I disagree on every one. The Panthers disguise their coverages, excel at pass rush and have made much better QBs than Sanchez or (gasp) Simien look very bad. Romo looked bad (although he was a shell of himself in that game), Cousins looked bad, Russell Wilson looked bad, Carson Palmer looked bad.
You get to bet on Revenge, the better team, the better QB, the better coach, and the team that WASNT picked apart by Free Agent departures (the Panthers lose Norman who was a very big beneficiary of that dominant pass rush), AND you get them at a price of less than a FG.
Just a slam dunk.
2. The Steelers did not have Senquez Golson last year. They did not have Artie Burns. They DID, however, have one of the most effective pass rushes in the game, ranking 3rd overall in sacks.
Here's the strange thing: These guys are ball hawks. Burns is a pick machine and Senquez sticks to his man LIKE GLUE. On top of that, they have a smart and incredibly physically gifted LB in Ryan Shazier to take away Jordan Reed.
Oh, and the best Offense by leaps and bounds in the NFL.
3. The Jets game is a coin toss, so I disagree that it is strong. Any time that the Jets with their current QB situation are facing the perennial 10-12 win Bengals, it is not a strong play unless they are getting at least a FG imo.
Home dogs I would consider:
1. 49ers. You never know, Chip might keep his playbook a little under wraps this Preseason (last year he was killing teams but showing his hand). If this is the case, I am not sure if the Rams are going to be able to go toe to toe with the Niners if the Niners can exploit some of the holes in the Rams' secondary before the Rams' ridiculous Pass Rush gets home.
(Personally, I am not on the Niners, I have a bowl of chilli on the Rams but it's worth noting that Week One against a divisional rival in an eccentric coach's first game is a pretty volatile spot).
2. Jacksonville +4 v. Green Bay.
Again, I'm not feeling the home dog cover here, but if I were to rank them in likelihood of happening, the Jags really look like they did some crazy stuff in the offseason.
They are getting: Malik Jackson, Prince Amukamara, Jalen Ramsey, Miles Jack. They are also getting the first year from rookie pass rusher Dante Fowler Jr.
If you asked me defensively what the Jags' biggest strength was last year I would say their LB Telvin Smith (6th Round steal from Florida State) was the best pass LB in pass coverage in the NFL. He has quickness like a DB.
If you asked me who the best pure pass coverage linebacker was in this draft I would say hands down Miles Jack. Jack would have been taken top 10 if teams weren't scared of his knee, which will need micro fracture in 2-3 years.
Ramsey is not the stickiest or quickest or best ballhawking Corner, so what is he? The smartest, most long and athletic. He is built to play zone and built to diagnose your play's strength and negate it. He is incredible in space against the run, and will limit YAC for wide receivers.
I'm not saying the Jags are going to beat the Pack, and I wouldn't bet that it will happen, but I see it as far more likely than the Steelers getting beat by the Redskins (a team that under Kirk Cousins has NEVER beat a team that finished the season over .500 and only won 9 games in a division where Dallas had their arm and leg cut off and the Eagles ran for 3 YPC) or the Broncos, fresh off of their team being GUTTED beating a team with the best overall player, one of the most exotic defenses, and one of the best head coaches in a revenge game for the Super Bowl on Opening Night on National Television.
Just my two.