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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: How the darn do bookies make money?!? ***Mind-boggling stats inside***
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#1
Posted: 12/12/2011 11:52:42 AM

Let me start by saying that I have been gambling since 15 years now. Sports betting, blackjack, Poker, you name it. I eat, sleep, live and breath gambling. Numbers, math and stats are in my blood. I can calculate parlay odds by just looking at the juices and give you the effective weighted average juice per game by looking at the parlay payouts using reverse logarhythmes. Same thing for teasers. But I don't bet teasers. Teasers are a suckers bet like they all say. I mean how often does a game end right within the 7 points range? You might as well parlay your 4 games and take the 12.28 times your bet rather than the 2.5x right?

Now in those 15 years, believe it or not, I am UP sports betting. We all read about how the house always wins and how bookies roll in cash until they get busted by the police.

I on the other hand, had some devastating losing streaks, in fact, had more losing years than winning years. They say you could have profitable week, monthe, years but the house always wins in the long run. I don't know if I was lucky or what but I am up over all by about $60,000. And that includes all the money that I have dumped to the casinos, costs of going to Vegas, etc. So I am up 6-figures betting on sports. All the services the books gave me, all the flights I took to Vegas, all the agonozing beats to end a 5 or 6 team parlay for life changing money and I am still up overall.

Now here is the part where it gets interesting. As a bookie, I am DOWN overall!!! I am not a serious bookie, just a small time bookie, on and off, taking action here and there. Because you know, being on average +110 on every game is a pretty good edge, right? It just boggles my mind how my clients never miss. In fact, you could say that I am an open ATM when it comes to taking action.

Am I doing something wrong? This Sunday my clients went 14-0 against me. That includes straight bets, parlays, teaser, sides, totals. everything. Combine all my betting weeks as a player and I have never lost so much in a day with the exception of laying big after hitting a rare parlay on Saturday. Let's just say, I will never see the money lost this weekend every again.

One of my clients had a 4-game teaser at the 1 o' clock game. They were all pretty much in the bag after the first quarter. Only that 3 of those games were barely covering late in the 4th quarter, while the other team had the ball in each game and needed to convert the following (respectively) for his teaser to miss:

1st and Goal at the 1
3rd and Goal inside the 10
3rd and 1 in FG range

They were all in 4 down territory and I needed at least one in order for my client to miss his teaser. The result was the following (respectively):

Fumble
Interception
Two deep incomplete passes

And to ice the cake, I had taken heavy action on the Giants. Moneyline, teasers, and final leg of a few parlays. We all know how that ended up. One of my guys is now on an 11-0 streak betting on teasers. Another guy is on an 8-0 run that's made up of a 4-team parlay, a 2-team underdog parlay (with the Giants) and another 2-team parlay.

Am I doing something wrong here? Of course, now, Monday morning, each one of my clients want to fully cashout their entire balance without wanting to put a dime on the Monday night game.

My bankroll is devastated. Not to mention that this was also a Sunday where I went 0-5 on my own plays.

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#2
Posted: 12/12/2011 12:08:05 PM
You need atleast 10 peoples action in order for you to win. There is always gonna be a few people that win each week. You need to balance that out with the losers. If you dont have atleast 10 people placing bets with you I would just stop taking them. The more people you have the better odds you have of winning. If you only have 4 people betting with you and two win big you dont have enough people losing to cover it. Or you can try to balance out the bets by pushing off the extra that on one side. If you took 5,000k giants try to move the line to make people bet dallas so the money evens out. 5000k on both sides means  atleast 500 profit for you.
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#3
Posted: 12/12/2011 12:10:13 PM
you're no bookie.  you're you a middleman who takes on small bet here and there and place your bet.  BIG bookies only HOLD.
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#4
Posted: 12/12/2011 12:12:32 PM
just one bad week  in the long run start of season till end house wins  i play texas holdem cash games only i am consider a solid player i am a skilled player i dont gamble to much meaning i dont bet to hit the river  BUT from time to time i lose a large sum to those who play based on LUCK and not much poker skills  BUT in the end i get thier cash why its a LONG term game luck only last so long   vegas who sets lines are the skilled poker players in time they WIN 
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#5
Posted: 12/12/2011 12:12:49 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by dont_bet:

you're no bookie.  you're you a middleman who takes on small bet here and there and place your bet.  BIG bookies only HOLD.

