Just wanted to create this thread for everyone to post their thoughts on what they think the WNBA finals is going to be like. I know it is 1 week away but always good to get people's opinions on this great season finale.
Just wanted to create this thread for everyone to post their thoughts on what they think the WNBA finals is going to be like. I know it is 1 week away but always good to get people's opinions on this great season finale.
I'm really liking the over as well. Minny average 87 at home and Dream average around 74 on the road but this has been better in their past several games.
Using the www.edbemiss.com website, he has shown that the Dream get the most possesions per game out of any team in the league. They average around 81-82 possession per game and the Lynx get around 79. The league average is around 78.
The only downfall for the Dream is that they don't hit as many shots as the very impressive Lynx do. Per possession, Lynx are getting around 1.153 points. The Dream on the other hand are getting about 0.902 points per possession. I really think that these teams will combine together for a couple 40 points quarters during the first game. Lynx do generally play high scoring games in Minny especially against teams that are also very good offensively.
I'm really liking the over as well. Minny average 87 at home and Dream average around 74 on the road but this has been better in their past several games.
Using the www.edbemiss.com website, he has shown that the Dream get the most possesions per game out of any team in the league. They average around 81-82 possession per game and the Lynx get around 79. The league average is around 78.
The only downfall for the Dream is that they don't hit as many shots as the very impressive Lynx do. Per possession, Lynx are getting around 1.153 points. The Dream on the other hand are getting about 0.902 points per possession. I really think that these teams will combine together for a couple 40 points quarters during the first game. Lynx do generally play high scoring games in Minny especially against teams that are also very good offensively.
Aussie, if I were the Dream coach, then after reading this analysis, I would preach defense and try to turn the game into a grind. But let's hope Atlanta will try to run and gun again. I think the total will open around 158 and the line will be Min -10.
Aussie, if I were the Dream coach, then after reading this analysis, I would preach defense and try to turn the game into a grind. But let's hope Atlanta will try to run and gun again. I think the total will open around 158 and the line will be Min -10.
Yeah im not sure about the line. Wagers posted on my other thread stating that the first time they played, the Dream were only underdogs by +5.5. Might be closer than suggested. I think maybe around +7.5 - 8 based on their recent success on the road.
Yeah im not sure about the line. Wagers posted on my other thread stating that the first time they played, the Dream were only underdogs by +5.5. Might be closer than suggested. I think maybe around +7.5 - 8 based on their recent success on the road.
The first time they played, in early July, PHX was still probably the favorite to win the title and the Dream were rocking everybody at home (long-long time ago). Minny has been absolutely dominant at home in their series. I think the line opens at around +9-10 and might move to teens by the game time. This is why I would take Minny ATS 1H: I do not like betting on lines close to teens since too much might depend on subs at the end of a blowout. Do not forget that West has been always dominating the East in the WNBA, winning 12 out of 16 titles (and three out of four titles for the East were won by Detroit).
The first time they played, in early July, PHX was still probably the favorite to win the title and the Dream were rocking everybody at home (long-long time ago). Minny has been absolutely dominant at home in their series. I think the line opens at around +9-10 and might move to teens by the game time. This is why I would take Minny ATS 1H: I do not like betting on lines close to teens since too much might depend on subs at the end of a blowout. Do not forget that West has been always dominating the East in the WNBA, winning 12 out of 16 titles (and three out of four titles for the East were won by Detroit).
Actually, Minny will probably prefer to set the tone for the series and if it is a blowout they might run the score up, like they did with PHX in GM1. So even if the line will be close +10, I might still take the Minny ATS.
Actually, Minny will probably prefer to set the tone for the series and if it is a blowout they might run the score up, like they did with PHX in GM1. So even if the line will be close +10, I might still take the Minny ATS.
