Analytic Investors - Correctly picked 8 of last 9 SBs

Forum: NFL Betting
Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Analytic Investors - Correctly picked 8 of last 9 SBs
gfinger PM gfinger
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Posted: 2/1/2013 8:35:01 PM

Investment 'Alpha' Points To Ravens Victory

What happens when you apply reversion to the mean, return on investment and a scattering of other investment metrics to the Super Bowl? A possible Baltimore Ravens victory, according to one L.A. investment firm.

The firm, which has been applying an investment-based formula to Super Bowl Sunday for the past five years, says this year’s analysis shines a favorable light on the Ravens, who go into the game as underdogs to the San Francisco 49ers.

“Do the 49ers have a weapon strong enough to stand up against the swan song of Ray Lewis and the Ravens? We think not,” Matthew Robinson, a CFA at Analytic Investors, writes in a report released today. “As 4-point underdogs and the lower alpha team, we’re tipping the Ravens to cover the spread, if not win this one outright.”

Robinson’s forecast rests on an analysis of all the NFL’s teams as though they were individual investments. Each team is assigned an alpha number, which represents the potential return on investment if wagers had been placed on the team to win against the spread in each of its regular season games.

Under that analysis, the Indianapolis Colts yielded the best returns, with an alpha of 59.2%, while the Jacksonville Jaguars were the worst “investment,” with an alpha of -68.5%.

The 49ers finished the season with an alpha of 23.1%, while the Ravens were at 2.3%. So how does that translate into a bet on the Ravens?

The Super Bowl prediction, according to Robinson, is based on one other investment metric: volatility.

History has shown that NFL teams not only display wild extremes in alpha season to season, but also from the regular season into the playoffs. In this year’s playoffs, lower alpha teams have an 8-2 record.

Hence, the recommended bet is on the Ravens—the lower alpha team.

“Theoretically, the Super Bowl should be no different than any other post-season game in that the underachiever, or lower-alpha team, will be relatively undervalued,” Robinson says.

NONEED4LUCK PM NONEED4LUCK
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Posted: 2/1/2013 9:00:58 PM
That's good to hear. I hope "theory" turns into "reality" on Sunday. Damn, I'm stoked to get this game on.
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ILPRATO PM ILPRATO
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Posted: 2/1/2013 11:18:51 PM
That firm can't even beat the s and p.
gfinger PM gfinger
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Posted: 2/2/2013 10:02:22 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ILPRATO:

That firm can't even beat the s and p.


How so? Their Global Equity Core fund has easily outpaced the S&P since inception. Nice try.
player PM player
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Posted: 2/2/2013 1:54:57 PM
you are basing a pick on that  GL bro
mynameken PM mynameken
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Posted: 2/2/2013 2:46:12 PM
winner winner THE FINEST STEAK DINNER!
DiscoD69 PM DiscoD69
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Posted: 2/2/2013 5:53:56 PM
Interesting. 
SharpCheddar PM SharpCheddar
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Posted: 2/2/2013 7:26:41 PM
Take the Ravens because their ATS record is bad? Great advice.
gfinger PM gfinger
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Posted: 2/2/2013 8:23:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by player:

you are basing a pick on that  GL bro


Who said that? I just posted this to show that there is a method involved to picing SB winners without handicapping the actual teams. And from what I've seen from this forum, no one has won 8 of the last 9 SBs, so they could use a new method. Using Alpha here is no different then picking a time to buy a stock. A team with a higher alpha, SF, will eventually digress. Lower alpha teams have an 8-2 record, can't argue that.
whodamanny76 PM whodamanny76
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Posted: 2/2/2013 11:37:03 PM
The "R" in Ravens comes before "S" in San Francisco so they will score first.  Teams that score first have a better record in the Super Bowl. 
wde PM wde
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Posted: 2/2/2013 11:55:32 PM
I PICK BALTIMORE TO WIN,  AND A GOOD STOCK TO BUY

IS  ECAU,  thank me later.

gfinger PM gfinger
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Posted: 2/4/2013 7:37:34 PM
Looks like these guys have now picked the last 9 of 10 using their Alpha logic. Keep this in mind next year guys.
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