Wow man. Do you have a bigger image of your avatar?

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#6
Posted: 12/22/2011 1:39:03 AM
The point is, I have not yet met, or know anyone who is actually DOWN as a sports bettor. I mean let's face it, we as sports bettors only need to be right 52.3% of the time to break even. Not saying it's automatic, just saying that with the number of games and markets on the board every week, finding a sweet spot that beats this break-even point cannot be that hard. And especially with reduced juices (some books), promotions, bonuses, parlay bonuses, that break-even point is even closer to 50-50.

Even if bookies make money, someone can go crazy and really hurt them. Variance can be a girl (for the bookies).

Here is what I know about sports bettors:

Myself

Been gambling for 15 years, most of these years losing years and was down most of the time. Killed them this year and now UP lifetime. 15 years of service given to me by my sportsbook for no revenue in exchange for them. Everything they made off of me for 15 years (which averaged out to a little less than a poor man's yearly salary) was wiped out in 2011.

Most degen person I have ever known

I can think of one hardcore degenerate back in 2003 who used to lose hundreds of dollars every week (basically his entire paychecks) to a street bookie that I referred him to. He would bet all sorts of parlays at sucker odds (10 to 1 for 4-teamers, 20-to-1 on 5 teamers, etc). Comes the Bowl season, he goes crazy, hits like a God and ends up wiping everything he lost to his bookie except $80. Which I am sure the bookie spent more on gas only to collect all those months. The degen started losing again, went crazy in the Superbowl and won every bet. He ended his run with the bookie in the black. I do not know what happened after.

People I took action from

They are all up. Period. And every single one of them cashed out every friggin penny after a winning weekend. I have not heard from my last client in 2 weeks.. since he won 11 games in a row, and I don't think he is coming back. Even if he is, I will not be taking any more action.

Other than him, I took some action as a bookie on and off, especially in 2003-2006. Had some winning weekends (for myself) but most of them won.

Remember that Superbowl when the Bears played the Colts? My client put $500 on the Colt -7 (he usuall betted $50-100 a game). He also referred several of his friends to me as a prompt bookie. They all layed heavy action on the Colts -7 -120, all from $500 to $1000.

I figured (and hoped) that this is finally the time for the "house always wins" to unfold, for all the times I paid my luckbox clients on time, even when I got beat so bad I had to "tighten the belt" to squeeze funds.

Heston returned the opening kickoff for a TD... looking good.

Indy was up by 5 in the 4th quarter and the Bears were driving. That was it. Either the Bears score something and put the cover away, or they don't and need one stop to put the cover away (score on next possession or not, Indy will not score again).

PICK SIX.

Chicago then had the ball 3 times in "4 down mode" before the end of the game and did not score once.

I get cleaned out. Everyone cashed out every last penny on the next friggin day and I never hear from them again. Why?

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#7
Posted: 12/22/2011 1:55:03 AM
First of all, you need at least 25 to 30 players because some will slow pay & you may have 1 to 3 guys that stiff.

Also, its better to get the college kids, they love to wager on sports no matter what it is & they usually always lose.

I had a friend that booked back when we were in college & he made a ton of money from the college kids, it did help that this college was very expensive & they all came from wealthy families.
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#8
Posted: 12/22/2011 2:14:06 AM
I have been taken action this year and am up huge...

In order to win you have to be a little dirty...

If there is a game that you dont want to take action on you have to not take it...

-I didnt take a Green Bay Bet all year....  when people asked I said "maxed out" as in too many people had taken the side and I couldnt take the action.. I also have done almost every week for Patriots games as well

-If you got a guy hitting totals, try not to take em or tell him the limit is really small... People tend to get hot hitting totals, and it may last for weeks...

-bet against your home town team when "your" public is betting them... When people bet on my Redskins they always fail to cover... 

-For people who you know are casual betters or dont know the difference, give them a line that is 1.5-2 pts aways from where the line is... These pts are HUGE in the NFL...

-If you have too much action on one side, do yourself a favor and place a bet on your online account... Its not worth the risk... Dont let one game make or break your day...

