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Author: [Boxing] Topic: What would the odds be if Mayweather and Pacquiao fought???
MoneyShot send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#1
Posted: 11/17/2011 5:48:18 PM
??
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#2
Posted: 11/17/2011 6:16:08 PM
floyd -150
pac +110
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#3
Posted: 11/17/2011 6:27:01 PM
it was -125 mayweather when they were actually scheduled to fight I'd imagine now it would increase to -175
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#4
Posted: 11/17/2011 6:57:19 PM
I think floyd would be close to a 4 to 1 favorite. this fight is a mismatch. if pacquiao found marquez hard to hit in his last fight, who in reality is not that good of a defensive fighter, technically he is good in terms of offence, but if you watch his fights, he gets hit a lot, in floyd we are talking about one of the greatest defensive fighters ever, who is much faster, much stronger and light years a head of marquez in terms of defensive ability, in terms of boxing intelligence floyd is as smart as they come, I will bet every dime that I have  on floyd in this one, this one will be very similar to mayweather vs corrales,  trust me on this one.  as everyone knows styles make fights and this is the WORST style match up that pacquiao could possibly have, I see freddy roach waving the white flag somewhere during the later rounds.
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#5
Posted: 11/17/2011 8:12:14 PM
And yet Mayflower is so reluctant to make the fight.
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#6
Posted: 11/17/2011 9:01:29 PM
why is floyd reluctant? all he wanted is a drug test, manny said no, he turned down 40 to 50 million, because he did not want to take a drug test, do you know that 5 fighters from freddy roaches gym have tested positive for illegal substances over the last 3 years,floyd openly says that if their is a drug test he will fight, when have you ever heard pacquiao say he wants floyd? he says  I am the fighter, I let bob arum take care of who I fight,  so why is it floyd who is ducking? anyways I have inside info on this one and it will happen drug test or not.  if anything it's manny who is ducking not the other way around. also  forget what the mainstream media says, they dis like floyd, because he is a arrogant prick outside the ring and manny is the good guy, so people automatically side with pacquiao. forget their personalities, floyd is superior and when they fight he will show it. you can bet on it, I sure as hell will.
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#7
Posted: 11/18/2011 3:17:49 AM
About a week ago Station Casinos had it pick em at -110...I'm kicking myself for not jumping all over that line for Mayweather cause I'm sure we'll never see that again unless the public perception drastically changes for Pacquiao.
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#8
Posted: 11/18/2011 10:42:31 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Las_Vegas_Asian:

About a week ago Station Casinos had it pick em at -110...I'm kicking myself for not jumping all over that line for Mayweather cause I'm sure we'll never see that again unless the public perception drastically changes for Pacquiao.


Big miss
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#9
Posted: 11/18/2011 10:48:22 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by EricLinny:

floyd -150
pac +110


I think it'll be right around here but Pacquiao fans will drive the price down come fight time.
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#10
Posted: 11/18/2011 5:16:49 PM
The Soulpurpose is easily one of the smartest boxing posters on this forum.

Floyd Mayweather is easy
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#11
Posted: 11/18/2011 5:29:05 PM
   A realistic line and a public line are very different. Also, those handicappers that think NFL linesmakers are always trying to get an even amount on both sides is incorrect. Yes it is an automatic win, but they also have a few games that the line seems to be an overlay but in reality it is s "sucker bet". This is called cushioning, and a gamblers who bets against the sucker bets all year will win, but you have to bite your teeth and go against all reason and look at the past 30 years of results.
   After Marquez-Pacquiao III, the line will move due to the performance and outcome. Mayweather will open -130 to -170, after that you will get a fluctuation within a week before the fight. You will have many Floyd haters betting late on Manny, but many people betting Floyd waiting for the odds to go up.
   I wouldn't being overly concerned with odds as large action on both will be happening. As far Sation Casino (and others making Manny -110 pickem, this is advertising for the Casino and nothing more). You will get around 3/2 or (-135 middle baseline) making Floyd -150, Manny +120... the gap will be significant for $100 win bet with odds under -200, as they can do this and get away with it without losing action because everyone wants to bet the fight of the Century! (lol)
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#12
Posted: 11/18/2011 9:51:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by EricLinny:

