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Author: [Mixed Martial Arts] Topic: UFC 149
sawman send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 7/19/2012 2:19:42 PM

This is a real hard fight to cap. A bunch of unknowns and a bunch of late replacements. I have considered throwing out small bets on almost all dogs, because there could be a lot of "upsets". I have been on a great roll lately, more than doubling my bank roll in the past 4 fights. If I am smart, I will tread lightly.

a few thoughts:

Faber/Barao - will Barao win? Probably. Can Faber win? Definitely

Lombard/Boetch - Lombard is the easy choice. Boetch was dominated last fight, but snuck out a win (I got a lucky win too). But what Boetch really showed was his desire to win and get dirty to do it. If he stands and trades it could be a short fight. But If he fights smart, and drags the fight deep, I think he can finish Boetch

Ebersole/Head - Ebersole has been awesome and I can't see him losing to Head. There are so few fights on this card that I feel confident in, I can't even find a good parlay partner. I have had horrible luck with single bets at -300 and worse, but I am considering it here

Jordan/Kongo - I like Kongo here. His stand up should be better IMO. I missed the +105, but I may wait to see if it hits a + # again

Delorme/Rivera - I like Delorme as a dog. He weathered the storm last fight and got a great finsh

Riddle/clements - i love riddle but he has yet to live up to his promise. he says he has changed his mindset, but in the past he has seemed happy to loose a barnburner, rather than trying to win. he is a big guy, and has struggled with past cuts. That might be an issue again. Clements at a + # is not a bad call

Ring/McGee - Court has accomplished a lot for not having a ton of skill IMO. I have been very impressed with Ring in the past. I think he has more skill and is more well rounded

Jimmo/Persoh - Jimmo is from my local circuit, but have never seen him fight live. I understand he is a counter puncher, but not a hard puncher. I think Perosh is slick enough to get the finish and W

Pineda/Carvalho - Lots on Pineda here, but I don't understand why he's -250. Carvahlo at +200 is a good play IMO

nothing to add on last 2 fights

2 bets in the books:

Faber +160  $50 wins $80

Ring -120  $50 wins $42

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#2
Posted: 7/19/2012 5:25:12 PM
Lombard/Boetch - Lombard is the easy choice. Boetch was dominated last fight, but snuck out a win (I got a lucky win too). But what Boetch really showed was his desire to win and get dirty to do it. If he stands and trades it could be a short fight. But If he fights smart, and drags the fight deep, I think he can finish Boetch

i think boetch has a much better tank and more toughness.....also call it nerves or whatever but dont forget most guys making their ufc debuts from other organizations (not wec) arent all that spectacular....lombard could hurt boetch early and finish him but if it goes into the deeper waters i like his heart and i definately think the odds are a bit higher than they should be for this particular fight
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#3
Posted: 7/19/2012 5:37:11 PM
To clarify my last boetch/ Lombard sentence: I think boetch can finish Lombard if he takes the fight deep
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#4
Posted: 7/19/2012 5:38:15 PM
gotcha
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#5
Posted: 7/20/2012 1:57:39 AM
If you can't find someone to parlay Ebersole with, maybe Daley tomorrow night in Bellator?  Rudy Bears is awful, it's definitely a match to feed Daley a win.  Parlay pays like -210, not too bad.. 

Good luck on your card !
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#6
Posted: 7/20/2012 9:37:16 AM
The odds on Daley are horrible. And he didn't l
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#7
Posted: 7/20/2012 9:37:53 AM
...and he didn't look great last outing. But perhaps baker
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#8
Posted: 7/20/2012 6:30:26 PM

daley/baker/wiuff/ebersole  $40 wins $86

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#9
Posted: 7/20/2012 6:46:51 PM
Tim Silvia signs with Strikeforce to fight Cormier. Opening odds might top Jones/Hendo
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#10
Posted: 7/20/2012 7:39:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sawman:

Tim Silvia signs with Strikeforce to fight Cormier. Opening odds might top Jones/Hendo

-400 or so for Cormier is my guess
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#11
Posted: 7/20/2012 7:48:54 PM
-600 at least
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#12
Posted: 7/20/2012 7:48:55 PM
-600 at least
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#13
Posted: 7/20/2012 9:11:25 PM
Could be -800
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#14
Posted: 7/21/2012 12:35:43 PM
So I guess Silvia vs Cormier is a no go. Weird

Two more plays
Kongo -105 $50 wins $48
Ebersole/riddle $100 wins $106... I might add more to this later. I like it
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#15
Posted: 7/21/2012 1:15:13 PM

No plays for me tonight.  
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#16
Posted: 7/21/2012 1:20:06 PM
Have fun watching the fights sharp. I'm not too confident in anything tonight but well roll the dice on a few scraps
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#17
Posted: 7/21/2012 4:16:41 PM
GL tonight sawman
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#18
Posted: 7/21/2012 5:38:11 PM
Small parlay
Faber/ebersole/Lombard. $20 wins $60
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#19
Posted: 7/21/2012 7:35:07 PM

ebersole/lombard/riddle/DBacks  $50 wins $145

I buckled under the Lombard pressure. I think i was the only one who gave him a chance

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#20
Posted: 7/21/2012 7:48:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CTownLetdown:

-600 at least

Yeah you're probably right!
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#21
Posted: 7/21/2012 8:04:49 PM
Just glanced through the posts, but if I can get a line vs Sylvia..........I'll bet it.  

Good luck tonight man!!!!!
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#22
Posted: 7/21/2012 8:08:40 PM
where the hell is all of leebone's plays??
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#23
Posted: 7/21/2012 9:15:10 PM
So I guess my ring at -120 was not a good move... Should b a close fight tho

Riddle -160. $100 wins $63 (I think)
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#24
Posted: 7/21/2012 9:33:27 PM
I think it's gonna be a close one too, surprised the line has moved so much.  Ring was up to like -165 for that first day or two, now Mcgee -140..

GL on the rest, I hope Riddle doesn't fight like an idiot
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#25
Posted: 7/21/2012 9:35:06 PM
Me too. I think he can lay and pray a W if he wants
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