-If you can get guaranteed dough take it... Once again this is the dirty garbage, but some people are just not savvy and you can charge them ridiculous juice...  if they will pay 20 cent juice, go on pinny and make there play for 3-5 cent juice and take the profit if you lose... This work mainly if it is a game where you do not have too much action...

- If a person is on a losing streak, ride em till they die, extend em credit.. and take that big bet they make on the Cowboys... It is risky, but THEY WILL LOSE...

- Lastly, lie... If someone wins 20k tell em you have em winning 18k, pay em and if they dont pick up the error, darn em.... if they do, be a girl about how it is there responsibilty and at the worst just give em a few play... 

I KNOW IT IS DIRTY, but remember you are doing them the favor... It aint easy to bet... 

LAST BUT NOT LEAST...  HAVE A WEEKLY POKER GAME... Its always best to have people settle and then have access to a poker game where you rake 10%... If people have a problem, tell em to darn off... have Pizza and booze and a nice girl to serve em...


GL... It has been working for me big this year... NFL is a GOLD MINE... I have only lost money one week taking bets... and even then I was probably close to even after hosting Monday night poker.  
, and pplease dont judge me... LOL

-
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#9
Posted: 12/22/2011 2:14:50 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

First of all, you need at least 25 to 30 players because some will slow pay & you may have 1 to 3 guys that stiff.

Also, its better to get the college kids, they love to wager on sports no matter what it is & they usually always lose.

I had a friend that booked back when we were in college & he made a ton of money from the college kids, it did help that this college was very expensive & they all came from wealthy families.

never except bets from college kids unless they pay up front or give you a retainer... 
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#10
Posted: 12/22/2011 2:31:51 AM
crazy stuff in this thread
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#11
Posted: 12/22/2011 2:43:44 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AgainstDaConsen:

I have been taken action this year and am up huge...

In order to win you have to be a little dirty...

If there is a game that you dont want to take action on you have to not take it...

-I didnt take a Green Bay Bet all year....  when people asked I said "maxed out" as in too many people had taken the side and I couldnt take the action.. I also have done almost every week for Patriots games as well

-If you got a guy hitting totals, try not to take em or tell him the limit is really small... People tend to get hot hitting totals, and it may last for weeks...

-bet against your home town team when "your" public is betting them... When people bet on my Redskins they always fail to cover... 

-For people who you know are casual betters or dont know the difference, give them a line that is 1.5-2 pts aways from where the line is... These pts are HUGE in the NFL...

-If you have too much action on one side, do yourself a favor and place a bet on your online account... Its not worth the risk... Dont let one game make or break your day...

-If you can get guaranteed dough take it... Once again this is the dirty garbage, but some people are just not savvy and you can charge them ridiculous juice...  if they will pay 20 cent juice, go on pinny and make there play for 3-5 cent juice and take the profit if you lose... This work mainly if it is a game where you do not have too much action...

- If a person is on a losing streak, ride em till they die, extend em credit.. and take that big bet they make on the Cowboys... It is risky, but THEY WILL LOSE...

- Lastly, lie... If someone wins 20k tell em you have em winning 18k, pay em and if they dont pick up the error, darn em.... if they do, be a girl about how it is there responsibilty and at the worst just give em a few play... 

I KNOW IT IS DIRTY, but remember you are doing them the favor... It aint easy to bet... 

LAST BUT NOT LEAST...  HAVE A WEEKLY POKER GAME... Its always best to have people settle and then have access to a poker game where you rake 10%... If people have a problem, tell em to darn off... have Pizza and booze and a nice girl to serve em...


GL... It has been working for me big this year... NFL is a GOLD MINE... I have only lost money one week taking bets... and even then I was probably close to even after hosting Monday night poker.  
, and pplease dont judge me... LOL

-

nice stuff. here's another one. if a guy is up, delay and stall for a week. hopefully they lose some of it back.
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#12
Posted: 12/22/2011 2:48:18 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cutebrute:


nice stuff. here's another one. if a guy is up, delay and stall for a week. hopefully they lose some of it back.

but you gotta know they guy is not savvy... If he is this could backfire on your hard as he is gonna be aggressive that next week and you gotta take all his bets...
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#13
Posted: 12/22/2011 3:15:41 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AgainstDaConsen:

I have been taken action this year and am up huge...

