I couldn't decide which Parlay would work better, so I decided to play both. Either one pays around 10:1
Parlay#1
Atlanta -4.5
Houston +15
Green Bay +4.5
Kansas City ML
Parlay#2
Atlanta -4.5
New England -15
Dallas -4.5
Pitt ML
Torn between 3 of the 4 games. I really like ATL covering tomorrow. My thoughts is I'll win one or the other. Yes, if ATL loses I'll lose both...I just think if ATL covers, the likelihood of one of these parlays hit...Thoughts?
I couldn't decide which Parlay would work better, so I decided to play both. Either one pays around 10:1
Parlay#1
Atlanta -4.5
Houston +15
Green Bay +4.5
Kansas City ML
Parlay#2
Atlanta -4.5
New England -15
Dallas -4.5
Pitt ML
Torn between 3 of the 4 games. I really like ATL covering tomorrow. My thoughts is I'll win one or the other. Yes, if ATL loses I'll lose both...I just think if ATL covers, the likelihood of one of these parlays hit...Thoughts?
I couldn't decide which Parlay would work better, so I decided to play both. Either one pays around 10:1
Parlay#1
Atlanta -4.5
Houston +15
Green Bay +4.5
Kansas City ML
Parlay#2
Atlanta -4.5
New England -15
Dallas -4.5
Pitt ML
Torn between 3 of the 4 games. I really like ATL covering tomorrow. My thoughts is I'll win one or the other. Yes, if ATL loses I'll lose both...I just think if ATL covers, the likelihood of one of these parlays hit...Thoughts?
Thoughts? Well your chance of hitting is 12.5%. (Based on each game being virtually a coin flip).
So in other words you'd need 7-1 on your money in order to have a break even proposition. Assuming you're getting 10-1 and betting equal amounts on each, your only getting 4.5-1 on your money.
Take it for what you will but my opinion is that parlays are horrible value.
I couldn't decide which Parlay would work better, so I decided to play both. Either one pays around 10:1
Parlay#1
Atlanta -4.5
Houston +15
Green Bay +4.5
Kansas City ML
Parlay#2
Atlanta -4.5
New England -15
Dallas -4.5
Pitt ML
Torn between 3 of the 4 games. I really like ATL covering tomorrow. My thoughts is I'll win one or the other. Yes, if ATL loses I'll lose both...I just think if ATL covers, the likelihood of one of these parlays hit...Thoughts?
Thoughts? Well your chance of hitting is 12.5%. (Based on each game being virtually a coin flip).
So in other words you'd need 7-1 on your money in order to have a break even proposition. Assuming you're getting 10-1 and betting equal amounts on each, your only getting 4.5-1 on your money.
Take it for what you will but my opinion is that parlays are horrible value.
Thoughts? Well your chance of hitting is 12.5%. (Based on each game being virtually a coin flip).
So in other words you'd need 7-1 on your money in order to have a break even proposition. Assuming you're getting 10-1 and betting equal amounts on each, your only getting 4.5-1 on your money.
Take it for what you will but my opinion is that parlays are horrible value.
Hes not getting 4.5 -1 on his money of one hits....hes getting 9-1 .....
Thoughts? Well your chance of hitting is 12.5%. (Based on each game being virtually a coin flip).
So in other words you'd need 7-1 on your money in order to have a break even proposition. Assuming you're getting 10-1 and betting equal amounts on each, your only getting 4.5-1 on your money.
Take it for what you will but my opinion is that parlays are horrible value.
Hes not getting 4.5 -1 on his money of one hits....hes getting 9-1 .....
Hes not getting 4.5 -1 on his money of one hits....hes getting 9-1 .....
Bet #1 $100 to win $1,000
Bet #2 $100 to win $1,000
Obviously one has to lose. So if one hits.....
$1,000 - $100 for the lost bet = + $900 or 9-1
Trust me, I understand what you're saying but I'm viewing his bets as a vehicle to express his opinion on Atlanta... That being said, I'm inclined to look at the 2 bets together (especially considering he can't win both). His risk is 200 and his max upside is +900.
A great example of this would playing a pick 4 at the racetrack. Your investment is the total of all your permutations not just the combo that enabled you to cash the ticket. If I played 150 combos for $5 each, my investment is $750... Only one $5 bet can be a winner though.
Hes not getting 4.5 -1 on his money of one hits....hes getting 9-1 .....
Bet #1 $100 to win $1,000
Bet #2 $100 to win $1,000
Obviously one has to lose. So if one hits.....
$1,000 - $100 for the lost bet = + $900 or 9-1
Trust me, I understand what you're saying but I'm viewing his bets as a vehicle to express his opinion on Atlanta... That being said, I'm inclined to look at the 2 bets together (especially considering he can't win both). His risk is 200 and his max upside is +900.
A great example of this would playing a pick 4 at the racetrack. Your investment is the total of all your permutations not just the combo that enabled you to cash the ticket. If I played 150 combos for $5 each, my investment is $750... Only one $5 bet can be a winner though.
