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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: TOO MUCH is being made of the FATIGUE factor for the RAVENS
FSerpico send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 1/15/2013 10:57:54 PM
Yes the gm went into double OT and it was freezing and a highly emotional game with ebbs and flows, okay.. People forget that Lewis and Suggs missed a lot of games this season, the secondary is young other than Ed Reed who was basically sitting back in coverage all day waiting for Peyton to throw a pass longer than 10 yards.. Reed had a quiet game because manning wasn't manning.  The Ravens will have 8!  days of rest until kickoff on Sunday night. This isn't an inexperienced team entering Foxboro on Sunday that will be happy to just be there.. 8 days of rest will be enough for a veteran team to be mentally and physically prepared. Many of you are really discounting the incredible resiliency of this baltimore team. If the ravens lose it won't be because of friggin fatigue. Do the pats have a better back than ray rice ? No. Do that pats have a better receiver than torre smith? No. Ok Hernandez has the edge on Pitta but Flacco has shown he can outplay Brady in Foxboro and don't think for a second then ravens don't think they can beat the pats, that's half the battle. Love the points this weekend.
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#2
Posted: 1/15/2013 11:04:54 PM
I tend to think Welker is better than Smith. Agree with most everything else.
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#3
Posted: 1/19/2013 1:49:16 AM
I won't be taking the points, but that was a good post, FSerpico. 
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#4
Posted: 1/19/2013 1:57:30 AM
Still think patriots win big here. MrB!!! Holyshit. R u on the Pats?
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#5
Posted: 1/19/2013 2:34:06 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FSerpico:

Yes the gm went into double OT and it was freezing and a highly emotional game with ebbs and flows, okay.. People forget that Lewis and Suggs missed a lot of games this season, the secondary is young other than Ed Reed who was basically sitting back in coverage all day waiting for Peyton to throw a pass longer than 10 yards.. Reed had a quiet game because manning wasn't manning.  The Ravens will have 8!  days of rest until kickoff on Sunday night. This isn't an inexperienced team entering Foxboro on Sunday that will be happy to just be there.. 8 days of rest will be enough for a veteran team to be mentally and physically prepared. Many of you are really discounting the incredible resiliency of this baltimore team. If the ravens lose it won't be because of friggin fatigue. Do the pats have a better back than ray rice ? No. Do that pats have a better receiver than torre smith? No. Ok Hernandez has the edge on Pitta but Flacco has shown he can outplay Brady in Foxboro and don't think for a second then ravens don't think they can beat the pats, that's half the battle. Love the points this weekend.

Although this is completely the wrong way to 'cap' a game, I had to comment on this...ever heard of a guy named Wes Welker? 


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#6
Posted: 1/19/2013 5:49:30 AM
absolute nonsense Fserpico. Clearly you have never played sports at a HIGH level. the Ravens were completed gassed in the 4th quarter last week. If you can't see that then you are blind. They were gassed because of such an emotional effort the week before because if the history with the Colts as well as the altitude factor. 

I don't care how resilient you are there will come a time when you go back to the well one too many times that nothing is left. I Could give you NUMEROUS examples in sport where teams played back to back big games and then it eventually caught up with them. I've seen so many semi finals in sport where the underdog pulls off a huge upset only to come out flat in the final. It's so hard to get back up to that level a week or so later.

Sport at this level is played at an incredibly intensive level. There is a reason the NFL season is 20 or so weeks. It's because of the heavy demands of the game. For you to think fatigue will not be a factor in this game is VERY naive. You need more then 8 days to recover fully because of the physical, mental and emotional effort put into a game...

I'm not saying the Ravens can't cover but fatigue WILL be a factor, especially with an old team and the Ravens are an old team. Fatigue leads to drop passes, fumbles, bad coverage, dropped interceptions. I think it will be fatigue which causes the Ravens to lose this game more then anything else. I see a close first half and then then Pats pulling away 4th quarter....

When the game is over Sunday you will realise just how little you know about the dynamics of top class sports...


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#7
Posted: 1/19/2013 6:39:35 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Mack05:

absolute nonsense Fserpico. Clearly you have never played sports at a HIGH level. the Ravens were completed gassed in the 4th quarter last week. If you can't see that then you are blind. They were gassed because of such an emotional effort the week before because if the history with the Colts as well as the altitude factor. 