...
 
, and pplease dont judge me... LOL

-


Good friggin read!

You have no idea how much I admire you for all this. But isn't it too much work? I mean taking bets, taking the extra juice, etc is all good but if you have that many players and you're making money, isn't it a risk that you will get busted by the cops?

Plus, isn't the small juice difference peanuts? Even if the bet is risking $600 to win $500 and you make a "risking $575 to win $525", you only make $25.

The other issue that I have is, even when I have 1 or 2 clients, they call/text me at the most random times to place their bets... while I'm eating or with people or with my girl. I have to hurry up and look up the lines on my iPhone before confirming. Imagine if I had 20 players?

Let me go over what you said in your post.

If there is a game that you dont want to take action on you have to not take it...

That's one thing I cannot do. In the business of booking you are selling one product: Hope, Dreams. For people who want to risk what they worked hard to earn to make what they don't want to work for, instead watch it unfold on a playing field. There is no worst feeling for a gambler than not getting action on a game that he was dead right about. My last client won 11 straight, but gave all his "sucker action" to his other bookie only because the other bookie gave him a credit line. So what? He still has to pay it. Imagine if bookies didn't take action on Stanford this year. Or any of the Baylor Overs...

-If you got a guy hitting totals, try not to take em or tell him the limit is really small... People tend to get hot hitting totals, and it may last for weeks...

It's funny this never affected me. Totals are as unpredictable as ever and my players have been losing quite some money in totals. It's true that total streaks can go hot. It's written everywhere, on almost every betting advice sites and even backed with the fact that most books have smaller limits on totals. I just never had the experience.

-bet against your home town team when "your" public is betting them... When people bet on my Redskins they always fail to cover...

I don't know what you mean by that. I agree with the whole "make your home team pay a bigger price". But I do not believe who bets on a game affects the outcome. I also believe being as honest as you can with the lines will keep a client loyal. Some like to bet against the home team as an "insurance" ("If they win I'm happy, if they lose I get paid"), kind of like an emotional hedge.

-For people who you know are casual betters or dont know the difference, give them a line that is 1.5-2 pts aways from where the line is... These pts are HUGE in the NFL...

I can't do that because I always tell me clients to go on X web site to get the lines that I follow. That makes my work a lot easier.

-If you have too much action on one side, do yourself a favor and place a bet on your online account... Its not worth the risk... Dont let one game make or break your day...

Agreed. I do that and if I actually like the other side, I'm actually getting +110 on it without placing a bet :)

-If you can get guaranteed dough take it...

It's usually pennies.
I don't mind sweating out the game at +juice.

- If a person is on a losing streak, ride em till they die, extend em credit.. and take that big bet they make on the Cowboys... It is risky, but THEY WILL LOSE...

Not sure if I agree. The losing streak, the chase, etc is said to be true. But I have witnessed countless times when someone (myself included) chased losses in a form of Martingale and eventually got even. Not that there is anything wrong in letting someone bury themselves, that also increases the risk of getting stiffed. "I am down $2K that I cannot pay back, I am behind on rent and other bills. darn it I am ruined anyways. I'll go 3K on this bet and if I lose, I'll stiff my bookie. What's one more creditor?"

- Lastly, lie... If someone wins 20k tell em you have em winning 18k

Pure dishonest. But in order to protect myself from someone who can say "I took the other side", I always have plays in writing (email or text). So I can't really do that either.

HAVE A WEEKLY POKER GAME...

Too much competition from the mob in my city :-/

delay and stall for a week. hopefully they lose some of it back.

Mathematically, it does not give you an advantage. You are getting a better chance of getting your money back but just as much as losing double. I once stalled a guy after he turned a $50 "deposit" into almost $2K. I had no means to pay him and told him "not to lose his balance until I come back to town with the money". I actually had no intention to pay him that time, since I was broke (one of many times in my life). Sure enough, he went on monkey-tilt degen mode and lost it all on 4 plays!! He cried about me not paying him on time, blah blah blah.
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#14
Posted: 12/22/2011 3:57:52 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AgainstDaConsen:

I have been taken action this year and am up huge...

In order to win you have to be a little dirty...

If there is a game that you dont want to take action on you have to not take it...