Here's my Train of thought...say ATL does cover, Iam now in the position to have a parlay still alive for Sunday...my assumption heavily relies on 1 home team and 1 road team covering on Sunday...yes there is a chance both road and home team covering,which will therefore crush both of my 4 Teamer... I personally can't forssee both home or road teams covering Sunday.
Here's my Train of thought...say ATL does cover, Iam now in the position to have a parlay still alive for Sunday...my assumption heavily relies on 1 home team and 1 road team covering on Sunday...yes there is a chance both road and home team covering,which will therefore crush both of my 4 Teamer... I personally can't forssee both home or road teams covering Sunday.
Here's my Train of thought...say ATL does cover, Iam now in the position to have a parlay still alive for Sunday...my assumption heavily relies on 1 home team and 1 road team covering on Sunday...yes there is a chance both road and home team covering,which will therefore crush both of my 4 Teamer... I personally can't forssee both home or road teams covering Sunday.
150 combos is not really anything outrageous. Regardless it was an example to make sense of what these bets represent.
Let me ask you this... If you bet 100 on each of these parlays at 10-1 odds, what is the most you can lose? What is the most you can win?
Here's my Train of thought...say ATL does cover, Iam now in the position to have a parlay still alive for Sunday...my assumption heavily relies on 1 home team and 1 road team covering on Sunday...yes there is a chance both road and home team covering,which will therefore crush both of my 4 Teamer... I personally can't forssee both home or road teams covering Sunday.
150 combos is not really anything outrageous. Regardless it was an example to make sense of what these bets represent.
Let me ask you this... If you bet 100 on each of these parlays at 10-1 odds, what is the most you can lose? What is the most you can win?
Thoughts? Well your chance of hitting is 12.5%. (Based on each game being virtually a coin flip).
Check your math again.
If we assume the spread is an equalizer, which for this purpose we CAN assume, the chances of winning either four-team parlay is the product of the chances of winning each individual game.
(1/2)^4 = 1/16 (1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2)
1/16 = 6.25% so no, it's not 12.5%
1/16 is the same as 15 to 1 against. So you need 15 to 1 on your money, just to break even.
So yes, you are correct that it's a bad bet if it only pays 10 to 1. This "juice" is absolutely terrible. This, of course, is why parlays are usually very bad bets.
Thoughts? Well your chance of hitting is 12.5%. (Based on each game being virtually a coin flip).
Check your math again.
If we assume the spread is an equalizer, which for this purpose we CAN assume, the chances of winning either four-team parlay is the product of the chances of winning each individual game.
(1/2)^4 = 1/16 (1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2)
1/16 = 6.25% so no, it's not 12.5%
1/16 is the same as 15 to 1 against. So you need 15 to 1 on your money, just to break even.
So yes, you are correct that it's a bad bet if it only pays 10 to 1. This "juice" is absolutely terrible. This, of course, is why parlays are usually very bad bets.
If we assume the spread is an equalizer, which for this purpose we CAN assume, the chances of winning either four-team parlay is the product of the chances of winning each individual game.
(1/2)^4 = 1/16 (1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2)
1/16 = 6.25% so no, it's not 12.5%
1/16 is the same as 15 to 1 against. So you need 15 to 1 on your money, just to break even.
So yes, you are correct that it's a bad bet if it only pays 10 to 1. This "juice" is absolutely terrible. This, of course, is why parlays are usually very bad bets.
If we assume the spread is an equalizer, which for this purpose we CAN assume, the chances of winning either four-team parlay is the product of the chances of winning each individual game.
(1/2)^4 = 1/16 (1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2)
1/16 = 6.25% so no, it's not 12.5%
1/16 is the same as 15 to 1 against. So you need 15 to 1 on your money, just to break even.
So yes, you are correct that it's a bad bet if it only pays 10 to 1. This "juice" is absolutely terrible. This, of course, is why parlays are usually very bad bets.
I agree it's a terrible bet. But hey it's gambling!!! Haha. My .02 would be to take a bball game or two and plug them in with the favorite two Saturday plays. But for fun I will give you my favorite NFL plays... Seattle +4.5 (too much playoff experience) Green Bay tt over 24 (Dallas secondary is suspect) Pats 1q -4.5 or less (start fast) Chiefs 1h over 24 or less. (Chiefs 1h offense) My book doesn't have my numbers out yet for some of these so I'm guessing on lines. Good luck
I agree it's a terrible bet. But hey it's gambling!!! Haha. My .02 would be to take a bball game or two and plug them in with the favorite two Saturday plays. But for fun I will give you my favorite NFL plays... Seattle +4.5 (too much playoff experience) Green Bay tt over 24 (Dallas secondary is suspect) Pats 1q -4.5 or less (start fast) Chiefs 1h over 24 or less. (Chiefs 1h offense) My book doesn't have my numbers out yet for some of these so I'm guessing on lines. Good luck
I love parlays and even I think this is the dumbest combination of bets ever. I think you should take 200 and bet it on Atlanta. Or option 2, figure out who you like most in the other three games and play one parlay.
