division games if they lost the last game by 8 or more points.
ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 10-3
Play Against: Miami Dolphins
ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 10-3
Play Against: Miami Dolphins
ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 10-3
Play Against: Miami Dolphins
Bills 2-20 ATS the week AFTER beating the Dolphins
Broncos: first time in 33 games not favored
Colts off a loss: 13-1 ATS (lone loss was this past Monday)
Cowboys when favored after a win: 1-13 ATS
Dolphins as a home favorite: 10-35 ATS
Jets as a home favorite: 53-87 ATS
Packers within division: 34-14 ATS
Patriots at double digit favorites: 6-20 ATS
Raiders in Eastern Time Zone: Lost 13 in a row straight-up (4-9 ATS)
Saints off a road loss: 20-4 ATS
Saints at home (coached by Sean Payton): 17-0-1 ATS last 18 games
Saints favored by a touchdown or more: 13-2 ATSBills 2-20 ATS the week AFTER beating the Dolphins
Broncos: first time in 33 games not favored
Colts off a loss: 13-1 ATS (lone loss was this past Monday)
Cowboys when favored after a win: 1-13 ATS
Dolphins as a home favorite: 10-35 ATS
Jets as a home favorite: 53-87 ATS
Packers within division: 34-14 ATS
Patriots at double digit favorites: 6-20 ATS
Raiders in Eastern Time Zone: Lost 13 in a row straight-up (4-9 ATS)
Saints off a road loss: 20-4 ATS
Saints at home (coached by Sean Payton): 17-0-1 ATS last 18 games
Saints favored by a touchdown or more: 13-2 ATSGood Teams – At Least 10 Wins Last 16 Games
Play the ‘over’ in September when Good Teams are coming off of a straight up double-digit win (67-35-1, 65.7%): There is a direct correlation between winning by 10 points or more and games going ‘over’, and Good Teams are more apt to repeat good performances the following week. This even applied to defensive minded teams as they too tend to go ‘over’ in double-digit wins as their fine defense usually leads to good field position. Qualifying ‘overs’: San Francisco at Arizona, Pittsburgh at Carolina, Tennessee at Cincinnati and Oakland at New England.
Play against Good Teams as September road underdogs (50-36-7, 58.1% ATS):Sometimes bettors can get too stuck on the previous season and they automatically flock to teams coming off of double-digit-win seasons when they turn up as underdogs early the following year. Oddsmakers are quite aware of this, so when those previous winners turn up as underdogs early, there is usually a good reason for it. Qualifier: Seattle -4½ over Denver.
Play the ‘over’ when Good Teams are favored in September division games (69-46-2, 60.0%): Just like any other sport, NFL teams are more familiar with division opponents that any other teams on their schedule, and that is not to mention that division games are the most important contests. Truly good teams know how to take advantage of familiar defenses, especially if they are favored, and they usually get up for these games. That often results in higher scoring, especially when the familiar opponents try to keep pace. Qualifying ‘overs’: Washington at Philadelphia and San Francisco at Arizona.
Bad Teams – At Least 10 Losses Last 16 Games
Play on Bad Teams as September road underdogs (120-85-12, 58.5% ATS):Perception is a wonderful thing, and novice bettors almost always shy away from teams that looked awful the previous year when they are road underdogs early on the following season. Thus, the books can pad the lines of these games a bit, inherently giving value to the dirty dogs. This is also a very good winning percentage for this size of a sampling. Qualifiers: Minnesota +9½, Oakland +14 and Washington +6.
Good Teams – At Least 10 Wins Last 16 Games
Play the ‘over’ in September when Good Teams are coming off of a straight up double-digit win (67-35-1, 65.7%): There is a direct correlation between winning by 10 points or more and games going ‘over’, and Good Teams are more apt to repeat good performances the following week. This even applied to defensive minded teams as they too tend to go ‘over’ in double-digit wins as their fine defense usually leads to good field position. Qualifying ‘overs’: San Francisco at Arizona, Pittsburgh at Carolina, Tennessee at Cincinnati and Oakland at New England.