-I didnt take a Green Bay Bet all year....  when people asked I said "maxed out" as in too many people had taken the side and I couldnt take the action.. I also have done almost every week for Patriots games as well

-If you got a guy hitting totals, try not to take em or tell him the limit is really small... People tend to get hot hitting totals, and it may last for weeks...

-bet against your home town team when "your" public is betting them... When people bet on my Redskins they always fail to cover... 

-For people who you know are casual betters or dont know the difference, give them a line that is 1.5-2 pts aways from where the line is... These pts are HUGE in the NFL...

-If you have too much action on one side, do yourself a favor and place a bet on your online account... Its not worth the risk... Dont let one game make or break your day...

-If you can get guaranteed dough take it... Once again this is the dirty garbage, but some people are just not savvy and you can charge them ridiculous juice...  if they will pay 20 cent juice, go on pinny and make there play for 3-5 cent juice and take the profit if you lose... This work mainly if it is a game where you do not have too much action...

- If a person is on a losing streak, ride em till they die, extend em credit.. and take that big bet they make on the Cowboys... It is risky, but THEY WILL LOSE...

- Lastly, lie... If someone wins 20k tell em you have em winning 18k, pay em and if they dont pick up the error, darn em.... if they do, be a girl about how it is there responsibilty and at the worst just give em a few play... 

I KNOW IT IS DIRTY, but remember you are doing them the favor... It aint easy to bet... 

LAST BUT NOT LEAST...  HAVE A WEEKLY POKER GAME... Its always best to have people settle and then have access to a poker game where you rake 10%... If people have a problem, tell em to darn off... have Pizza and booze and a nice girl to serve em...


GL... It has been working for me big this year... NFL is a GOLD MINE... I have only lost money one week taking bets... and even then I was probably close to even after hosting Monday night poker.  
, and pplease dont judge me... LOL

-

Ray, is that you? You dirty motherf*&%^er I knew you were friggin me around.

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#15
Posted: 12/22/2011 4:47:30 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AgainstDaConsen:

I have been taken action this year and am up huge...

In order to win you have to be a little dirty...

If there is a game that you dont want to take action on you have to not take it...

-I didnt take a Green Bay Bet all year....  when people asked I said "maxed out" as in too many people had taken the side and I couldnt take the action.. I also have done almost every week for Patriots games as well

-If you got a guy hitting totals, try not to take em or tell him the limit is really small... People tend to get hot hitting totals, and it may last for weeks...

-bet against your home town team when "your" public is betting them... When people bet on my Redskins they always fail to cover... 

-For people who you know are casual betters or dont know the difference, give them a line that is 1.5-2 pts aways from where the line is... These pts are HUGE in the NFL...

-If you have too much action on one side, do yourself a favor and place a bet on your online account... Its not worth the risk... Dont let one game make or break your day...

-If you can get guaranteed dough take it... Once again this is the dirty garbage, but some people are just not savvy and you can charge them ridiculous juice...  if they will pay 20 cent juice, go on pinny and make there play for 3-5 cent juice and take the profit if you lose... This work mainly if it is a game where you do not have too much action...

- If a person is on a losing streak, ride em till they die, extend em credit.. and take that big bet they make on the Cowboys... It is risky, but THEY WILL LOSE...

- Lastly, lie... If someone wins 20k tell em you have em winning 18k, pay em and if they dont pick up the error, darn em.... if they do, be a girl about how it is there responsibilty and at the worst just give em a few play... 

I KNOW IT IS DIRTY, but remember you are doing them the favor... It aint easy to bet... 

LAST BUT NOT LEAST...  HAVE A WEEKLY POKER GAME... Its always best to have people settle and then have access to a poker game where you rake 10%... If people have a problem, tell em to darn off... have Pizza and booze and a nice girl to serve em...


GL... It has been working for me big this year... NFL is a GOLD MINE... I have only lost money one week taking bets... and even then I was probably close to even after hosting Monday night poker.  
, and pplease dont judge me... LOL

-


kinda hope u get stabbed :/
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#16
Posted: 12/22/2011 5:13:06 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AgainstDaConsen:

I have been taken action this year and am up huge...

In order to win you have to be a little dirty...

