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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: trap game!!
makinmoney1213 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 8/23/2012 6:59:57 PM
i liked baltimore when it opened - 7.....now its been pounded down to -4.5 and i feel vegas is pushing the line themselves and not cause of overwhelming money on jags.....very fishy how this line has dropped the last few hours.....vegas would take a beating if jags cover....and vegas dont take beatings!!...enough said.......oh in closing im new in here and most dont know who i am yet but u will once the reg season gets underway.......winners starting thurs night week 1  will be 1st thread of season than......and in closing i do not bet pre season games ever so i will not have a care in world on who wins this above mentioned game,lol......good luck to all on this game......my opinion the only play is balt -4.5....if u got early at -7 u still good....i feel they win by 2 td's
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#2
Posted: 8/23/2012 7:06:42 PM
yes...vegas loves to open lines at 7 and move them down to -4.5 for shits and giggles   another rocket scientist joins covers. i cant wait for all your plays this season bro. there is no doubt in my mind you can smell a trap from a million miles away...you have a gift 
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#3
Posted: 8/23/2012 7:27:52 PM
yust called my book, he's got balt -6. connected and i don't think he would give it away. 1st wager (nfl) this year. I'LL BE ON THE RAVENS
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#4
Posted: 8/23/2012 7:33:34 PM
On Ravens 1st quarter. I only trust the starters.
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#5
Posted: 8/23/2012 8:07:12 PM
Ugh you gotta catch that Tory Smith. Would have been a wrap for us 1st quarter bettors. now gotta sweat this out!
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#6
Posted: 8/23/2012 8:29:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by badlands:

yes...vegas loves to open lines at 7 and move them down to -4.5 for shits and giggles   another rocket scientist joins covers. i cant wait for all your plays this season bro. there is no doubt in my mind you can smell a trap from a million miles away...you have a gift 


i could less if u agree with my thoughts badloser.....and the fact that im new on here means i dont know what im talking about according to u.....while u have thousands of posts and prob hit around 50% of your plays posted but by all means u can talk trash cause im new and unproven.....u will see starting week #1 how my plays are.....if u want to fade my plays than vegas thanks u now for your donation......i will let my plays speak for themselves,and i see yours also speak for themselves with about the same chance as flipping a coin,lmao.....oh good luck though badloser long time veteran hahaha
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#7
Posted: 8/23/2012 10:16:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by badlands:

yes...vegas loves to open lines at 7 and move them down to -4.5 for shits and giggles   another rocket scientist joins covers. i cant wait for all your plays this season bro. there is no doubt in my mind you can smell a trap from a million miles away...you have a gift 


hows the trap game looking now badlands?.....enough said!!......from here on out i will share thoughts on vegas reverse line movements and trap games so u guys dont fall into there trap and lose unecessary money......oh and mr veteran badlands how did your 35k+ posts help u out tonight?lol....and he had the nerve to call me a rocket scientist,lol....looks like u the one who needs to get back in the lab!!hahaha
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#8
Posted: 8/23/2012 10:39:32 PM
BALTIMORE 48  JACK 17.....ENOUGH SAID!
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#9
Posted: 8/23/2012 11:06:45 PM
There is no such thing as a trap game. Lines are made to get equal money on both sides of the bet to guarantee a profit. If the books get 50/50  on a game then they are guaranteed to make money at no risk. If the line looks low, there is a reason for it, maybe personnel problems or something the average gambler doesn't know about, but not to trap, that is a fallacy. 
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#10
Posted: 8/23/2012 11:54:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Goldfisch:

There is no such thing as a trap game. Lines are made to get equal money on both sides of the bet to guarantee a profit. If the books get 50/50  on a game then they are guaranteed to make money at no risk. If the line looks low, there is a reason for it, maybe personnel problems or something the average gambler doesn't know about, but not to trap, that is a fallacy. 