I love parlays and even I think this is the dumbest combination of bets ever. I think you should take 200 and bet it on Atlanta. Or option 2, figure out who you like most in the other three games and play one parlay.
And since Atlanta is your confident pick, and it's the first game, if you bet them straight and win you can play some kind of parlay on the other three games with house loot.
And since Atlanta is your confident pick, and it's the first game, if you bet them straight and win you can play some kind of parlay on the other three games with house loot.
If we assume the spread is an equalizer, which for this purpose we CAN assume, the chances of winning either four-team parlay is the product of the chances of winning each individual game.
(1/2)^4 = 1/16 (1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2)
1/16 = 6.25% so no, it's not 12.5%
1/16 is the same as 15 to 1 against. So you need 15 to 1 on your money, just to break even.
So yes, you are correct that it's a bad bet if it only pays 10 to 1. This "juice" is absolutely terrible. This, of course, is why parlays are usually very bad bets.
386
I think we agree but we're just looking at it differently. The pick 4 example is the best way I can describe it...
Of the 4 games this weekend, there are 16 possible combinations of winning teams... Between his 2 bets, he has 2 of them covered. That's why I'm arguing he has a 1 in 8 (12.5%) chance of winning therefore 7-1 on his money would be break even.
If he bets 100 on each and they each pay 10-1, there are only 2 potential outcomes....
A) lose both (net loss -200)
B) win one, lose one (net win +900)
We're both doing the math correctly but the problem is he can't win both. Both parlays are debilitating to your bankroll but playing it both ways multiplies his disadvantage.
If we assume the spread is an equalizer, which for this purpose we CAN assume, the chances of winning either four-team parlay is the product of the chances of winning each individual game.
(1/2)^4 = 1/16 (1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2)
1/16 = 6.25% so no, it's not 12.5%
1/16 is the same as 15 to 1 against. So you need 15 to 1 on your money, just to break even.
So yes, you are correct that it's a bad bet if it only pays 10 to 1. This "juice" is absolutely terrible. This, of course, is why parlays are usually very bad bets.
386
I think we agree but we're just looking at it differently. The pick 4 example is the best way I can describe it...
Of the 4 games this weekend, there are 16 possible combinations of winning teams... Between his 2 bets, he has 2 of them covered. That's why I'm arguing he has a 1 in 8 (12.5%) chance of winning therefore 7-1 on his money would be break even.
If he bets 100 on each and they each pay 10-1, there are only 2 potential outcomes....
A) lose both (net loss -200)
B) win one, lose one (net win +900)
We're both doing the math correctly but the problem is he can't win both. Both parlays are debilitating to your bankroll but playing it both ways multiplies his disadvantage.
Good forum on parleys. Personally i never bet against myself since i don't like just giving money away. But if you think giving money away for one winner is good that is your call.
Good forum on parleys. Personally i never bet against myself since i don't like just giving money away. But if you think giving money away for one winner is good that is your call.
My thoughts are, you're going to lose both parlays by 1 game
First parlay, you will lose with KC
2nd parlay, you will lose with Dallas.
Otherwise, your picks look good!
I just don't think both home teams will win or cover on Sunday. If you put in a 2- 2 Teamer w/ 1 rd, 1 home the likelihood of winning something is likely.
My thoughts are, you're going to lose both parlays by 1 game
First parlay, you will lose with KC
2nd parlay, you will lose with Dallas.
Otherwise, your picks look good!
I just don't think both home teams will win or cover on Sunday. If you put in a 2- 2 Teamer w/ 1 rd, 1 home the likelihood of winning something is likely.
Good forum on parleys. Personally i never bet against myself since i don't like just giving money away. But if you think giving money away for one winner is good that is your call.
I don't see it as giving money away. I see it more as reducing risk and expanding your investment options.
Good forum on parleys. Personally i never bet against myself since i don't like just giving money away. But if you think giving money away for one winner is good that is your call.
I don't see it as giving money away. I see it more as reducing risk and expanding your investment options.
If we assume the spread is an equalizer, which for this purpose we CAN assume, the chances of winning either four-team parlay is the product of the chances of winning each individual game.
(1/2)^4 = 1/16 (1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2)
1/16 = 6.25% so no, it's not 12.5%
1/16 is the same as 15 to 1 against. So you need 15 to 1 on your money, just to break even.
So yes, you are correct that it's a bad bet if it only pays 10 to 1. This "juice" is absolutely terrible. This, of course, is why parlays are usually very bad bets.
If we assume the spread is an equalizer, which for this purpose we CAN assume, the chances of winning either four-team parlay is the product of the chances of winning each individual game.
(1/2)^4 = 1/16 (1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2)
1/16 = 6.25% so no, it's not 12.5%
1/16 is the same as 15 to 1 against. So you need 15 to 1 on your money, just to break even.
So yes, you are correct that it's a bad bet if it only pays 10 to 1. This "juice" is absolutely terrible. This, of course, is why parlays are usually very bad bets.
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