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Author: [Mixed Martial Arts] Topic: UFC 142 Plays
MR219 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
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#26
Posted: 1/14/2012 12:01:22 AM
I am sticking to what I said in Post #17.  I am letting my bet ride, but am recommending to anyone who has not locked in to take a pass...
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#27
Posted: 1/14/2012 12:37:46 AM
without a doubt you'll get a good price on mendes tomorrow
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#28
Posted: 1/14/2012 3:12:34 AM
I don't think there's any undisclosed injury.  Rumble has been sounding very confident in the way he talks, like he knows he has this fight.  Even in his interview just yesterday. 

I really thought about hedging out a good piece of my bet as well.. but bottom line is despite all of this, Rumble is still a bad matchup for Vitor, he looked shredded at the weigh-in, Vitor doesn't look as good as usual, and Rumble seemed very upbeat and confident.  If Dana and Rogan had given him the cold shoulder and he appeared withdrawn and ill, this would be alot different.

So yeah I'm letting the whole thing ride as well, hopefully Rumble somewhat knows what he's doing and comes in the best shape possible tomorrow night, GL
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#29
Posted: 1/14/2012 11:00:38 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by deserted:

without a doubt you'll get a good price on mendes tomorrow

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#30
Posted: 1/14/2012 11:02:16 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by ctm1985:

I don't think there's any undisclosed injury.  Rumble has been sounding very confident in the way he talks, like he knows he has this fight.  Even in his interview just yesterday. 

I really thought about hedging out a good piece of my bet as well.. but bottom line is despite all of this, Rumble is still a bad matchup for Vitor, he looked shredded at the weigh-in, Vitor doesn't look as good as usual, and Rumble seemed very upbeat and confident.  If Dana and Rogan had given him the cold shoulder and he appeared withdrawn and ill, this would be alot different.

So yeah I'm letting the whole thing ride as well, hopefully Rumble somewhat knows what he's doing and comes in the best shape possible tomorrow night, GL

He weighed in at 204.2 pounds, so the fight is on, and he still has time to pack on more...

As long as it was a hydration issue, and not another knee injury, then yes, I would starting to gain a bit more confidence in this play again...

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#31
Posted: 1/14/2012 11:07:14 AM

FINAL CARD:

1.  Rumble Johnson (-107) over Vitor Belfort.  Risking 10.7 units to win 10 units.  Please see my comments under post #17, as they still stand.

2.  Chad Mendes (+225) over Jose Aldo.  Risking 10 units to win 22.5 units.

3.  Ednaldo Oliveira (+110) over Gabriel Gonzaga.  Risking 3 units to win 3.3 units.

4.  Thiago Tavares - Sam Stout over 2.5 rounds (-137.5).  Risking 2.75 units to win 2 units.

5.  Yuri Alcantara - Michihiro Omigawa over 2.5 rounds (-137.5).  Risking 2.75 units to win 2 units.

6.  Parlay of Antonio Carvalho over Felipe Arantes, Mike Pyle over Ricardo Funch and Erick Silva or Carlo Prater.  Risking 3 units to win 3.05 units.

7.  Parlay of Thiago Tavares over Sam Stout, Rousimar Palhares over Mike Massenzio and Edson Barboza over Terry Etim.  Risking 2 units to win 3.3 units.

8.  Michihiro Omigawa (+170) over Yuri Alcantara.  Risking 1 unit to win 1.7 units.

BOL to everyone with your plays!!!

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#32
Posted: 1/14/2012 11:08:42 AM
Play #6 should say Erick Silva over Carlo Prater.
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#33
Posted: 1/14/2012 11:10:25 AM

He's a beast when healthy but something went drastically wrong over the past few weeks for him to have missed by so much.  Best of luck to you tonight in your overall card.

Interesting read by a Doc who examines what happened here : link

Amazingly this is potentially what AJ is up against..

Due to the dehydration:

  • his kidneys will be in a state of compromised function
  • his blood volume will be decreased, and therefore, his heart will be forced to work extra to supply his body's demands
  • most of his brain will have decreased protection since water makes up approximately 97 percent of the vital CSF (spinal fluid) that protects and cushions the brain from trauma
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#34
Posted: 1/14/2012 11:11:08 AM
nice card.... like that you are putting 10 units on Mendes!  Balls!!
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#35
Posted: 1/14/2012 11:34:46 AM
looks like we're on opposites sides of the fence tonight
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#36
Posted: 1/14/2012 11:43:28 AM

Good Luck, bro

We have a few the same, but I'm on stout and aldo.

any predictions on how Mendes wins?

I'm thinking about a Palhares ITD bet - think he finishes Massenzio?

I'm really interested in seeing how the Belfort/Jounson circus plays out

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#37
Posted: 1/14/2012 12:22:43 PM

gl on your card! Hope AJ can atleast put on a good show, I personally think he can still win and might be worth a small wager, if he knows he's sick and paces his himself for a boring wrasslin /controll match he should be able to roll on old man vitor for a while,

GL everyone!