u are obviously eithe mis informed or just completely clueless.....its a guarantee fact there are trap game lines....and there are def games where vegas adjust lines to sway the public to one side(and its not cause people are pounding that side),vegas just moves the line and for some that dont believe this or disagree well than brush up on your gaming knowledge or u going to donate on daily basis!!.....read some books about gambling about proffessional gamblers and u will learn these mentioned facts....."the book of bookies" by james jeffries,and for the more advanced gamblers read "the smart money" by michael konik.....and a 3rd good book is "weighing the odds in sports betting" by king yao......even though im new to this covers forums im in this gambling business for over 27 years and just want to share my thoughts and plays to help us all make that money!!!
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#11
Posted: 8/24/2012 7:48:24 AM
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#12
Posted: 8/24/2012 12:51:38 PM
Welcome to Covers!

Very insight information and also thanks for listing the recommend books to read.

Question:

Why and how did you identify this game as a "trap" game based on line movement? 

My thinking is this and based on your theory: 

If the line opened up at BAL. -7 and dropped to BAL -4.5 throughout the day, most people (perhaps myself included) will interpret that as a lot of money is going towards JAGS to cover.  But as you pointed out, Vegas and the books aren't stupid or about to throw away money.  Are you suggesting beforehand that Vegas knew BAL would cover by more than 2-3 TDS and if that's the case, wouldn't it be more in their interest to open the line at BAL -10 and let the public slam JAGS down to +6 or something by game time and have 80% backing JAGS and walk away with a ton of profits?

I think when I see a line go from something like -7 to -4.5 I'm more incline to play the -4.5 or stay away from the game because how does anyone actually have reliable date to see where the sharps or public money is going?

Just curious for your insight and good luck on the season.
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#13
Posted: 8/24/2012 1:07:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by badlands:

yes...vegas loves to open lines at 7 and move them down to -4.5 for shits and giggles   another rocket scientist joins covers. i cant wait for all your plays this season bro. there is no doubt in my mind you can smell a trap from a million miles away...you have a gift 


Bads I love these threads because it shows who's completely clueless, and who has a grip on things.

Traps don't exist, period. You're trapping yourself with you're own flawed perception.
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#14
Posted: 8/24/2012 3:53:06 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by Spartacus10]

Bads I love these threads because it shows who's completely clueless, and who has a grip on things.

Traps don't exist, period. You're trapping yourself with you're own flawed perception.


yah u really got a tight grip on things when u come out and say trap lines dont exist,lol.....smartin up brother...pay attention and get a clue and u will earn money rather than come on here and bash me with ignorant thoughts
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#15
Posted: 8/24/2012 4:17:46 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by Dealhunter] Welcome to Covers!

Very insight information and also thanks for listing the recommend books to read.

Question:

Why and how did you identify this game as a "trap" game based on line movement? 

My thinking is this and based on your theory: 

If the line opened up at BAL. -7 and dropped to BAL -4.5 throughout the day, most people (perhaps myself included) will interpret that as a lot of money is going towards JAGS to cover.  But as you pointed out, Vegas and the books aren't stupid or about to throw away money.  Are you suggesting beforehand that Vegas knew BAL would cover by more than 2-3 TDS and if that's the case, wouldn't it be more in their interest to open the line at BAL -10 and let the public slam JAGS down to +6 or something by game time and have 80% backing JAGS and walk away with a ton of profits?

I think when I see a line go from something like -7 to -4.5 I'm more incline to play the -4.5 or stay away from the game because how does anyone actually have reliable date to see where the sharps or public money is going?