Play against Good Teams as September road underdogs (50-36-7, 58.1% ATS):Sometimes bettors can get too stuck on the previous season and they automatically flock to teams coming off of double-digit-win seasons when they turn up as underdogs early the following year. Oddsmakers are quite aware of this, so when those previous winners turn up as underdogs early, there is usually a good reason for it. Qualifier: Seattle -4½ over Denver.
Play the ‘over’ when Good Teams are favored in September division games (69-46-2, 60.0%): Just like any other sport, NFL teams are more familiar with division opponents that any other teams on their schedule, and that is not to mention that division games are the most important contests. Truly good teams know how to take advantage of familiar defenses, especially if they are favored, and they usually get up for these games. That often results in higher scoring, especially when the familiar opponents try to keep pace. Qualifying ‘overs’: Washington at Philadelphia and San Francisco at Arizona.
Bad Teams – At Least 10 Losses Last 16 Games
Play on Bad Teams as September road underdogs (120-85-12, 58.5% ATS):Perception is a wonderful thing, and novice bettors almost always shy away from teams that looked awful the previous year when they are road underdogs early on the following season. Thus, the books can pad the lines of these games a bit, inherently giving value to the dirty dogs. This is also a very good winning percentage for this size of a sampling. Qualifiers: Minnesota +9½, Oakland +14 and Washington +6.
Chargers (1-1) @ Bills (2-0)-- Buffalo is +4 in turnovers; they won field position by 14-22 yards, thats why they're 2-0. Bills are 7-2 vs spread at home under Marrone, 1-1 when favored- they're 6-3 in games where spread was 3 or less points. Chargers hung 30 points on Seattle last week, after blowing second half lead in Arizona week before; Bolts are 10-3-1 in last 14 games as road underdog, but 2-7 in last nine games on artificial turf. San Diego won three of last four series games, winning last meeting 37-10 at home in '11. Chargers are just 4-9-1 in game following their last 14 wins. Bills are only team not to gain a first down via penalty this season- there have been 149 such first downs in two weeks of play.
Cowboys (1-1) @ Rams (1-1)— Tampa Bay’s Rainey ran for 144 yards vs Rams last week, with Bucs having little passing threat; St Louis will have to do better vs explosive Murray and Romo’s passing—Dallas ran for 220 yards in decisive win at Tennessee last week, but Cowboys are just 10-19 vs spread in game following last 29 wins, 11-15-1 in games where spread was 3 or less (Rams are 6-4 in such games under Fisher). Pokes are 3-7-1 as road favorites in Garrett era. 3rd-string QB (not anymore) Davis led road win in first NFL start at Tampa. Home side won last four series games; Dallas split two visits here, last of which was in ’08-- Rams lost 34-7/31-7 in last two games with Dallas, in ‘11/’13. Former Ram head coach Linehan is play-caller for Dallas; he is a better play caller than he was a head coach.
Redskins (1-1) @ Eagles (2-0)—Iggles are first-ever NFL team to start season 2-0 when they trailed both games by 14+ points in second half; they’ve been held without TD in first half of six of last 12 games, but scored 3+ TDs in second half in last four of those- they’ve won seven of last 10 games with Redskins, but Washington is 4-3 in last seven visits here. Cousins started last three games LY, so this isn’t new for him; he was 22-33/250 with two TDs in relief of RGIII in last week’s easy win—he’s moving up in class here. Skins covered once in last seven games as road dog, failing to cover last four tries as road dog. Eagles are 4-4 as home favorite under Kelly, 10-17 in last 27 as HF overall; they’re 6-8 off a win, 5-5 under Kelly.