floyd -150
pac +110


I was just at Red Rock Station today and they had Mayweather -150 Pac +130. I bet $1500 on Floyd, was gonna bet more but I just hate tying up my money for that many months for a fight that may never happen.
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#13
Posted: 11/18/2011 9:58:04 PM
That is a major factor. Most sportsbooks new for years that Matweather vs Pacquiao would never happen but posted future odds around Mayweather -130 Pacquiao +110 that expired 12/31/**. "**" meant that year. This was a huge item for sportsbooks as they had people's money tied up giving them extra capital and also the advantage if they went out of business. It's like a bank but you receive no interest and can't get an early return!!!
Damn, not that it was hard but my -150 was pinpoint. Notice the juice is an extra 10 cents more than normal because people don't care when it's a mega-fight. I felt they might get overly greedy and go for 20 cents extra, but I'm sure sportsbooks will as they receive money on Mayweather they will just decrease Pacquiao odds this way they don't push away any on the fence bettors.
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#14
Posted: 11/19/2011 12:44:09 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ZOUK:

Damn, not that it was hard but my -150 was pinpoint. Notice the juice is an extra 10 cents more than normal because people don't care when it's a mega-fight. I felt they might get overly greedy and go for 20 cents extra, but I'm sure sportsbooks will as they receive money on Mayweather they will just decrease Pacquiao odds this way they don't push away any on the fence bettors.


Good call Zouk!!!
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#15
Posted: 11/23/2011 10:04:29 PM
Floyd Mayweather +126 on pinny.
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#16
Posted: 11/24/2011 1:39:26 AM
QUOTELas_Vegas_Asian: Thanks! After suffering enough through boxing corruption it's a sport I enjoy the most as a participant or a viewer. The many years with friends who made lines for sportsbooks (Pinnacle, and many smaller name outfits), I learned to make NFL lines which were very easy (only because they are so accurate and the previously fallen dynasty teams still were always worth an extra 1 to 2 points, as was any home favorite on a night game).
    I was 14 and remember Tuesday mornings after my father got the newspaper he would quiz me on the lines. Back then I got to watch all the NY teams (Buffalo, Jets & Giants) as you didn't have youtube in the 1980's. The nice thing was teams didn't switch every year with free agency, franchise player claims, etc... and the set offensives they ran were standard and it was rare to change. They maybe did 2 or 3 "risky plays" (which are now standard, and even the most conservative teams change) like a flea flicker.
    I kept up with stats using "College & Pro Football Weekly" but that was a few years later. After week four or so my father opened the sports section and read me the match-ups and without doing a thorough breakdown I used heuristics from my memory. Many times when they didn't have a line back then it was mainly if the QB was questionable, but that was it. For 2/3s of the games I was at most 1.5 points off. Now for 1/6 of other games I would be within 2.5 points. Now for 2 game I might be off, many times it was PK and I felt a team was 1 point favorites and they might be 2.5 point dogs.
    The best part was the one game I was always WAY OFF. I remember thesoulpurpose talking about the sucker bet and it was true. You would often get 1 game in NFL that a team should be 10 point favorite but the line showed them maybe 4 to 6 points. Now, almost every person went for it but I was told to be disciplined because when I make a line and it is that far off, lines makers have access to every piece of information and they knew something important I didn't. It was so hard to go against what you felt was a lock, but you either had to stay away or make the play. Those games as you know were 85% or so accurate (many times the dog won outright). Below is my post from above.
Originally Posted by ZOUK:

  
A realistic line and a public line are very different. Also, those handicappers that think NFL linesmakers are always trying to get an even amount on both sides is incorrect. Yes it is an automatic win, but they also have a few games that the line seems to be an overlay but in reality it is s "sucker bet". This is called cushioning, and a gamblers who bets against the sucker bets all year will win, but you have to bite your teeth and go against all reason and look at the past 30 years of results.   