Just curious for your insight and good luck on the season.


trap game can be based on line movement,or can be right from opening line!....some people have argued that there are no such thing as trap lines,but they could not be more wrong...they def exist just not all that easy to spot and sometimes u wont at all.....

as for your question on last nights balt-jack pre season game i was def a reverse line movement by vegas.....opened at -7 and closed at - 4.5 in most spots.....ok 1st alarm was that this line basically jumped down on game day and really did not budge off the opening line all week.....so with this being said what happened on thurs that made the public all of a sudden jump on jack?...injury?,no....bad weather?no....starters time?no.....and they did not get hit down all week and only on gameday.....yes i understand that most action usually comes on game day but not this eye opening,lol.....2nd alarm is its a pre season game.....vegas is trying to say they got this much action on 1 preseason game?...extremly unlikely.....and alarm #3 for me was at -7 baltimore was the far better team so there was no reasoning why anyone would be betting the weaker side in jack...nevermind backing them and pounding it down 2.5 points,lol......all in all i seen this as a vegas reverse line movement game.....
as for vegas knowing beforehand?....i firmly believe they know damn well before hand whats going to happen.....and yes i know people are going to rip me apart cause im basically saying games are fixed!!.....u can disagree all u like thats fine....but my thinking and perception on games has netted me large profits over the years.....of course i lose sometimes,lol....we all do....but i certainly win a hell of a lot more than i lose!!
im a very picky person when it comes to actually playing a game....i will not force a play in cause its on tv,or its the sunday night game on national tv(i call the sunday night game the vgmb).....stands for vegas gets money back.....as i feel the sunday night game is largly influenced by vegas,they want u to lose this go home game for week and will do everything it can to get u on the wrong side....ex injuries,line movement,weather,basically any factor that will sway public on wrong side

sorry for long behind novel post people,lol.....was just trying to explain some of my reasonings behind plays!
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#16
Posted: 8/24/2012 4:17:51 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by Dealhunter] Welcome to Covers!

Very insight information and also thanks for listing the recommend books to read.

Question:

Why and how did you identify this game as a "trap" game based on line movement? 

My thinking is this and based on your theory: 

If the line opened up at BAL. -7 and dropped to BAL -4.5 throughout the day, most people (perhaps myself included) will interpret that as a lot of money is going towards JAGS to cover.  But as you pointed out, Vegas and the books aren't stupid or about to throw away money.  Are you suggesting beforehand that Vegas knew BAL would cover by more than 2-3 TDS and if that's the case, wouldn't it be more in their interest to open the line at BAL -10 and let the public slam JAGS down to +6 or something by game time and have 80% backing JAGS and walk away with a ton of profits?

I think when I see a line go from something like -7 to -4.5 I'm more incline to play the -4.5 or stay away from the game because how does anyone actually have reliable date to see where the sharps or public money is going?

Just curious for your insight and good luck on the season.


trap game can be based on line movement,or can be right from opening line!....some people have argued that there are no such thing as trap lines,but they could not be more wrong...they def exist just not all that easy to spot and sometimes u wont at all.....

as for your question on last nights balt-jack pre season game i was def a reverse line movement by vegas.....opened at -7 and closed at - 4.5 in most spots.....ok 1st alarm was that this line basically jumped down on game day and really did not budge off the opening line all week.....so with this being said what happened on thurs that made the public all of a sudden jump on jack?...injury?,no....bad weather?no....starters time?no.....and they did not get hit down all week and only on gameday.....yes i understand that most action usually comes on game day but not this eye opening,lol.....2nd alarm is its a pre season game.....vegas is trying to say they got this much action on 1 preseason game?...extremly unlikely.....and alarm #3 for me was at -7 baltimore was the far better team so there was no reasoning why anyone would be betting the weaker side in jack...nevermind backing them and pounding it down 2.5 points,lol......all in all i seen this as a vegas reverse line movement game.....
as for vegas knowing beforehand?....i firmly believe they know damn well before hand whats going to happen.....and yes i know people are going to rip me apart cause im basically saying games are fixed!!.....u can disagree all u like thats fine....but my thinking and perception on games has netted me large profits over the years.....of course i lose sometimes,lol....we all do....but i certainly win a hell of a lot more than i lose!!
im a very picky person when it comes to actually playing a game....i will not force a play in cause its on tv,or its the sunday night game on national tv(i call the sunday night game the vgmb).....stands for vegas gets money back.....as i feel the sunday night game is largly influenced by vegas,they want u to lose this go home game for week and will do everything it can to get u on the wrong side....ex injuries,line movement,weather,basically any factor that will sway public on wrong side

sorry for long behind novel post people,lol.....was just trying to explain some of my reasonings behind plays!
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#17
Posted: 8/24/2012 4:18:25 PM
sorry for repeat post...clicked twice by accident....good luck to all
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#18
Posted: 8/24/2012 4:27:47 PM
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#19
Posted: 8/25/2012 6:05:12 AM
Due to the length of this post I have broken it up into 2 parts.