Texans (2-0) @ Giants (0-2)—Houston started out 2-0 LY, never won another game; Giants started 0-6, so sense of urgency for both sides here, though Big Blue’s leaky OL is source of great concern for immobile Manning. Texans allowed only three TDs in first two games; they’re 9-7-1 as road favorite since ’10, 14-10-1 off a win, but 6-12-3 vs NFC teams. Giants are 4-7 in games where spread was 3 or less points; they lost to Cardinal backup QB Stanton last week- they’re 5-12-1 in games vs AFC foes. Giants won two of three in seldom-played series; Texans lost 14-10 in only visit here (’06). Giants are 4-5-1 in last ten games as home underdog, 4-6 in game following their last ten losses.
Vikings (1-1) @ Saints (0-2)—Peterson is out for Vikes here, as Zimmer is dealt cruel blow after waiting until age 58 for HC job. Minnesota is 10-5-1 vs spread off a loss, 12-9 in last 21 games as road dogs- they ran ball for only 54 yards last week, lost field position by 22 yards, in addition to getting FG blocked for TD. Cassel threw four picks last week, is headed into a hornet’s nest this week. NO in desperate straits here after losing first two games on road by total of five points, despite scoring 55 points; they’ve won five of last six home openers, are 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine. Saints are 18-3 as home favorites last three years, 20-6-1 vs spread in last 27 non-divisional home games. Seven of their last ten home openers stayed under total.
Chargers (1-1) @ Bills (2-0)-- Buffalo is +4 in turnovers; they won field position by 14-22 yards, thats why they're 2-0. Bills are 7-2 vs spread at home under Marrone, 1-1 when favored- they're 6-3 in games where spread was 3 or less points. Chargers hung 30 points on Seattle last week, after blowing second half lead in Arizona week before; Bolts are 10-3-1 in last 14 games as road underdog, but 2-7 in last nine games on artificial turf. San Diego won three of last four series games, winning last meeting 37-10 at home in '11. Chargers are just 4-9-1 in game following their last 14 wins. Bills are only team not to gain a first down via penalty this season- there have been 149 such first downs in two weeks of play.
Cowboys (1-1) @ Rams (1-1)— Tampa Bay’s Rainey ran for 144 yards vs Rams last week, with Bucs having little passing threat; St Louis will have to do better vs explosive Murray and Romo’s passing—Dallas ran for 220 yards in decisive win at Tennessee last week, but Cowboys are just 10-19 vs spread in game following last 29 wins, 11-15-1 in games where spread was 3 or less (Rams are 6-4 in such games under Fisher). Pokes are 3-7-1 as road favorites in Garrett era. 3rd-string QB (not anymore) Davis led road win in first NFL start at Tampa. Home side won last four series games; Dallas split two visits here, last of which was in ’08-- Rams lost 34-7/31-7 in last two games with Dallas, in ‘11/’13. Former Ram head coach Linehan is play-caller for Dallas; he is a better play caller than he was a head coach.
Redskins (1-1) @ Eagles (2-0)—Iggles are first-ever NFL team to start season 2-0 when they trailed both games by 14+ points in second half; they’ve been held without TD in first half of six of last 12 games, but scored 3+ TDs in second half in last four of those- they’ve won seven of last 10 games with Redskins, but Washington is 4-3 in last seven visits here. Cousins started last three games LY, so this isn’t new for him; he was 22-33/250 with two TDs in relief of RGIII in last week’s easy win—he’s moving up in class here. Skins covered once in last seven games as road dog, failing to cover last four tries as road dog. Eagles are 4-4 as home favorite under Kelly, 10-17 in last 27 as HF overall; they’re 6-8 off a win, 5-5 under Kelly.
Texans (2-0) @ Giants (0-2)—Houston started out 2-0 LY, never won another game; Giants started 0-6, so sense of urgency for both sides here, though Big Blue’s leaky OL is source of great concern for immobile Manning. Texans allowed only three TDs in first two games; they’re 9-7-1 as road favorite since ’10, 14-10-1 off a win, but 6-12-3 vs NFC teams. Giants are 4-7 in games where spread was 3 or less points; they lost to Cardinal backup QB Stanton last week- they’re 5-12-1 in games vs AFC foes. Giants won two of three in seldom-played series; Texans lost 14-10 in only visit here (’06). Giants are 4-5-1 in last ten games as home underdog, 4-6 in game following their last ten losses.