   I also noticed that teams that had won recent multiple superbowls always had an extra point or two added as bettors failed to realize that the team two years prior is not the same anymore. Popular teams playing night games at home were also jacked up lines. Today the Patriots lines are always a few points higher than what a true line would be for the fact it would help even out the betting, but 60% of the money would be on Patriots regardless of a bad line.
   As a young teenager this was good training as I learned some insight into how and why the lines are made and set. I had to learn bankroll management, staying away from parlays, and most importantly it didn't take long to notice that the NFL made lines that were more accurate than any other sport (event). I've yet to meet a very successful NFL bettors that has been consistent with accurate plays, betting larger units on better value, and a long term winner monetarily. I know guys that have been beating 52.38% (break-even on -110 or 4.54% juice) but lose overall, or guys that win big bets but lose playing parlays or teasers, etc. Even the best handicapper has leaks (common term for poker players that do well winning consistently but lose on horses, sports, etc...).
    BACK TO BOXING (lol)- It was Aaron Pryor vs Alexis Arg├╝ello (RIP) in 1982 was my first boxing fight I watched with total concentration... I was only 8 years old, but I was hooked! I got involved in contact sports (martial arts, kick boxing, boxing) from 12 onward. It was 1985 and a local channel was broadcasting Tyson's fights that were in Albany. I still was only eleven and had a great deal to learn, but my eye for skill and talent was always a gift. Watching him once (not knowing boxing politics or rankings) I said why don't they let this guy fight whoever is the best his next fight and after he KO's them, everyone will know who the best is now! It only took a year, but for a kid that feels like forever.
    My apologies to many that don't care for the long posts I write, but that was my primer for sports betting and boxing.
    Currently I haven't kept up with many MMA fighters, so I have limited just to boxing again. I also do NCAAMB during conference play (this is mainly because you can use previous years with teams still intact and the box scores give you great depth into handicapping). For me not even watching any college hoop games and betting mid-to-late conference (Jan-Feb) and using box scores I do quite well. Handicappers of thoroughbreds use the Daily Racing Form as a bible (but watching a race can tell you more as if a horse was bumped early, it might not say). Using box scores and making my lines, I look for certain criteria, then I assess it through several  Matrices, a weighted ranking system and a utility tree. The NBA is tricky as players don't play as hard as college athletes, so it's hard to know if they had an off game, were tired from road travel, or were behind that they didn't care. Although I don't bet NFL (maybe props that overlay), every game is essential to win or even gain confidence. One thing, I do believe you can beat basketball and I can list the reasons and will in a different post why. I think NBA totals are better to bet than sides, because the acute handicapper can assess the game and range it well,... and doesn't have to lose to meaningless layup with no defense.
    I won't wager and have money tied up for a year again... I did before but I bet the fight wouldn't happen before 12/31/20XX... so I was getting WIN or LOSS and not a wager return. GL to all that do!

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#17
Posted: 12/1/2011 12:54:56 AM
soulpurpose you may think you know what your talking about...but you really dont....how is it a huge mismatch for manny? lol....their speed is the same if not manny with an advantage...power the same...footwork clearly in favor of manny....you people think floyd will just bang bang bang and itll be over....if this fight ever happened....the real pound for pound champ (manny) will step up n show what hes made of...instead of backing up and shoulder rolling all day like floyd...how comfortable will floyd be if manny keeps throwing 5-6 punch combos....and WHAT IF manny were to knock down floyd...do u know the change of momentum that would bring for manny in the biggest fight of his life? im sorry but this guy is all for his country and floyd is all about the money and only about the money...if he loses his state of mind would be..o ok i made 100 mill. its whatever....dont get me wrong floyd is one of the best fighters in the world...but i would def have to put manny right on top of him...ALSO....mannys strength/conditioning/workout lengths are too extreme for floyd....fuckin guy trains as if he were gonna be fighting 25 round fights. 75% Manny by decision 25% chance Manny by KO....0% FLOYD TO WIN













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#18
Posted: 12/1/2011 3:55:42 AM
- their speed is the same if not manny with an advantage
~ Floyd is a master at adjusting and anticipating. Manny showed he couldn't adjust to Marquez for even one impressive round.