If I may weigh in on this argument ... TRAP games per se used to exist in the days I used to go to my local bookie in the back room of a sports bar who got their opening line from the back pages of a newspaper and who was trying to suck money on a particular side by inflating the clientele's favorite teams...Usually such a chap would claim he knew inside information and all that other tout crap of the pre-internet wagering era.... However, these days, there is no such thing as "inside information" as news is pretty much known by all instantly and if they don't know the story behind a line movement all it takes is some internet sleuth work to find out the story behind a line movement.

I remember when Michael “Roxy” Roxborough's Las Vegas Sports Consultants used to set the line for the sportsbooks. LVSC used their sources to tap into all the information not readily available to the general public and as such much of the public was left scratching their heads. Sportsbooks used to have the edge when the services that set the official Vegas Line (usually Las Vegas Sports Consultants) knew something that the public didn't. The internet changed this dramatically. There are no more secrets in betting but in fact, everyone wagering serious money probably sees their live odds screen flash at the same time.

The business of setting the official line is so important that Cantor Fitzgerald stepped in and purchased Las Vegas Sports Consultants and this firm continues to compile what is known as the "consensus opening line" and charges a hefty fee to its customers for it.

At this point you must make the distinction between the "oddsmaker" and the "sportsbooks" because a vast majority of "sportsbooks" buy the opening line from the oddsmaker, namely LVSC.

THIS is where the individual bet shops start to change their lines according to public sentiment, perception and in consultation with their own in-house experts (sportsbook managers/line makers).

The thinking that there are 10 guys in a smoke filled room setting a purposely false line is comical. There are so many professional syndicates that would jump on that "bad" number in an instant and kill the books. Sportsbooks don't want to hang bad numbers. They want to hang numbers that will draw balanced action. If a sportsbook purchased the consensus opening line from LVSC "for example" that had the Patriots -1 at home vs Buffalo, the sportsbook would take a beating on Patriot money so at that point the sportsbook manager would have the discretion of opening their line to -8 (example)

How long will an "oddsmaker" survive by selling "fixed" lines to a sportsbook in the hopes of trying to suck in the public?

Then consider that what you are implying; It would mean that every bet shop, Vegas sportsbook, European, Asian and off-shore book would simultaneously collude on a "number" and hang the same number. This is nonsensical thinking. The notion of a trap game would infer that many people have knowledge that the line is "fixed" ... Don't you think that this would then create the opportunity for massive amounts of money going to the "right side"... i.e. The side the sportsbook doesn't want you to bet? Vegas doesn't hang the line....the sportsbooks do, independantly based on their money flow and after considering the consensus opening line. This is why different betting outlets often have .5 to 1 point differences at times.

...Continued
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#20
Posted: 8/25/2012 6:05:56 AM
Part 2 (continued)


Certainly there are times they book more money when one sided action is present for a variety of reasons. Big sportsbook wons such as the JACK game don't happen all the tome. Conversly they are also on the wrong side of one-sided action too.

Let alone the implied collusion, you would also have to factor how a purposely "BAD" or "trap" line could potentially impact all parlay tickets, exotics, teasers etc. A book is asking for trouble by purposely exposing itself to a bad line.

What happened in the Baltimore game was not a case of a trap line. if you put aside that drivel and break it down, 7 point favorites have been an a very poor in the pre-season. Any serious handicapper with access to historical information knew this.

