Messages

Forum Index : Website Promotions : Messages Page 5 of 12 «  3 4 5 6 7   »
Author: [Website Promotions] Topic: WEEK 9 - NFL Breakdown Sheets
googotts send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
googotts
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 480
Location: Illinois
#101
Posted: 11/1/2012 1:54:32 PM
Si1ly, I like the Chicago play BUT do you think they will come ready to play since they looked like garbage the first 3 1/2 qtrs last Sunday against a 1-5 team? Also, doesn't Hasselback play well against them I think he's like 4-1 against bears.
quote
si1ly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
si1ly
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 12061
Location: Florida
#102
Posted: 11/1/2012 1:55:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by statsman49:

On the same wavelengths as you this week did my lines tonight and printed off your breakdown sheets to mull over.. Similiar leans i have are

Denver -5.5
Chicago -7
Houston -15.5
Tampa Bay -2.5
Washington -5
Atlanta -7 (raw model came out as -9!!) but something about that game isnt sitting right with me so i dont think i will play...

Definately with you on Denver Chicago and i think il play houston, others will be gameday decisions..

Anyway keep up the good work love the sheets each week

One of the tests I do with my raw model outputs is I compare them to a game simulation that predicts the total amount of yards a team will get (using the offensive/defensive RPI method).  This way, I can get a read on how much of the output is generated by pure advantages on offense or defense, and how much of it is dependent upon red zone conversion rates, defensive/special teams touchdowns, overall efficiency and other variables that tend to be more random and consequently less easier to mathematically predict.

When you perform this test on the Denver, Chicago and Houston games, you see that those three teams are not only expected to score more efficiency (i.e takes fewer yards to get a point), but they also are expected to gain more yards too.  

When you perform this test on Tampa and Washington, you see that these games are pretty even in terms of offensive/defensive match-ups.  Both teams will be able to move the ball with the same effectiveness on each other.  So who wins?  Well, the team that gets the lucky break (the red zone fumble, the punt return, the pick 6...whatever it may be).  Or the team that simply produces more touchdowns than field goals.  You can guesstimate these variables by looking at yards/point efficiency numbers, red zone conversion percentages, special teams return yards, fumble rates, interception rates...  but you can never really predict these things.

I try and avoid games that lead down this second path.  I don't want  to have to guess right which team will have an easier time turning yards gained into points.  If I'm investing in a team - especially a favorite - I want to know that they're not only expected to be more efficient at scoring, but that they're going to flat out gain their opponent too.  This increases the margin of error significantly and helps avoid betting games that you don't have as much control over as you might think.
quote
elodge713 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
elodge713
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 262
Location: Texas
#103
Posted: 11/1/2012 1:56:32 PM
Silly what's the play for tonight?
quote
si1ly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
si1ly
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 12061
Location: Florida
#104
Posted: 11/1/2012 2:04:53 PM
In the Steelers @ Giants game in fact, my models suggest that the Giants should be heavy favorites over the Steelers.  But wait, Pittsburgh's actually projected to out gain New York by 33 yards!  So why the big discrepancy in projected point spread?  Well it's expected to take Pittsburgh 19 yards to score a point, while only 11 for the Giants.  Whether it will play out like this in the game is a whole different story.  But I'm not likely to risk money on a favorite banking on the fact that their offense has to be almost twice as efficient to cover the spread.  When you put it that way it almost seems like a stupid bet - despite the mathematically perceived line value.  Is your head spinning yet?

quote
babyross send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
babyross
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 7
Location:
#105
Posted: 11/1/2012 2:49:16 PM
If you don't mind me asking, when are you going to start a thread for NBA??
Love your picks on MLB and NFL, would like some on NBA too!! 

Already locked in Den, and Chicago! BOL
quote
Michael3131 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Michael3131
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 27
Location:
#106
Posted: 11/1/2012 2:57:56 PM
Good question babyross. BOL this weekend!
quote
si1ly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
si1ly
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 12061
Location: Florida
#107
Posted: 11/1/2012 2:59:22 PM
Takes at least a month to generate enough data to start projecting games in the NBA.  But I already have well developed models and sheets so it's as simple as waiting until the data collects and then I'll start publishing what I produce daily.  The NBA season is long.. no need to rush into making any wagers this time of year.
quote
xanthax send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
xanthax
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 263
Location:
#108
Posted: 11/1/2012 3:11:12 PM
Why all the love for Chicago. Did you watch the game last week. The panthers are garbage team and almost gave it to them. Chi may win the game, but they don't cover 7 points.......
quote
topshow send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
topshow
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 408
Location: United Kingdom
#109
Posted: 11/1/2012 3:17:00 PM
why oh why do people look at last weeks performance as a guide to what happens this week smh. theres a reason why new casinos get built in vegas on a regular basis
quote
davopnz send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
davopnz
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 6686
Location: New Zealand
#110
Posted: 11/1/2012 3:23:15 PM
backing san diego? i think they're a great bet
quote
si1ly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
si1ly
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 12061
Location: Florida
#111
Posted: 11/1/2012 3:37:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by davopnz:

backing san diego? i think they're a great bet

I don't know yet.  I project the Chiefs to have some success running the ball tonight.  They should be able to out gain SD in yards per carry and total rushing yards.  If they do this, that could make covering a double digit spread difficult.  I think it's SD or nothing in this game, but I'm leaning nothing at the moment.
quote
si1ly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
si1ly
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 12061
Location: Florida
#112
Posted: 11/1/2012 4:05:49 PM
Something to think about.  Norv Turner might get fired before the end of this week if the Chargers lose tonight to Kansas City.  How does the SD locker room feel about their coach?

