Turnover margin in
away games:
They Vs Green Bay -1, they lost, Vs Jacksonville -1, they
won, Vs Tampa Bay -4, they lost, Vs STL
-1 they lost, They played 8 away games, they lost the turnover battle in 4 of
those games, and lost 3 of them. In
those 4 games they had a combined score of 98 to 109 (that includes playing Jacksonville
with their league worst offense)
NOTE: The 49ers have failed to
win a games turnover battle by +1 or better only twice this season: vs Detroit,
and vs Baltimore, and the Saints have a negative season turnover margin of -3.
Last Saints
playoff wins on the road:
0, none, nada, not one in their history.
San Francisco:
Is a run it up the gut, and pass into the flat type of team
(only 7.1 yards per pass). The Saints
have a much better run D, than their pass D.
Look for Harbaugh to use more passes (short passes into the flat) to
offset N.O.’s blitz packages.
San Fran has averaged the NFL’s 8th best yards per rush average,
but they have struggled to run the ball vs top 10 run defenses (vs Dallas 3.1
per carry, vs cincy 1.7 per carry, vs Baltimore 3.5, vs pitt 3.3). New Orlean’s 6th ranked run D will
necessitate San Fran establish a passing game early. San Fran will pass on the vast majority of 1st downs, but we may see a noticeable
increase of passing on 3rd downs as well (to attack N.O.’s weak
passing D, and to offset their blitz’s with short passes into the flat).
Strategies:
Harbaugh is going to establish the short passing game right
away in hopes of making the Saints loosen up their loading of the box. 49ers know they are in trouble if they don’t get
an early lead so they are going to use short passes, passes to the flat, and
draws to make the Saints pay for their over the top blitzes. The 49ers get a lead they will try to slow
the game down and work the clock.
Peyton: He is going
to attempt the run even less than he normally does, but that is going to leave
him vulnerable to the 49ers opportunistic defense. His team is substantially less effective on
real grass, and the fact the Candlestick Park is very close to sea level will
perpetuate the disadvantage of less secure footing that will hurt N.O.
substantially more than it hurts the 49ers.
Should the 49ers get a lead Brees will take more chances than he
normally does.
Intagiables:
·
N.O. has went 9 straight ATS, if they beat the
spread on Saturday, they will be the 3rd team to have a 10, or more game win streak vs
ATS in the last 25 (or more) years. If
the Saints wins vs the spread for the next 3 games, it will be the first time
that was done in 25 years by any team.
·
The Saints have never won a road playoff game…EVER
I have this @ the
SAN FRANCISCO +4 FOR 6.6 UNITS
NEW ORLEANS / SAN FRANCISCO UNDER 47.5 FOR 4.4 UNITS