Colts vs Patriots Betting Analysis
The Patriots have averaged nearly 40 rushing attempts, 200 yards and four ground scores in three previous blowout wins over the Colts. In that week 11 42-20 thumping at the hands of the Pats, Jonas Gray rushed for 202 of New England’s 246 rushing yards. Three of Indy’s final four opponents of the season ran the ball 32 times or more. The Colts need to change how they start games. In the first quarter, they have just seven points in two playoff games after averaging 6.7 points in the first quarter in 16 regular-season games.
The Patriots have won each of their past five meetings with Indianapolis and are averaging 41.2 points per game in those contests. Luck has been at the controls for three of those affairs and the Colts have been routed each time, being outscored 144-66.
Indianapolis Colts (11-5):
The Colts are 0-3 against New England since Luck took over in 2012, and have been outscored 144-66 in those three games.
The Indy offense is obviously the team’s strength and finished third in the NFL with 406.6 ypg but was No. 1 overall in passing with 305.9 of those yards coming through the air thanks to Luck, who is just the eighth QB in NFL history to toss 40 TDs in a season. Luck has a several talented weapons starting with the speedy T.Y. Hilton, 1,345 receiving yards with 1,159 of them coming after the first month. Tight ends Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener each had eight TD receptions in the regular season. The running game has been non-existent and there is no reason to think that will change in this game.
The Colts defense has been mediocre and had troubles putting together a consistant pass rush. Veteran linebacker D’Qwell Jackson is the leader of the unit in his first season since coming over from Cleveland, pacing the AFC with 140 total tackles. The defensive backfield is highlighted by Vontae Davis, one of football’s best man-to-man coverage corners as well as veteran safety Mike Adams, who led the team with a career-high five INTs this season.
New England Patriots: (12-4)
In last year’s divisional round, the result was much like the Week 11 game, a 43-22 Pats win as New England rushed for 234 yards and six touchdowns.
Last week, Brady’s yardage total and 33 completions in 50 attempts each set new franchise records for a playoff game. Rob Gronkowski caught one of Brady’s touchdown throws in a 7-reception, 108- yard effort. Danny Amendola finished with a pair of touchdown grabs for New England, including a 51-yard catch from wide receiver Julian Edelman on a trick play in the third quarter.
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See my write up and picks for the Packers vs Seahawks game and then make a judgement.
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