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#38
Posted: 1/14/2012 12:42:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ctm1985:

I don't think there's any undisclosed injury.  Rumble has been sounding very confident in the way he talks, like he knows he has this fight.  Even in his interview just yesterday. 

I really thought about hedging out a good piece of my bet as well.. but bottom line is despite all of this, Rumble is still a bad matchup for Vitor, he looked shredded at the weigh-in, Vitor doesn't look as good as usual, and Rumble seemed very upbeat and confident.  If Dana and Rogan had given him the cold shoulder and he appeared withdrawn and ill, this would be alot different.

So yeah I'm letting the whole thing ride as well, hopefully Rumble somewhat knows what he's doing and comes in the best shape possible tomorrow night, GL


I have nothing on that one, as it has so many variables...now added variables.  So good luck to you guys with your play here.

But I think Rumble has the Kongo syndrome.  His physique isn't going to win him the fight.  This fight means a whole lot to Vitor. He will be as ready as ever I would imagine.

GL on the card.  Should be a pretty entertaining night of fights.
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#39
Posted: 1/14/2012 12:57:30 PM
way too many variables in that aj-vitor scrap
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#40
Posted: 1/14/2012 1:28:43 PM
The new element in this fight is AJ job on the line even if he wins. Completely takes a 3 round lay and pray out of the equation. He has to finish Vitor to keep his job. With that element gone, he's going to be a standing duck.
Posted using a mobile device.
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#41
Posted: 1/14/2012 2:52:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sharpstick:

The new element in this fight is AJ job on the line even if he wins. Completely takes a 3 round lay and pray out of the equation. He has to finish Vitor to keep his job. With that element gone, he's going to be a standing duck.


I'm sure he could keep his job if he had a decision victory like Ben Henderson had over Jim Miller. As long as he's going ham in the guard, can't imagine they'd cut him with a
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#42
Posted: 1/14/2012 3:05:40 PM
Yeah, Rumble may just think he has to do whatever he possibly can to get the win. 

I know Dana was saying that his job is on the line, win or lose, but eh.. who knows.  The prop odds did move alot though, Rumble by decision is now +753..
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#43
Posted: 1/14/2012 3:22:55 PM
You guys should check this video out, Dana White's video blog from yesterday:

http://youtu.be/2mcjR3TsK4s
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#44
Posted: 1/14/2012 3:38:43 PM
Ctm,

I couldn't layoff that +750. Weight issues won't scare me from that large a number.
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#45
Posted: 1/14/2012 5:14:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 416bet:

He's a beast when healthy but something went drastically wrong over the past few weeks for him to have missed by so much.  Best of luck to you tonight in your overall card.

Interesting read by a Doc who examines what happened here : link

Amazingly this is potentially what AJ is up against..

Due to the dehydration:

  • his kidneys will be in a state of compromised function
  • his blood volume will be decreased, and therefore, his heart will be forced to work extra to supply his body's demands
  • most of his brain will have decreased protection since water makes up approximately 97 percent of the vital CSF (spinal fluid) that protects and cushions the brain from trauma

You know what, this happens all the time with AJ's weight cut.  I do not think this will be any more of a factor for him than it normally would...
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#46
Posted: 1/14/2012 5:16:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 416bet:

nice card.... like that you are putting 10 units on Mendes!  Balls!!

I have been waiting for this one for months!!!  I really think Mendes will be able to take Aldo down and hold him down.  Mendes' wrestling is by far the best in the division.  I am not sold on Aldo's takedown defense.
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#47
Posted: 1/14/2012 5:17:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by whipton:

looks like we're on opposites sides of the fence tonight

BOL Nonetheless!!! 
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#48
Posted: 1/14/2012 5:19:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sawman:

Good Luck, bro

We have a few the same, but I'm on stout and aldo.

any predictions on how Mendes wins?

I'm thinking about a Palhares ITD bet - think he finishes Massenzio?

I'm really interested in seeing how the Belfort/Jounson circus plays out


Mendes by decision.  The longer the fight goes, the better it will be for Mendes IMO.

I think Palhares wins.  Massenzio's takedown defense is pretty good so it might be hard for Palhares to get the submission, unless it is from the result of some type of scramble...
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#49
Posted: 1/14/2012 5:43:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sharpstick:

The new element in this fight is AJ job on the line even if he wins. Completely takes a 3 round lay and pray out of the equation. He has to finish Vitor to keep his job. With that element gone, he's going to be a standing duck.

I am not sure that he has to finish Vitor to keep his job.  I think he will take the fight to the ground if he feels the need to do so.  3 rounds of serious GnP can be interesting to watch...

Rumble does have a 4 inch reach advantage and serious power, so it is not like he is a sitting duck like you think he is if this stays standing.
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#50
Posted: 1/14/2012 5:43:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gsprush:

Ctm,

I couldn't layoff that +750. Weight issues won't scare me from that large a number.

That is a very nice line...
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