But that wasn't the whole story ... Experienced pre-season bettors knew that Jacksonville was 16-5 ATS as pre-season dogs going into that game, one of the best underdogs in "scrub" football. Couple that with the fact that Baltimore is a just an average performer as a pre-season favorite. Also, reports indicated that Jack was going to stick with their starters for 3 quarters and Baltimore for "perhaps" a half. The Ravens secondary didn't look sharp their first two games and the Jags were running the ball well their first two games. Most of the data pointed to an edge to the Jags at +7. We can second guess everything after the fact but we don't have the ability to bet after the fact now do we?

Now go on to those sites (won't list here) that releases "service plays" and you will see just how many services released JACK. Couple that with sharp money early on the Jags. We had a situation where "sharp" (syndicate, respected pro bettors) money came in first followed by services and then the public who came in swiftly forcing books to move it.... They needed Balt money to balance their books and as a result moved the line quickly. Value on Baltimore was now present at 4.5-5 because those trends regarding to 6 and 7 point favorites didn't apply. This caused other bet shops to move just as quick or face an onslaught of money on one side.

This wasn't a trap game and there aren't trap lines. There are "bad lines" however but those are few. There is no secret in today's betting world. When people didn't have the internet and only the "oddsmakers" knew who was injured, yes, they had the ability to hang weak lines on purpose... In today's world this isn't so. There are too many "outs" available to the sports bettor.

For the record, most sportsbetting books are flawed, bad and outdated. Statistical analysis, motivation and learning how to make a line/power rating system is the best way to win ... You are fooling yourself if you try to look for a line you suspect might be a "trap".

I have one question for moneymaker ... You state in your bio that you are 36-40 years old. With respect, your syntax isn't consistent with your stated age but let's presume you are telling the truth and are, for example, 40 years old. You state you have "over" 27 years of betting experience ... Are we to believe you have been gambling since you were 13 or younger?

Furthermore, if your bio age is wrong then why would you be lying ..if so, your credibility is already in doubt.

I would rather someone break down a game than come in talking about "traps" or "fixes" either in the line or game.

There are times when a syndicate will leak work of a major bet in order to move a line a point or two to come back on the other side but this isn't a "trap" line, it's simply using one's clout to gain an edge.

Perhaps a reason why the general public loses is because they spend too much time worrying about things not related to the game instead of focusing on the game itself.

Finally, you stated that the first sign that this game was a "trap" was that the line stayed firm almost all week and then abruptly moved on Thursday (gameday). Again, this being the pre-season, the most important factor is playing time for starters and that information is usually confirmed late as I touched on above.

Oh, and your comments about the Sunday night game are laughable. The reason why many pople lose prime time bets because they are ether chasing losses or because they force action on the only game on television.  Lines on the "only" game in town are some the tightest.

Cheers  
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#21
Posted: 8/25/2012 7:07:55 AM
No question prime time games very rarely go to the side the public is on - I smelled this baltimore game to from far away - I call a lot of these type of games myself. - I don't really know why but I do - I guess I look for what's called "HOUSE MONEY" witch team is Vegas on kinda thinking
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#22
Posted: 8/25/2012 9:28:49 AM

VERY VERY WELL SAID FEVER 

and absolutley everything you said is pure truth n knowledge.  I remember my bookie friend who now lives in Vegas would consult the LVSC when he was getting killed on one game to see if moving the line would help him or not.  Luckily he had a friend that worked there and they charged him a minimal fee for advice.  Yeah the old days don't exist anymore.  Can you imagine having an edge if you could take the COVERS website back to 1977 and be the only guy able to use it??  Thats just about as close to fee money as you are gonna get...lol....But yes information is out there much easier now and updated to the very minute.  All it takes now is sound capping, knowledge of  the game and of course money management

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#23
Posted: 8/25/2012 10:41:43 AM
Thanks RazorSharps .... That's the diff ... If any og us bet in the 80's and early 90's ... We knew how tough gettibg any information was.
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#24
Posted: 8/25/2012 10:52:09 AM
Sorry about the syntax in my last post ... Posting from my mobile.
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#25
Posted: 8/25/2012 11:45:11 AM
gl this year
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