-power the same
~ I'm sure they both hit hard enough, so it comes down to the cleaner shots, Floyd

- footwork clearly in favor of manny
~ Explain that? Floyd has had great footwork as an amateur while Manny just learned to get good the past 5 years. Just because Manny does plenty of bouncing it doesn't mean it's good. Again, he bounced and Marquez timed him for twelve rounds.

- you people think floyd will just bang bang bang and itll be over
~ Not at all. You will see Floyd adjust and Manny try and pick-up the tempo.

- how comfortable will floyd be if manny keeps throwing 5-6 punch combos
~ It's irrelevant if they miss and you best believe if Floyd counters constantly Manny won't be throwing combos

- WHAT IF manny were to knock down floyd, do u know the change of momentum that would bring for manny in the biggest fight of his life?
~ This is not a team sport with college athletes that get psyched out. Mayweather has great ring composure. After Mosley wacked him around in round two, Floyd adjusted and won every round.

- mannys strength/conditioning/workout lengths are too extreme for floyd....fuckin guy trains as if he were gonna be fighting 25 round fights
~ That would be relevant if they fought 25 rounds, but they don't. Training harder doesn't mean training smarter, and you can only train so hard to increase your chances. Marquez has done workouts most fighters wouldn't (and couldn't do) for a major payday. Floyd is not a slouch and I've yet to seem him winded.
___________________________________________________

With that said, I've picked on Floyd as he hasn't fought the very best. If I felt my fighter couldn't beat a certain fighter, I wouldn't have them fight. Take Horse Racing, a good trainer places the horse in the correct class where he will be the favorite most times and win. Floyd has the ability to beat (or have beaten) anyone, but chose to fight big names with less chance then fighters with a better chance.
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#19
Posted: 12/1/2011 10:23:34 AM
its irrelevant if they miss...your right...but manny has got some pretty serious accuracy....people are looking at this marquez fight like his careers over now...noone knows how floyd will react when in the ring with manny...still in my opinion this fight wont happen...floyd too scared to give up the 0 losses...wouldnt you be? all manny wants to do is help is country n this win would be HUGE for him and the Philippines....still dont think pac lets his country down no matter who the opponent is......and marquez didnt time garbage lol....he got lucky with some nice punches....ya gotta knock him down if  you want the victory....guy just gave up fighting....what a dumbass








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#20
Posted: 12/1/2011 11:40:32 AM
We have a few things we both agree on. I stated to people years ago that this fight wouldn't happen. Yes, I believe Floyd doesn't want to blemish his undefeated record. He has stayed away from many other weaker opponents than Manny.
At his prime age of 27 Mayweather's past 10 opponents were:
Victor Ortiz 24 (quit vs Maidana;beat overrated Berto;out-classed)
Shane Mosley 38 (past prime;prior he had 4 long tough fights )
Juan Manuel Marquez 36 (past prime;fight weight was to high)   
Ricky Hatton 29 (good fighter;not a true welterweight)
Oscar De La Hoya 34 (past prime;wasn't great outside lightweight)
Carlos Manuel Baldomir 35 (past prime;decent fighter)
Zab Judah 28 (under-achiever, never beat a very good fighter)
Sharmba Mitchell 35 (journeyman just above average)
Arturo Gatti 33 (warrior but lacked any speed)
Henry Bruseles 24 (nc)