Vikings (1-1) @ Saints (0-2)—Peterson is out for Vikes here, as Zimmer is dealt cruel blow after waiting until age 58 for HC job. Minnesota is 10-5-1 vs spread off a loss, 12-9 in last 21 games as road dogs- they ran ball for only 54 yards last week, lost field position by 22 yards, in addition to getting FG blocked for TD. Cassel threw four picks last week, is headed into a hornet’s nest this week. NO in desperate straits here after losing first two games on road by total of five points, despite scoring 55 points; they’ve won five of last six home openers, are 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine. Saints are 18-3 as home favorites last three years, 20-6-1 vs spread in last 27 non-divisional home games. Seven of their last ten home openers stayed under total.
Titans (1-1) @ Bengals (2-0)—Cincy looking like strong outfit after outgaining Atlanta by 163 yards with +3 turnover ratio in easy win, week after they pulled out divisional road win at Baltimore; Bengals won three of last four in series where road team won five of last seven meetings. Titans won six of last seven visits here, in what used to be divisional rivalry. Bengals covered last four tries as non-divisional home favorite, after being 7-21-1 in that role from ’04-’12; they’re 23-10 vs spread in game following their last 33 wins. Titans covered four of last six as road underdog, 11 of last 16 non-divisional road games- they’re 18-14-3 off a loss. Cincy will try to establish Bernard on ground after Dallas ran for 220 yards vs Titans last week.
Ravens (1-1) @ Browns (1-1)—Cleveland’s first two games were decided by total of five points; they’ve rallied to tie/take lead in both games-- their 24-18 win over Ravens in last meeting LY snapped 11-game series skid. Baltimore won five of last six visits here (their old home) with all five wins by 10+ points. Last 12 series games were all decided by 12+ points. Ravens lost 10 of last 13 road openers; they’re 5-10-1 vs spread on road last two years, 2-8 in last 10 road games SU. Hoyer is 4-1 as Browns’ starting QB; Cleveland put up 27-26 points vs two of better teams in NFL, though Saints have bad defense. Browns covered five of last seven divisional home games. Ravens are 7-11-1 in last 19 games where spread was 3 or less points.
Packers (1-1) @ Lions (1-1)—Green Bay won 15 of last 17 games in this rivalry, and Rodgers didn’t play in either loss; Pack split last four visits here- they were down 21-3 at home to Jets last week, after losing opener at Seattle, but rallied to even record. Pack covered 17 of last 24 NFC North road games; they’re 8-9 SU in last 17 road games, 4-9 vs spread in last 13 games on artificial turf, 8-11 in games with spread of 3 or less. Detroit is 8-15-1 vs spread in game following its last 24 losses; they’re 6-9-1 in games with spread of 3 or less, 8-4 in last 12 NFC North home games. Lions ran ball for only 76-70 yards in first two games. Pack lost field position by 14-6 yards in first two games; they have three 80+-yard TD drives.
Colts (0-2) @ Jaguars (0-2)—Jax has been outscored 75-10 in three halves since they led opener 17-0 at half in Philly; they’ve lost last three games with Indy by 17-24-20 points, after winning four of five vs Colts before that. Jags are 6-18-1 in last 25 games as home dog, are facing Colt squad that blew 20-6 3rd quarter lead Monday, after losing opener in Denver, so Indy is 0-2, but they played two of best three teams in NFL- now they’re playing one of worst. Indy won 27-10/37-3 in last two visits here; they’re 15-6-1 in last 22 games as a road favorite, 4-1-1 under Pagano. Over last six years, Colts are 13-4-1 as an AFC South road favorite. Jags lost five of last seven home openers, scoring total of 25 points in last three.