If there is a game that you dont want to take action on you have to not take it...

-I didnt take a Green Bay Bet all year....  when people asked I said "maxed out" as in too many people had taken the side and I couldnt take the action.. I also have done almost every week for Patriots games as well

-If you got a guy hitting totals, try not to take em or tell him the limit is really small... People tend to get hot hitting totals, and it may last for weeks...

-bet against your home town team when "your" public is betting them... When people bet on my Redskins they always fail to cover... 

-For people who you know are casual betters or dont know the difference, give them a line that is 1.5-2 pts aways from where the line is... These pts are HUGE in the NFL...

-If you have too much action on one side, do yourself a favor and place a bet on your online account... Its not worth the risk... Dont let one game make or break your day...

-If you can get guaranteed dough take it... Once again this is the dirty garbage, but some people are just not savvy and you can charge them ridiculous juice...  if they will pay 20 cent juice, go on pinny and make there play for 3-5 cent juice and take the profit if you lose... This work mainly if it is a game where you do not have too much action...

- If a person is on a losing streak, ride em till they die, extend em credit.. and take that big bet they make on the Cowboys... It is risky, but THEY WILL LOSE...

- Lastly, lie... If someone wins 20k tell em you have em winning 18k, pay em and if they dont pick up the error, darn em.... if they do, be a girl about how it is there responsibilty and at the worst just give em a few play... 

I KNOW IT IS DIRTY, but remember you are doing them the favor... It aint easy to bet... 

LAST BUT NOT LEAST...  HAVE A WEEKLY POKER GAME... Its always best to have people settle and then have access to a poker game where you rake 10%... If people have a problem, tell em to darn off... have Pizza and booze and a nice girl to serve em...


GL... It has been working for me big this year... NFL is a GOLD MINE... I have only lost money one week taking bets... and even then I was probably close to even after hosting Monday night poker.  
, and pplease dont judge me... LOL

-


U are scum and I hope u have a bad Holidays...
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#17
Posted: 12/22/2011 5:36:06 AM

You will darn with the wrong person and trust me when I say this guy, you will get hurt very bad soon enough.

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nfl_brosuf
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#18
Posted: 12/22/2011 5:37:44 AM
i like this thread..

no wonder my locals be looking and smiling at me as I enter his illegal grocery store to place my bets...

If his juice is not in my favor, I shoot my online account..


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LazVegaz
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#19
Posted: 12/22/2011 5:53:43 AM
He's a business man, and businesses are for making money.


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#20
Posted: 12/22/2011 5:55:22 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dont_bet:

you're no bookie.  you're you a middleman who takes on small bet here and there and place your bet.  BIG bookies only HOLD.
u got that right !
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#21
Posted: 12/22/2011 6:07:17 AM
Fantasy Bookie 101.....
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#22
Posted: 12/22/2011 8:13:24 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AgainstDaConsen:

I have been taken action this year and am up huge...

In order to win you have to be a little dirty...

, and pplease dont judge me... LOL

-

Only an idiot would deal with scum like this.  Glad you found  some willing idiots.  Congratulations dirtbag. Hope your idiots get really stupid lucky despite your buggering and clean your clock.  Someone will.  Karma baby.  Don't judge me for thinking you are a total a-hole.

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#23
Posted: 12/22/2011 10:13:02 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by karkeith:

Ray, is that you? You dirty motherf*&%^er I knew you were friggin me around.





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#24
Posted: 12/22/2011 10:19:15 AM
bookies always win- keep the course
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#25
Posted: 12/22/2011 11:23:09 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by eddothebook:





delay and stall for a week. hopefully they lose some of it back.



yep...i got bit by this one my first year gambling...was up 11K going into bowl season...max. unit bet was 2  ($200)...so i was rocking it...my guy was like "i can only get you a dime this week" and the same the week after and after...i got rocked in the Bowls and nfl playoffs and walked away w/ 3K on the both seasons...better than losing but i should have lost just a little here and there to keep him hoping  and got my pay over the course of weeks at a dime or whatever he "could dig up"...oh well...live and learn

@Against...yep...you are a dirtbag...what goes around comes around...not judging. but it's a fact...glad my guy is at least legit...guess you have a bunch of dumb Canadians to take advantage of...good for you.
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