Here is a list of ten popular fighters (at some point in their careers) that could have been considered as opponents and Floyd should have fought at least one of them, and also Manny on top.
Manny Pacquiao (Simple:He wanted no part of Manny)
Miguel Cotto (Cotto is mentally tough as they come)
Antonion Margarito (Tall, great stamina and relentless)
Sergio Mora (To much uncertainty)
Paul Williams (Tall, good hand speed and stamina and relentless)
Sergio Martinez (Fast, strong and great stamina)
Winky Wright (Great technician and causes problems for most fighters)
Joshua Clottey (Another physical & mental tough fighter)
Amir Khan (Great fighter and fast)
Andre Berto (Fast hands and combinations)
Vernon Forrest (RIP: Tall and Fast)
Floyd doesn't fight tall opponents so that eliminates three.
We know Floyd vs Manny would be all-time revenues easy (especially PPV revenues), now we are down four. Fighting Winky (one of the most ducked fighters of the 21st Century because of his southpaw stance and brilliant defensive) or Sergio he would be 3" shorter and physically smaller, so now we have six.
Khan has shown great potential and few weak spots and has great speed also... seven.
Berto I stated for along time lacks real power although he punches fast and clean and uses body leverage. His style with quick short punches is what Floyd doesn't want because it forces him into a brawl more than a boxing match, and even with advantages he won't fight that fight...eight.
Fighting Clottey or Mora wouldn't generate much interest and they'd have to put on 24/7 everyday. As far as match-ups Mora would be unconventional and not his risk-reward fight selection process. Now Clottey he could fight but he knows the strength of Clottey and not being as offensive as Manny he would look less than super against an unknown to the general public. Now we are at ten.
Cotto was perfect for him because Floyd was bigger back then (now same build), has 5" reach advantage, is faster with better reflexes and anticipation, as well as adjustments and punching power. I could go on, but here was a fighter he knew he had every advantage physically, mentally (Cotto is mentally tough regardless of what people say against Margarito; I'm certain most fighters would quit against someone using brass knuckles; that was a situation in which you knew what forum posters never boxed as they would understand) and experience. Before Margarito, Cotto had become a known name as an accomplished undefeated fighter that just beat Sugar Shane (again, the general public wouldn't remember how close that fight was to being a draw; 90% PPV revenues are from the general fan who watches a few fights a year). That fight would have been great promotional and a total mismatch. That's the list. More fighters were available I was just using those as an example.
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#21
Posted: 12/1/2011 11:56:20 AM
Regarding Marquez... he apparently was lucky every round. Sugar Ray Leonard didn't knock down Hagler and won (mainly because they knew if Sugar lost he might retire again; but they felt if Hagler lost he would want rematch and avenge his loss but they were wrong). If Manny lost the decision to Marquez, the Floyd match-up would have lost major revenues... maybe 40 million or more. Marquez didn't stop fighting, he just didn't trade punches because at that weight he knew Manny was much stronger. After their second fight Manny's face was all beat-up and before the decision he said "No more with this guy." They thought the catch-weight would give Manny a chance to walk through him, but Marquez is one the greatest ring technicians.
   Morales beat-up Manny in their first match when Manny fought with one hand (one punch) and bad footwork. People thought when Floyd came back from retirement that after he beat Marquez, he gave Marquez high praise and people thought he was doing that to make his performance rate better. He said even though he knocked down Marquez, he realized he didn't want to try and KO Marquez and leave himself exposed, so he out boxed Marquez for the rest of the fight.
  
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#22
Posted: 12/1/2011 12:12:19 PM
hmmm someone copied and pasted and ruined this thread.. cant read a lot of what u guys wrote..
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#23
Posted: 12/1/2011 3:04:08 PM
It started from
Beynon89
#17
Posted: 12/1/2011 12:54:56 AM

The post has a "Search" button.
Possibly some copy and paste that included code.
Here is the source code line that caused it.
   input class="searchbutton" value="Search" type="submit"
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#24
Posted: 12/2/2011 11:52:00 PM
MoneyShot: Just use the arrow and highlight the sentences or just right-mouse-click and select "Select All", and then paste it to any text editor (or even Notepad) and the rest will be shown. I did the same and noticed it was more than just one word that was cut-off.
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