Raiders (0-2) @ Patriots (1-1)—New England won 11 of last 12 home openers, but are 3-5 vs spread in last eight; they’re 15-9 in last 24 games as a non-divisional home favorite, but 1-7 in last eight games when laying double digits. Pats won last three games with Oakland by 10-23-12 points. Raiders are only team starting a rookie QB; they’re just 5-21 on 3rd down, and lost opener in Swamp with a +2 turnover ratio (NFL teams are 17-2 this year with a +2 or better TO ratio). Oakland is 8-6-1 in last 15 games as a non-divisional road dog, but covered only once in last five games as a double digit dog. Patriots have only six second half points in two games, but they had big lead at half last week and didn’t need to score after halftime.
Titans (1-1) @ Bengals (2-0)—Cincy looking like strong outfit after outgaining Atlanta by 163 yards with +3 turnover ratio in easy win, week after they pulled out divisional road win at Baltimore; Bengals won three of last four in series where road team won five of last seven meetings. Titans won six of last seven visits here, in what used to be divisional rivalry. Bengals covered last four tries as non-divisional home favorite, after being 7-21-1 in that role from ’04-’12; they’re 23-10 vs spread in game following their last 33 wins. Titans covered four of last six as road underdog, 11 of last 16 non-divisional road games- they’re 18-14-3 off a loss. Cincy will try to establish Bernard on ground after Dallas ran for 220 yards vs Titans last week.
Ravens (1-1) @ Browns (1-1)—Cleveland’s first two games were decided by total of five points; they’ve rallied to tie/take lead in both games-- their 24-18 win over Ravens in last meeting LY snapped 11-game series skid. Baltimore won five of last six visits here (their old home) with all five wins by 10+ points. Last 12 series games were all decided by 12+ points. Ravens lost 10 of last 13 road openers; they’re 5-10-1 vs spread on road last two years, 2-8 in last 10 road games SU. Hoyer is 4-1 as Browns’ starting QB; Cleveland put up 27-26 points vs two of better teams in NFL, though Saints have bad defense. Browns covered five of last seven divisional home games. Ravens are 7-11-1 in last 19 games where spread was 3 or less points.
Packers (1-1) @ Lions (1-1)—Green Bay won 15 of last 17 games in this rivalry, and Rodgers didn’t play in either loss; Pack split last four visits here- they were down 21-3 at home to Jets last week, after losing opener at Seattle, but rallied to even record. Pack covered 17 of last 24 NFC North road games; they’re 8-9 SU in last 17 road games, 4-9 vs spread in last 13 games on artificial turf, 8-11 in games with spread of 3 or less. Detroit is 8-15-1 vs spread in game following its last 24 losses; they’re 6-9-1 in games with spread of 3 or less, 8-4 in last 12 NFC North home games. Lions ran ball for only 76-70 yards in first two games. Pack lost field position by 14-6 yards in first two games; they have three 80+-yard TD drives.
Colts (0-2) @ Jaguars (0-2)—Jax has been outscored 75-10 in three halves since they led opener 17-0 at half in Philly; they’ve lost last three games with Indy by 17-24-20 points, after winning four of five vs Colts before that. Jags are 6-18-1 in last 25 games as home dog, are facing Colt squad that blew 20-6 3rd quarter lead Monday, after losing opener in Denver, so Indy is 0-2, but they played two of best three teams in NFL- now they’re playing one of worst. Indy won 27-10/37-3 in last two visits here; they’re 15-6-1 in last 22 games as a road favorite, 4-1-1 under Pagano. Over last six years, Colts are 13-4-1 as an AFC South road favorite. Jags lost five of last seven home openers, scoring total of 25 points in last three.
Raiders (0-2) @ Patriots (1-1)—New England won 11 of last 12 home openers, but are 3-5 vs spread in last eight; they’re 15-9 in last 24 games as a non-divisional home favorite, but 1-7 in last eight games when laying double digits. Pats won last three games with Oakland by 10-23-12 points. Raiders are only team starting a rookie QB; they’re just 5-21 on 3rd down, and lost opener in Swamp with a +2 turnover ratio (NFL teams are 17-2 this year with a +2 or better TO ratio). Oakland is 8-6-1 in last 15 games as a non-divisional road dog, but covered only once in last five games as a double digit dog. Patriots have only six second half points in two games, but they had big lead at half last week and didn’t need to score after halftime.