I don't care how resilient you are there will come a time when you go back to the well one too many times that nothing is left. I Could give you NUMEROUS examples in sport where teams played back to back big games and then it eventually caught up with them. I've seen so many semi finals in sport where the underdog pulls off a huge upset only to come out flat in the final. It's so hard to get back up to that level a week or so later.

Sport at this level is played at an incredibly intensive level. There is a reason the NFL season is 20 or so weeks. It's because of the heavy demands of the game. For you to think fatigue will not be a factor in this game is VERY naive. You need more then 8 days to recover fully because of the physical, mental and emotional effort put into a game...

I'm not saying the Ravens can't cover but fatigue WILL be a factor, especially with an old team and the Ravens are an old team. Fatigue leads to drop passes, fumbles, bad coverage, dropped interceptions. I think it will be fatigue which causes the Ravens to lose this game more then anything else. I see a close first half and then then Pats pulling away 4th quarter....

When the game is over Sunday you will realise just how little you know about the dynamics of top class sports...


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#8
Posted: 1/19/2013 7:25:19 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Mack05:

absolute nonsense Fserpico. Clearly you have never played sports at a HIGH level.

Sport at this level is played at an incredibly intensive level.

When the game is over Sunday you will realise just how little you know about the dynamics of top class sports...









Gee whiz, Mack05, you couldn't sound like a bigger know-it-all blowhard if you tried!  Hey, where can us ordinary citizens find your Hall of Fame plaque?  Is it in Canton, Springfield, or Cooperstown?
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#9
Posted: 1/19/2013 7:32:11 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FSerpico:

8 days of rest will be enough for a veteran team to be mentally and physically prepared.







In my opinion, if the oddsmakers had agreed with you on that, they would have posted the Patriots as 7-point favorites.  Instead, they sent out 9.5, and 70-80% of the public started shoving each other aside to grab all those (soon to be worthless) points.
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#10
Posted: 1/19/2013 7:36:13 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FSerpico:

...and don't think for a second then ravens don't think they can beat the pats, that's half the battle. 







I like what you said here.  The Ravens, unlike most teams that enter Gillette Stadium, won't be intimidated by the Patriots or the Patriots' home field.  Emotionally, they'll be ready, but physically?  I'll be surprised if they can keep up for more than one quarter.
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#11
Posted: 1/19/2013 7:37:43 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ActionMagnet:

Still think patriots win big here. MrB!!! Holyshit. R u on the Pats?








That's my intention, yes.    
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#12
Posted: 1/19/2013 10:33:52 AM
Mack - "When the game is over Sunday you will realise just how little you know about the dynamics of top class sports..."

When the game is over on Sunday the only thing I will realise is that I was either lucky or unlucky. No one can account for the unknown. Things happen on the field that just can't be explained at times.  I'm  glad that you understand the dynamics of top class sports, I'm sure that knowledge has gotten you far in life.
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#13
Posted: 1/19/2013 10:44:35 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MrBator:








I like what you said here.  The Ravens, unlike most teams that enter Gillette Stadium, won't be intimidated by the Patriots or the Patriots' home field.  Emotionally, they'll be ready, but physically?  I'll be surprised if they can keep up for more than one quarter.

Bator sounds like you're expecting a 38-20 type of game.Many were saying the same thing about SB 42. Football is funny sometimes. It's certainly possible that the pats win big and easily cover but I can't see that happening. I'd be less confdent if Cam Cameron ( mr conservative ) was still the OC of the ravens. i actually like how Caldwell has unleashed flacco and mixed it up with Rice and Pierce. As far as the line I'm seeing as low as 7.5 and 8. Good luck brother. Great to see you posting again.
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#14
Posted: 1/19/2013 11:04:11 AM
FS, here is the spread and consensus history of Giants/Packers in last year's NFC Divisional Playoff which is very similar to this game. 

http://contests.covers.com/Handicapping/ConsensusPick/consensus-pick.aspx?sport=NFL&eventID=30588&sportID=1
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#15
Posted: 1/19/2013 12:28:06 PM

Mack go away you are an idiot and add nothing to this board. Loud mouthed moron.

forget the fatigue factor its way down on the list as far as factors when capping a game. come on they had 8 days to rest. More important is how the teams match up and these two match up very well. Just look at the history of the two teams. Balt beat NE in the reg season. So now I should believe they are 9 points better then Balt come on

Bator let me guess you took Denver last week? Like when you took NE in the SB

This line is a joke from every angle. Now if you want to guess and believe what you see on TV and that is how you cap this game go ahead. You dont cap based on the team the first is value. Am I getting good value at 9 points. Hell yeah. When Balt played NE a few months ago the line was Balt -3 so in this months the line has moved 12 points gimme a break. If you guys spend 5 minutes capping this game you will see there is only one possible play. Biggest square play on sunday is taking  NE

Look at the ATL/SF game everybody is on SF including me. But you want value take ATL. A home dog in the NFC championship game. This  is the biggest home underdog in any round of the playoffs for a number 1 seed. Also the the biggest home underdog of any team in the conference championship. i still will go against these angles and take SF but I can understand why you would go the other way.