Thanks for the thread Aussie...looking back to their 2 meetings this season:
July 9 Minn was
favored by -5.5 and 158 total at home, they were without Augustus
(ankle) and coming off a big home win over Phx (91-59), Atl was rusty,
hadn't played since June 30 and got walloped 72-94 starting their worst
slide of the year losing 8 of their next 9. McCoughtry was held to 16
and Herrington to 0 pts.
Aug 20 Atl was comfotably at home for a
week, breaking their long losing streak with routs over Conn (88-57)
and Wash (76-58) prior and were +2.5 dogs at 158 again. Minn was in the
midst of their worst losing streak having lost 3 of the last 4 and got
beat by Atl 75-88 and only scored 5pts in the 4th qtr.
I really
like the over if it's set at 158-162 in this series to begin as both
games this season went over even though at least one team was struggling
offensively. Both are at full strength now and I expect a shoot out. If
we get a good ref crew then it's very solid. They've had qtrs of 56,
53, 49 and 46 in 4 of the 8 qtrs they've played so I really think this
series is waiting to blow up, even a 30pt qtr could be followed by a
53pt qtr to rescue an over. I'll wait closer to gametime but I'm thinking 1st half over 80 and just have that as only bet and see what happens. I have made most profits betting unders thus far so that tempers my enthusiasm a bit.
Thanks for the thread Aussie...looking back to their 2 meetings this season:
July 9 Minn was
favored by -5.5 and 158 total at home, they were without Augustus
(ankle) and coming off a big home win over Phx (91-59), Atl was rusty,
hadn't played since June 30 and got walloped 72-94 starting their worst
slide of the year losing 8 of their next 9. McCoughtry was held to 16
and Herrington to 0 pts.
Aug 20 Atl was comfotably at home for a
week, breaking their long losing streak with routs over Conn (88-57)
and Wash (76-58) prior and were +2.5 dogs at 158 again. Minn was in the
midst of their worst losing streak having lost 3 of the last 4 and got
beat by Atl 75-88 and only scored 5pts in the 4th qtr.
I really
like the over if it's set at 158-162 in this series to begin as both
games this season went over even though at least one team was struggling
offensively. Both are at full strength now and I expect a shoot out. If
we get a good ref crew then it's very solid. They've had qtrs of 56,
53, 49 and 46 in 4 of the 8 qtrs they've played so I really think this
series is waiting to blow up, even a 30pt qtr could be followed by a
53pt qtr to rescue an over. I'll wait closer to gametime but I'm thinking 1st half over 80 and just have that as only bet and see what happens. I have made most profits betting unders thus far so that tempers my enthusiasm a bit.
For me, 9.5 is still good. I think it will be a double digit win for Minny. Such a dominate team at home.
They step up for big games as well, just think back last week against Mercury who were pumped and ready to play after winning the series against LA. Minny made them look very bad.
Think about these stats buddy.
Minny has won at home by 10 points or more 14 times from 19 starts.
Dream are only 6-13 on the road this year (but they have won their last 2 on the road)
Minny after a 5 day or more rest this season are 7-1
Atlanta after a 5 day or more rest are 4-4 this season.
I personally can't go past these stats. I know the season is different to the play-offs by Minny just way to strong at home.
For me, 9.5 is still good. I think it will be a double digit win for Minny. Such a dominate team at home.
They step up for big games as well, just think back last week against Mercury who were pumped and ready to play after winning the series against LA. Minny made them look very bad.
Think about these stats buddy.
Minny has won at home by 10 points or more 14 times from 19 starts.
Dream are only 6-13 on the road this year (but they have won their last 2 on the road)
Minny after a 5 day or more rest this season are 7-1
Atlanta after a 5 day or more rest are 4-4 this season.
I personally can't go past these stats. I know the season is different to the play-offs by Minny just way to strong at home.
Been watching Min play for a while now, and I gotta say they kinda remind me of last year's Clippers with their preferred tempo style - they like to put on a clinic in the first half, running up the score as much as possible, then slowing the game down in the 2nd half and playing lockdown D. I can tell you that when I make picks involving Minn, I've had the most luck with this format:
Minn 1H ATS 1H OVER 2H UNDER
those are the plays i'll most likely be leaning on, will go larger if I see the Aussie or the other regular wnba guys leaning the same way.