49ers (1-1) @ Cardinals (2-0)—Palmer’s arm is an issue; backup Stanton was 14-29/142 in win at Swamp last week, as Redbirds won despite being outgained by 75 yards- they were +4 in turnovers, won field position by 14 yards. Arizona lost nine of last ten games with 49ers, losing last four, with three of four by 12+ points; Niners won four of last five visits here, with three of the five decided by 4 or less points. SF allowed six first downs via penalty last week; they’re just 5-7 vs spread in last 12 divisional road games, compared to 14-6-1 in last 21 non-division road tilts; they’re 19-6-4 vs spread in game following last 29 losses. Arizona is 4-7-1 in NFC West home games, 7-3-1 after last 11 wins, 7-1-1 in games with spread of 3 or less.
Broncos (2-0) @ Seahawks (1-1)—Seattle crushed Broncs 43-8 in Super Bowl in February, are smarting after giving up 30 points in San Diego last week, with Bolts converting 10-17 on 3rd down. Seattle is 13-5 as home favorites under Carroll, 16-8-1 after a loss, 12-4 in non-divisional home games, 8-8-1 vs AFC teams. First road game for Denver squad that scored only 10 second half points in two home wins; Broncos won five of last seven visits here, are 4-6 in last ten road openers, but 4-2 as an underdog in road openers. Denver is 20-12-1 vs spread off a win under Fox, 4-3 as road dog under Fox. Last time they were a road dog was Week 5 of ’12. Denver is 7-4-2 vs spread in last 13 games vs AFC teams. Curious to see if #18 goes after mouthy CB Sherman the way Chargers did.
Chiefs (0-2) @ Dolphins (1-1)—KC was 2-14 in 2012, then started out 9-0 LY; now they’re on 2-8 skid after going -3 in turnovers in 0-2 start this year, with no takeaways (-3). Chiefs are 3-1 as road dog under Reid- they covered last five divisional road games. Over last decade, Miami is 11-29 as home favorite, 4-5 under Philbin; they have covered seven of last ten non-divisional home games. Fish won last three series games by 3-7-28 points, but teams haven’t met in three years; Chiefs lost seven of last eight visits to South Beach, but last visit was in ’06. Will south Florida heat wilt a depleted (seven starters out) Chief team? Thru two weeks, non-divisional home favorites are 8-11 vs spread league-wide.
Steelers (1-1) @ Panthers (2-0)—Since 2004, Steelers are 19-6 as an underdog of 3 or less points; second straight primetime road game for Pitt, which had three extra days to prep after Thursday loss in Baltimore. Steelers won last four games with Carolina since losing 18-14 here in ’96, with all four wins by 10+ points. Pitt is 21-18-1 vs spread after a loss (7-9 last two years), 10-6 in last 16 vs AFC teams. Panthers are 10-4-1 as home favorite under Rivera, 6-8-1 vs NFC teams, 10-4 off a win- they’re +6 in turnovers (+3 in both games) already, haven’t allowed a first half point. New Carolina receivers are doing fine; they averaged 6.3 yards/pass attempt at Tampa, 6.4 last week, with two different QBs playing.
Bears (1-1) @ Jets (1-1)—Chicago lost at home to Buffalo, won at SF, hard team to figure; they’ve only run ball for 132 yards in two games, have only four plays of 20+ yards- with their WRs, they should have more of those. Bears are 3-12-2 in last 17 games where spread was 3 or less points; they’ve won last three games with Jets by 7-10-4 points, are 3-1 vs Jets in Swamp, with average total 22.0 in those four games. Gang Green is 4-0-1 in last five vs NFC, 20-13 under Ryan when spread was 3 or less points- they’re 9-6-1 in last 16 non-divisional home games. Jets ran ball for 146 yards at Lambeau, had 21-3 lead, but couldn’t hold it for 2-0 start- they’ve forced only one turnover (-2) this season, but do have three TD drives of 80+ yards.
