated play.  Still learning toward the Pacers myself but may back off.

Glad to hear you had a great Thurs, as I did as well 
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swolesbee send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#5
Posted: 2/1/2013 7:23:15 PM
3* 2 team 5.5 point teaser ties win.
1st leg: Grizzlies -1

2nd leg: open

Rare move on my behalf. I have almost no doubt Memphis wins tonight but I do have some doubts about covering a 7 point spread since their starters played heavy minutes yesterday. I was against them yesterday for situational reasons. Breaking up a championship potential team for financial reasons and going on the road shorthanded to play the best team(record wise)in the league on national TV isn't a recipe for success.

Situation: Memphis is a team with a ton of pride. They are blue collar, physical, and they respond to adversity very well (one of the reasons I backed them in the 2nd half yesterday). I expected an intensity letdown as a result of the trade yesterday and it showed. However, Tayshaun will be on the bench tonight and I think his appearance and possible play tonight will spark the Grizzlies and give them an energy boost. Tayshaun is extremely well respected around the league and HE HAS A RING. In his 1st game in Memphis it would really surprise me for the Grizz to put up a stinker. It would also surprise me since they got blow out on national T.V. I see a big emotional response for the Grizzlies tonight. I think they play with a "let's show the new guy what Grizzly basketball is all about kind of mentality."

Match-ups: It helps that they are playing one of the worst NBA teams in the league at home. Yes the Wizards had a nice run and they are getting slightly healthier but during that stretch they were playing really well offensively. The ball was moving, assists were up, turnovers were down, and the team had some extra adrenaline with John Wall's return.

Couple of things. Bradley Beal is out and it's a big loss. He is their glue guy. He is also their 2nd best shooter. He is an under control, smooth, polished player despite being a rookie who really makes the team fit together.

The last 2 games the ball has stopped moving. Wall is starting now instead of coming off the bench. The chemistry isn't good. With Beal out and Wall starting the starting 5 only has 1 shooter (Webster). They are reverting back to iso plays and standing around. The shot selection has been horrible.They are better when they go in the post but Wall is used to playing a fast pace and pushing the ball so it's a really weird dynamic. Also, teams can help on Nene with virtually no shooters they have to worry about on the outside.

There is really only one way the Wizards can win against Memphis and that is for them to slow the pace down and attack Memphis bigs down low and get them in foul trouble(Their depth is bad now after Hammaddi and Speights are out).They will have to take good shots because the Grizzlies take good shots. They have to play good defense because the Grizzlies are the best or 2nd best defensive team in the league. If you think they can do that then back the Wizards, but I don't think they can. Memphis is 5th in the league in opponent points in the paint. They are number 1 defending isolation plays, number 4 defending post-ups, and number 7 in transition defense. The Wizards have their work cut out for them.

Against Philly their were times win Phill really pressured the ball and ratcheted up the defense.If you watched the game you know exactly what I'm talking about. The Wizards were trapped numerous times, had the ball stolen, and had many shot clock violations. Philly beat them by 8 despite having no interior presence whatsoever. Expect similar or better defense from Memphis combined with better offense and post play and I think we have another Wizards road loss.



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#6
Posted: 2/2/2013 6:44:00 AM
2nd Leg: Utah Jazz +10

also added: 3*2 team 4.5 point teaser ties win
1st leg: Jazz +9
2nd leg: open


1* Parlay

1st leg: Jazz +5 -120
2nd leg: Open

Mathews is in a walking boot. Batum's wrist is bothering him big time. Blazers starters played heavy minutes and should be tired. Their bench is the worst in the league and maybe in NBA history lol. Utah won't get blow out bank on that.

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