As far as NE I dont get why anyone would take them at this line

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#16
Posted: 1/19/2013 4:21:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WilliamMunny:

Bator let me guess you took Denver last week? Like when you took NE in the SB










WilliamMunny, that is an incorrect guess.  I took the Ravens +6.5 +110 and ML +290 at halftime.
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#17
Posted: 1/19/2013 4:25:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WilliamMunny:


forget the fatigue factor its way down on the list as far as factors when capping a game.










Not this time.  What a crucial mistake to disregard the very real fatigue factor for the Ravens in this game.
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#18
Posted: 1/19/2013 4:29:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WilliamMunny:

come on they had 8 days to rest.





After that frozen, 4.5 hour ordeal they persevered through in Denver, these poor dudes need another 8 just to be themselves again.

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#19
Posted: 1/19/2013 4:31:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WilliamMunny:


Am I getting good value at 9 points. Hell yeah.








You're gettin' Fool's Gold, brother.
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#20
Posted: 1/19/2013 4:36:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WilliamMunny:


Biggest square play on sunday is taking  NE

 





If that's true, then can you explain to me why every Tom, person, and Harry in Las Vegas this week is talking excitedly about the Ravens "keeping it close" and "revenge for last year" and "winning it for Ray."

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#21
Posted: 1/19/2013 4:54:32 PM
Bator, what are your thoughts on the NFC gm
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#22
Posted: 1/19/2013 5:35:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MrBator:





If that's true, then can you explain to me why every Tom, person, and Harry in Las Vegas this week is talking excitedly about the Ravens "keeping it close" and "revenge for last year" and "winning it for Ray."

I vociferously concur with this sentiment. I am amazed by the volume of people fighting and falling over one another to be the first to bet the Ravens. The overwhelming blindness is mesmerizing.

Like sheep to the slaughterhouse. Blowout looming in Foxborough.

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#23
Posted: 1/19/2013 6:03:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigNiner:

I vociferously concur with this sentiment. I am amazed by the volume of people fighting and falling over one another to be the first to bet the Ravens. The overwhelming blindness is mesmerizing.

Like sheep to the slaughterhouse. Blowout looming in Foxborough.

HMMMM it seemed to work for Pittsburgh and Jerome Bettis in 05  Oh but that SB wasnt fixed.......or better yet influenced by Levy
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#24
Posted: 1/19/2013 6:08:44 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by FritoLay:

HMMMM it seemed to work for Pittsburgh and Jerome Bettis in 05  Oh but that SB wasnt fixed.......or better yet influenced by Levy

Not trying to be smart, but I have no idea what this has to do with my post.

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#25
Posted: 1/19/2013 6:48:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Mack05:

absolute nonsense Fserpico. Clearly you have never played sports at a HIGH level. the Ravens were completed gassed in the 4th quarter last week. If you can't see that then you are blind. They were gassed because of such an emotional effort the week before because if the history with the Colts as well as the altitude factor. 

I don't care how resilient you are there will come a time when you go back to the well one too many times that nothing is left. I Could give you NUMEROUS examples in sport where teams played back to back big games and then it eventually caught up with them. I've seen so many semi finals in sport where the underdog pulls off a huge upset only to come out flat in the final. It's so hard to get back up to that level a week or so later.

Sport at this level is played at an incredibly intensive level. There is a reason the NFL season is 20 or so weeks. It's because of the heavy demands of the game. For you to think fatigue will not be a factor in this game is VERY naive. You need more then 8 days to recover fully because of the physical, mental and emotional effort put into a game...

I'm not saying the Ravens can't cover but fatigue WILL be a factor, especially with an old team and the Ravens are an old team. Fatigue leads to drop passes, fumbles, bad coverage, dropped interceptions. I think it will be fatigue which causes the Ravens to lose this game more then anything else. I see a close first half and then then Pats pulling away 4th quarter....

When the game is over Sunday you will realise just how little you know about the dynamics of top class sports...





 thank u
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