49ers (1-1) @ Cardinals (2-0)—Palmer’s arm is an issue; backup Stanton was 14-29/142 in win at Swamp last week, as Redbirds won despite being outgained by 75 yards- they were +4 in turnovers, won field position by 14 yards. Arizona lost nine of last ten games with 49ers, losing last four, with three of four by 12+ points; Niners won four of last five visits here, with three of the five decided by 4 or less points. SF allowed six first downs via penalty last week; they’re just 5-7 vs spread in last 12 divisional road games, compared to 14-6-1 in last 21 non-division road tilts; they’re 19-6-4 vs spread in game following last 29 losses. Arizona is 4-7-1 in NFC West home games, 7-3-1 after last 11 wins, 7-1-1 in games with spread of 3 or less.
Broncos (2-0) @ Seahawks (1-1)—Seattle crushed Broncs 43-8 in Super Bowl in February, are smarting after giving up 30 points in San Diego last week, with Bolts converting 10-17 on 3rd down. Seattle is 13-5 as home favorites under Carroll, 16-8-1 after a loss, 12-4 in non-divisional home games, 8-8-1 vs AFC teams. First road game for Denver squad that scored only 10 second half points in two home wins; Broncos won five of last seven visits here, are 4-6 in last ten road openers, but 4-2 as an underdog in road openers. Denver is 20-12-1 vs spread off a win under Fox, 4-3 as road dog under Fox. Last time they were a road dog was Week 5 of ’12. Denver is 7-4-2 vs spread in last 13 games vs AFC teams. Curious to see if #18 goes after mouthy CB Sherman the way Chargers did.
Chiefs (0-2) @ Dolphins (1-1)—KC was 2-14 in 2012, then started out 9-0 LY; now they’re on 2-8 skid after going -3 in turnovers in 0-2 start this year, with no takeaways (-3). Chiefs are 3-1 as road dog under Reid- they covered last five divisional road games. Over last decade, Miami is 11-29 as home favorite, 4-5 under Philbin; they have covered seven of last ten non-divisional home games. Fish won last three series games by 3-7-28 points, but teams haven’t met in three years; Chiefs lost seven of last eight visits to South Beach, but last visit was in ’06. Will south Florida heat wilt a depleted (seven starters out) Chief team? Thru two weeks, non-divisional home favorites are 8-11 vs spread league-wide.
Steelers (1-1) @ Panthers (2-0)—Since 2004, Steelers are 19-6 as an underdog of 3 or less points; second straight primetime road game for Pitt, which had three extra days to prep after Thursday loss in Baltimore. Steelers won last four games with Carolina since losing 18-14 here in ’96, with all four wins by 10+ points. Pitt is 21-18-1 vs spread after a loss (7-9 last two years), 10-6 in last 16 vs AFC teams. Panthers are 10-4-1 as home favorite under Rivera, 6-8-1 vs NFC teams, 10-4 off a win- they’re +6 in turnovers (+3 in both games) already, haven’t allowed a first half point. New Carolina receivers are doing fine; they averaged 6.3 yards/pass attempt at Tampa, 6.4 last week, with two different QBs playing.
Bears (1-1) @ Jets (1-1)—Chicago lost at home to Buffalo, won at SF, hard team to figure; they’ve only run ball for 132 yards in two games, have only four plays of 20+ yards- with their WRs, they should have more of those. Bears are 3-12-2 in last 17 games where spread was 3 or less points; they’ve won last three games with Jets by 7-10-4 points, are 3-1 vs Jets in Swamp, with average total 22.0 in those four games. Gang Green is 4-0-1 in last five vs NFC, 20-13 under Ryan when spread was 3 or less points- they’re 9-6-1 in last 16 non-divisional home games. Jets ran ball for 146 yards at Lambeau, had 21-3 lead, but couldn’t hold it for 2-0 start- they’ve forced only one turnover (-2) this season, but do have three TD drives of 80+ yards.
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