34-32
2014: 83-51 (62%)
Tennessee Titans +3 -110
Everyone and their mother in law seems to be on the Jaguars. But this game is classic “public perception vs. reality”. The Jaguars have beaten the Ravens at Baltimore while the Titans lost by 17 at home. This screams Jaguars, doesn’t it? Well, the Jags were very lucky to get the outright win against the now 2-7 Ravens who have some serious injury troubles and the Titans had a one-possession game going into the fourth quarter against the 9-0 Panthers who are on a 13-game winning streak in the regular season. The Titans actually OUTGAINED the Panthers by 0.6 yards per play! Marcus Mariota actually had a very solid game against one of the best defenses in the league. At the end the Panthers benefited from two turnovers and grinded the Titans out. The Jaguars on the other side were outgained by 2.2 yards per play and 139 total yards. The Ravens had four turnovers and committed 121 yards via 9 penalties. The Jaguars had a poor 3.7 yards per play. So why are the Titans bet up to +3? Because Joe Public just looks at results.
The Jaguars had a crazy game against the Jets, no doubt about it – I gave them credit. But the Jags were well rested off a bye while the Jets were in terrible shape after the Patriots game and needed the 10 days of rest badly. Against the Bills and Ravens, Blake Bortles was a combined 35/74 (32%) for 370 yards & 5 sacks which equals 4.7 NYPPA. This is below Geno Smith’s level from 2014.
The Titans have a rookie head coach which is bad on a short week, but I am focusing on LeBeau here. To have him on a short week is fairly enough and a coaching advantage over the Jaguars IMO. Last season he already blanked Blake Bortles with the Steelers defense and I would take the Titans defense over the Steelers one from 2014. The Titans actually have played very solid on defense despite injuries. Last week both starting CBs were out. Perrish Cox comes back which is huge for the Titans. The Jaguars will have a tough game on offense.
I will take the better team in better shape getting a FG. Titans by 7+.