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Author: [Mixed Martial Arts] Topic: Bellator 73 Plays
MR219 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
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#1
Posted: 8/22/2012 6:14:32 PM
YTD Record:
Overall: 107-128-2, -71.65 Units ,,
UFC: 84-94-2, -59.25 Units ,,
Strikeforce: 11-11, +3.30 Units 
Bellator: 12-23, -15.70 Units ,
Final 2011 Record: 148-132-3, +123.55 Units 
Final 2010 Record: 115-119-3, +11.25 Units 
Final 2009 Record: 80-82-1, +23.75 Units 

I am putting my 3 night MMA capping hot streak on the line with this card...

My Bellator capping has been absolutely terrible all year long.  I am hoping that I can finally catch a break on this one.

The only play I have locked in on so far is Luis Nogueira (-172) over Marcos Galvao.  Risking 3.45 units to win 2 units.  I wish Pinny had opened this line earlier in the week when other books had this as low as -135, but it is what it is.  I think this line will continue to rise, so if you like Nog, I would lock in now.

More plays closer to fight time...

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#2
Posted: 8/22/2012 8:42:37 PM
thanks for the pinny heads up. that line jump caught me slipping. i seen that nog opened up at - 125 or something and just thought i would bet it later in the week at around the same rate.  boy was i wrong.

luis nog 
1.78u for 1u

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#3
Posted: 8/22/2012 8:43:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by whipton:

thanks for the pinny heads up. that line jump caught me slipping. i seen that nog opened up at - 125 or something and just thought i would bet it later in the week at around the same rate.  boy was i wrong.

luis nog 
1.78u for 1u


i got it @ -178
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#4
Posted: 8/23/2012 4:38:18 AM
gl
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MR219 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
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#5
Posted: 8/23/2012 6:30:49 PM
UPDATED CARD:

1.  Luis Nogueira (-172) over Marcos Galvao.  Risking 3.45 units to win 2 units.

2.  Travis Wiuff (-180) over Attila Vegh.  Risking 3.6 units to win 2 units.
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#6
Posted: 8/23/2012 6:32:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by whipton:

thanks for the pinny heads up. that line jump caught me slipping. i seen that nog opened up at - 125 or something and just thought i would bet it later in the week at around the same rate.  boy was i wrong.

luis nog 
1.78u for 1u


Yeah, I am a bit surprised by the line movement.  I actually thought Galvao would open as a very slight fav.  The actual opening line and the line movement basically confirmed my Nog lean for me.
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#7
Posted: 8/23/2012 6:32:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by deserted:

gl

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#8
Posted: 8/24/2012 1:13:26 AM
I like the Wiuff play   I'm taking a shot on Galvao though.  GL!
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#9
Posted: 8/24/2012 6:47:29 AM
What unthink about the Martinez fight???Any helpful information on it??? I know weasel has a weak chin ... Any other kind of info...??? Thanx
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#10
Posted: 8/24/2012 2:38:59 PM
interesting line movement on luis nog

i think he opened at -120 shot up to -190 now it's down at -170


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#11
Posted: 8/24/2012 3:50:38 PM
200 on bodog. I put down a hundy at -180
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#12
Posted: 8/24/2012 5:27:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by plike112:

What unthink about the Martinez fight???Any helpful information on it??? I know weasel has a weak chin ... Any other kind of info...??? Thanx

I can tell you that Martinez has a strong wrestling background, so he probably can dump Wessel on his back at will.  Whether that will be his strategy or not, we will have to wait and see.  However, I would not want to be laying -400 on any Bellator heavyweight not named Konrad or Thiago Santos.

I cannot really make any strong argument to take Wessel.  My advice would be to sit this one out...
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#13
Posted: 8/24/2012 5:28:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by whipton:

interesting line movement on luis nog

i think he opened at -120 shot up to -190 now it's down at -170



The line on Nog is all over the place at the moment.  I am seeing it as low as -175 and as high as -210.  I am not really too concerned...
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#14
Posted: 8/24/2012 5:29:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sawman:

200 on bodog. I put down a hundy at -180

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#15
Posted: 8/24/2012 5:43:40 PM
Wiuff line is plumetting?!  What's the deal?
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#16
Posted: 8/24/2012 5:44:12 PM
after i finished capping the fight, i thought that nog would open at around where he's at now, so when i saw that he opened @ -120 i was some what shocked, and now regret not pulling the trigger. 
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#17
Posted: 8/24/2012 6:30:49 PM
> 2.5 rds -170 ... I like nog but I d
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#18
Posted: 8/24/2012 6:32:33 PM
But I doubt he finishes Galvao ... Line has been dropping on this...it might be worth the play though... If it drops to -150ish I'm laying on that
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#19
Posted: 8/24/2012 6:37:27 PM
I also n
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#20
Posted: 8/24/2012 6:40:30 PM
Damn iPhone ..... I noticed that the wiuff > 2.5 is at -120 which I think is a steal. Isn't it ? I haven't capped this fight hence the lack of bets made but last time I checked wiuff ain't no finisher. Is his opponent a finisher ?
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#21
Posted: 8/24/2012 7:10:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kneeunthaface:

Wiuff line is plumetting?!  What's the deal?

I have no idea what is up with this line movement.  IMO, Vegh has zero advantage in any facet of MMA over Wiuff.  In fact, if it were not for a judge screw job in his fight against Newton which I and one of the judges scored 30-27 for Newton, he would not even be in this fight...

...which makes you wonder, is the "fix" in...
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#22
Posted: 8/24/2012 7:11:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by whipton:

But I doubt he finishes Galvao ... Line has been dropping on this...it might be worth the play though... If it drops to -150ish I'm laying on that

I also think it goes the distance...
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#23
Posted: 8/24/2012 7:11:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by whipton:

Damn iPhone ..... I noticed that the wiuff > 2.5 is at -120 which I think is a steal. Isn't it ? I haven't capped this fight hence the lack of bets made but last time I checked wiuff ain't no finisher. Is his opponent a finisher ?

I think this goes the distance as well...
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#24
Posted: 8/24/2012 7:40:42 PM
Mr. what do you think of the Ryan Martinez fight at -140 for under 1.5 and over 1.5 at 110.  I'm thinking of taking the over, but it's total hunch...
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#25
Posted: 8/24/2012 7:47:49 PM
UPDATED CARD:

1.  Luis Nogueira (-172) over Marcos Galvao.  Risking 3.45 units to win 2 units.

2.  Travis Wiuff (-180) over Attila Vegh.  Risking 3.6 units to win 2 units.

3.  Mike Wessel/Ryan Martinez over 1.5 rounds (+115).  Risking 1 unit to win 1.15 units.

4.  Matt Van Buren (-120) over Mike Mucitelli.  Risking 1.2 units to win 1 unit.
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