Quote Originally Posted by PhillyBrown:
No way the Chargers win that division. Even though they were bit hard by the injury bug the D was beyond awful and will take more than a year to fix. The Raiders ran through them like nothing and the other 2 teams are both good running teams. I can see how you can say hey, none of the teams in the division are that good but SD is a lot more likely to be last than first. Raiders are not a year away they are right there. The relocation is also going to be an issue for SD.
My bet for that div would be KC.
Why exactly KC? I believe the Chiefs will have a hard time winning more than 8 games this year. Their 11-0 run was amazing, but it was aided by an easy schedule and some turnover "luck". I don't hink Derek Carr will have another 3-Int-quarter this year.
The Chiefs lost their shutdown corner which leaves them with Marcus Peters and Phillip Gaines. Peters was DROY but it was rather because of his 8 INT. 8 INT are hard to reproduce and Peters was covering the WR2 a lot last season with Sean Smith locking down the other side. Different scenario now. Justin Houston just had an ACL surgery, he could miss the first half of the season. Tamba Hali doesn't get younger. This is going to be a worse defense than it was last season against the best OL in the league (OAK) and an SD offense that can't have the league-highest injuriy amount this time.
Also Doug Pederson is gone, who did a phenomenal job to play around the poor OL last season by getting 4.5 YPC out of Ware & West. Do you really want Andy Reid and his vanilla offense to be responsible alone? Will they force Alex Smith to throw more deep balls with Mitchell Schwartz protecting his right side now? Will Brad Childress get a major part?
All in all, I see a team that will come down to earth and fight for a wild card at best.
I completely agree with the OP on the Chargers. They are my biggest sleeper pick this year.
When 9 out of 11 players of your starting offense (assuming a 3WR 1TE
1RB set) average only 52.1% of the offensive snaps, how do you want to
win more than 4 games? We could argue the need of 35-year-old Gates, but
other than that, the Chargers offense didn't have a shot.
An
offensive line needs chemistry, period. At one point I stopped counting
the amount of different formations the Chargers used in front of Philip
Rivers. First-round pick Melvin Gordon averaged 3.5 YPC, but
this is everything but his fault. This OL struggled to block, Gordon
had no chance to succeed. And when you play six divisional games against
top pass-rushing teams, you really don't have a shot. SD went 0-6
within the division.
Another point was the stubborn play-calling
by OC Frank Reich who was fired in January. I remember the game vs.
Oakland. The Raiders jumped to a big lead in the first half after
benefiting off Chargers mistakes. Down 3-23 with enough time left in the
first half, they ran it on all three downs. I mean, how ridiculous is
that? They couldn't run the ball and still tried to do it. In the second
half they finally tried to air it out and managed to score 29 points at
the end.
All in all, the Chargers offense finished with 6.5 NYPPA
(#14), 24.9% pass DVOA (#8) and had the 22nd-best scoring offense at
19.8 PPG. If you look at these numbers and the tape, you will notice
that this offense has so much potential. I've got tremendous respect for
Philip Rivers, he is a top-5 QB, maybe top-3. If he got protection and
weapons, he will pick your defense apart.
Why should we be excited about the Chargers offense in 2016? The first
answer is Ken Whisenhunt, who was signed as their offensive coordinator.
He was the Chargers' OC in 2013, the year the Chargers finished 2nd in
NYPPA (7.5) and 2nd in pass DVOA (52.5%). During the last 10 years, the
pass DVOA number of 50% was crossed only 13 times. In 2013, the Chargers
made the playoffs. That year was also Rivers' best season as a Charger
with a completion percentage of 69.5% and a TD-INT ratio of 32-11. The
next answer is regression to the mean. Based on statistical laws, there
is no chance they will have such an injury-plagued season again. We can
expect the Chargers to be a top-5 offense in 2016.
San Diego had a lot of close games (within a TD) despite their bad
season. They went 3-8 in these close games. This is also an indicator of
regression coming next season, as it is tough to have such a poor
record again in close games. They were competitive in a lot of games.
Especially
early in the season, the public will underestimate this Chargers team
which leads to inflated lines for guys who study the teams.