quote
Show_Stoppa send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Show_Stoppa
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 485
Location: Quebec
#113
Posted: 11/1/2012 4:14:32 PM
Uh oh...
quote
terpnskins send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
terpnskins
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 274
Location:
#114
Posted: 11/1/2012 4:16:48 PM
Silly you think I should pick SD for my survivor pick?
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
zizou_100 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
zizou_100
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: May 2009
Posts: 1167
Location: Vatican City
#115
Posted: 11/1/2012 4:16:55 PM
thx!!!
quote
BigLick08 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
BigLick08
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 323
Location: Colorado
#116
Posted: 11/1/2012 4:18:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


I don't know yet.  I project the Chiefs to have some success running the ball tonight.  They should be able to out gain SD in yards per carry and total rushing yards.  If they do this, that could make covering a double digit spread difficult.  I think it's SD or nothing in this game, but I'm leaning nothing at the moment.

Good stuff. I've found betting 1Q for home team when home team is favored by seven points or more. Would love to have someone run a model to see winning percentage based on this theory.

I was going to put a bet on SD, 1Q but reading that KC can run on them makes me put a break on this bet. I did put in a parlay:

NFL
NFL
NFL
NFL
NFL
NFL
NFL
PARLAY (7 TEAMS)
[302] SD CHARGERS -320
[415] DEN BRONCOS -2½-150 (B+1)
[421] BAL RAVENS -190
[422] TOTAL u42-110 
(BAL RAVENS vrs CLE BROWNS)
[427] DET LIONS -3-140 (B+1)
[429] CHI BEARS -2½-145 (B+½)
[435] PIT STEELERS +160

What you do think Si1ly?

100 / 4700
quote
TurnstoneMoney send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
TurnstoneMoney
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 2096
Location: New York
#117
Posted: 11/1/2012 4:24:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:

Something to think about.  Norv Turner might get fired before the end of this week if the Chargers lose tonight to Kansas City.  How does the SD locker room feel about their coach?


How much do they like losing? Because that's all Norv has done for these dues.

-9 seems awfully high for a team coached by Turner in the primetime.
quote
davopnz send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
davopnz
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 6686
Location: New Zealand
#118
Posted: 11/1/2012 4:34:32 PM
jamaal charles might have success if romeo gave him the ballm more than 4 times....this is the chiefs, the worst team in football, on the road.
quote
si1ly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
si1ly
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 12061
Location: Florida
#119
Posted: 11/1/2012 4:35:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by terpnskins:

Silly you think I should pick SD for my survivor pick?

The more I think about this game, the more I think Kansas City can upset them.  Regardless of what the numbers say for the Chargers, I'm finding it increasingly more difficult to recommend any sort of play on them.
quote
si1ly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
si1ly
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 12061
Location: Florida
#120
Posted: 11/1/2012 4:39:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by davopnz:

jamaal charles might have success if romeo gave him the ballm more than 4 times....this is the chiefs, the worst team in football, on the road.

I'm projecting Charles to average 4.2 yards per carry tonight.  Since he saw so little work last week, I'm expecting him to be fresh for this game - making his upside even greater.  They average 32 rushing attempts per game - which would give them 134 yards on the ground tonight.
quote
ruderunner send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
ruderunner
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 374
Location:
#121
Posted: 11/1/2012 4:50:31 PM

Silly,

 

I may lay off SD for the survivor pool....

 

I am very nervous that KC has nothing to lose and outgained SD last game and had 6 turnovers to boot.

 

Now do I make a play on KC plus the points?

 

 

quote
davopnz send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
davopnz
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 6686
Location: New Zealand
#122
Posted: 11/1/2012 4:51:25 PM
i personally think you're overthinking it, kansas city is absolutely terrible, just shocking, words cannot describe the disgusting brand of football they play.

san diego while not flash are still a good team i mean look at what they did against the saints and broncos, they played well and choked. norv will have them extra focused tonight against a team faaaaar worse than the saints and the broncos.
quote
davopnz send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
davopnz
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 6686
Location: New Zealand
#123
Posted: 11/1/2012 4:55:59 PM
not to mention everyone here is on KC, which is not a good thing.
quote
cardifkill
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Sportsbook.ag |
cardifkill
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 2574
Location: California
#124
Posted: 11/1/2012 5:10:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:

Something to think about.  Norv Turner might get fired before the end of this week if the Chargers lose tonight to Kansas City.  How does the SD locker room feel about their coach?



It is more of the players if you asked me. The offensive line is a joke. I don't think the players are worried about Norv or any bandwagon Charger fans.

quote
KC4U2ENVY send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
KC4U2ENVY
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 303
Location:
#125
Posted: 11/1/2012 5:13:44 PM
Hey guys,

Just a quick side note, SD is a big time passing team, last weak the game had very high winds, they had to run the ball more, today they are home and KC is just HORRIBLE! SD will cover the spread tonight. go with the fav tonight on the spread, ANNIHILATION
quote
Forum Index : Website Promotions : Messages Page 5 of 12 «  3 4 5 6 7   »
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.