Been watching Min play for a while now, and I gotta say they kinda remind me of last year's Clippers with their preferred tempo style - they like to put on a clinic in the first half, running up the score as much as possible, then slowing the game down in the 2nd half and playing lockdown D. I can tell you that when I make picks involving Minn, I've had the most luck with this format:
Minn 1H ATS 1H OVER 2H UNDER
those are the plays i'll most likely be leaning on, will go larger if I see the Aussie or the other regular wnba guys leaning the same way.
Agree with you about the Lynx. 1H is generally a high scoring and quick half and then the 2H dies down.
With that being said, do you think the 1H may get around 80 points and then around 70 points for 2H? So maybe the under for the total game (155.5 points)?
Agree with you about the Lynx. 1H is generally a high scoring and quick half and then the 2H dies down.
With that being said, do you think the 1H may get around 80 points and then around 70 points for 2H? So maybe the under for the total game (155.5 points)?
Yes, definitely feel like we can see 80+ in the first half, the 2nd half i think is more dependent on the status of the Lynx... if they are up huge they will slow the plays down to eat the clock to make it that much harder for the Dream to come back. if it is just a difference of a cpl of points at the half, I will probably pass on a play as it could go either way.... i've seen the lynx go off for nearly 30 points in a 3rd quarter, only to follow it up with a 4th where the total doesn't even hit 24. Actually, I think that is exactly what happened in the last elimination game they played a week ago or so.
Yes, definitely feel like we can see 80+ in the first half, the 2nd half i think is more dependent on the status of the Lynx... if they are up huge they will slow the plays down to eat the clock to make it that much harder for the Dream to come back. if it is just a difference of a cpl of points at the half, I will probably pass on a play as it could go either way.... i've seen the lynx go off for nearly 30 points in a 3rd quarter, only to follow it up with a 4th where the total doesn't even hit 24. Actually, I think that is exactly what happened in the last elimination game they played a week ago or so.
It is an insult to the Lynx to compare them with the Clippers. The Clips crunch time offense consists(-ed) in giving the ball to Paul and clearing out for him, hoping that he can somehow score or find an open man. Vinny is not a good coach. Hiring him was like hiring a five-year old to drive a Ferrarri.
That being said, you do have good points Jay. I took over for the whole game, but I should have waited for the 1H out. I might sprinkle on the 1H Min ATS and the over as well.
It is an insult to the Lynx to compare them with the Clippers. The Clips crunch time offense consists(-ed) in giving the ball to Paul and clearing out for him, hoping that he can somehow score or find an open man. Vinny is not a good coach. Hiring him was like hiring a five-year old to drive a Ferrarri.
That being said, you do have good points Jay. I took over for the whole game, but I should have waited for the 1H out. I might sprinkle on the 1H Min ATS and the over as well.
Thanks for the input, was looking to parlay the Lynx with another bet. WNBA has not been kind to me this yr, as it has been so inconsistent with play. I take it your pick is the Lynx game one.
Thanks for the input, was looking to parlay the Lynx with another bet. WNBA has not been kind to me this yr, as it has been so inconsistent with play. I take it your pick is the Lynx game one.
Hey Aussie. Broncos with 4 TDs in the 1st half, including a rushing TD by Manning (all done in about 19 mins) ! The over is pretty much guaranteed. Now, the Broncos need not to lose the 2H for the -7 Broncos to win. Let's hope the Lynx/Dream game will also be a shootout.
Hey Aussie. Broncos with 4 TDs in the 1st half, including a rushing TD by Manning (all done in about 19 mins) ! The over is pretty much guaranteed. Now, the Broncos need not to lose the 2H for the -7 Broncos to win. Let's hope the Lynx/Dream game will also be a shootout.
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