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[Systems & Strategies] Topic: 2012 Opening Game Favorite |
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Riceboi |
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#301 Posted: 5/10/2012 9:07:37 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Air1:
forgot to mention the second time i did 2012 I made it so that when a game is tied you redo the bet that was tied. 2011 i did not do that.
If that theory was applied to the system then A + B games would hit at a higher rate than C games (and obviously less C bets) along with a certain labby lines, 1st 5 can be just as if not more profitable than full games
At least that is what I believe.
what about 1st 5inn with the RL (-.5) can get way better odds than ML?
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gentruchi |
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#302 Posted: 5/10/2012 9:24:48 PM
Personally, I run the 2 game variation I suggested a couple of years back and either way I'm not having the results as last year... I'm only down 1 unit, and to avoid the headaches I rather not to deal with teams like Boston or the Phillies, I really suggest you to avoid teams like these (below .500) until they start to play baseball and be real -200 favorites, just my two cents.
If you guys have good money management this system will bounce back sooner or later and there will be good profit by the end of season, I just hope you don't run out your bankroll before it happens. GL everyone
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Riceboi |
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#303 Posted: 5/10/2012 9:32:12 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by gentruchi:
Hey guys, is very sad to see the system is not showing the big profit as it use to be on previous years, it already has the number of losses that should've late on the season but oh well, I will never blame on therizz for sharing this great system as it has generated me big units on the past years, to bad for those that are just jumping in.
Personally, I run the 2 game variation I suggested a couple of years back and either way I'm not having the results as last year... I'm only down 1 unit, and to avoid the headaches I rather not to deal with teams like Boston or the Phillies, I really suggest you to avoid teams like these (below .500) until they start to play baseball and be real -200 favorites, just my two cents.
If you guys have good money management this system will bounce back sooner or later and there will be good profit by the end of season, I just hope you don't run out your bankroll before it happens. GL everyone
What's the 2 game variation?
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Air1 |
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#304 Posted: 5/10/2012 11:14:38 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Riceboi:
what about 1st 5inn with the RL (-.5) can get way better odds than ML?
If we do play this system as well along with the full game version, then DO NOT play the -.5 for the 1st 5 innings!!!!
You would have something like an additional 10 losses!!!
If we do play the variation of this system ONLY play ML for 1st 5 and I would filter out teams who have trouble scoring recently. I saw a lot of losses coming when teams dont score or only 1/2 in the first 5 for all 3 games.
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Air1 |
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#305 Posted: 5/10/2012 11:24:57 PM
5 3gm chase losses.. 8 or 9 3 game chase losses
1st 5 also has a bunch of 1 or 2 gm loses that would add up to about 2.4 3 gm chase losses.
177 wins ...................................194 wins
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gentruchi |
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#306 Posted: 5/11/2012 2:47:34 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Riceboi:
What's the 2 game variation?
Well it's a variation I suggested based on the original Opening Game Favorite Chase system posted by therizz, but using additional filters. It basically came out due that even when the therizz system generates more units itself during the season the 2 game variation does not require too many stressful chases at a higher winning average but less qualifying plays. I personally pull the trigger on game B's)game #3 of the series) that has the highest winning avg. (around 94%... I don't have the numbers of the 3 years I backtested but it is as successful as the original system but at a lower pct. of possible plays.
The main filters I use are the following.
- The chase starts right at game #2 after the qualifying team losses game #1.
-This is a 2 game chase only (does not include the 4th game of a qualifying series)
- The team should have open at least at -145 and close at least at -145 if any of the 2 reqs. is not met is not a play.
- Only home teams
- Only teams with winning pct. (over .500)
- To pull the trigger big on bet B (6 to 10 units this is what I do) the team must have a winning pct. at that time of bet B
- Quit using the system on September
-I personally do not bet on really big favorites like -230 or more it's just not worth the risk and this games were not used on the stats.
The money management is on your own, I personally straight martingale on game B (or game# 3 of the series) and if the team fully qualifies I put up to 10 units. ( I made around 90 units using this filters last year) but I'm still waiting for a qualifying B bet yet this year.
If someone else wants to try it, do it on your own. Good luck everyone.
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robbypark |
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#307 Posted: 5/11/2012 5:06:41 AM |
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robbypark |
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#308 Posted: 5/11/2012 11:16:30 PM |
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therizz |
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#309 Posted: 5/12/2012 11:32:37 AM Plays for 5/10
SEASON RECORD: 33-4 -11.8U
AL: 15-2 (G1:11, G2: 3, G3:1, L:2)
NL: 18-2 (G1:13, G2: 4, G3:1, L:2)
O/U Filter: 6-0 (G1:4, G2: 2, G3:0)
Series Game Time Line o/u towin
Ser #38 (G1) 7:00 cle @ BOS -150 8.5 50/1.67U 
* denotes plays passing the o/u filter of 9+ for game 1
Labby Lines
AL: NL:
x-x-83-82 -80 x-60-90
x-75-75-66 15-61-65-80
15-86-75-66-75 15-62-80-90
*O/U Filter Plays
22-23
22-23
22-23
Base 1U = 30 |
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therizz |
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#310 Posted: 5/12/2012 11:44:12 AM Plays for 5/11
SEASON RECORD: 33-4 -11.8U
AL: 15-2 (G1:11, G2: 3, G3:1, L:2)
NL: 18-2 (G1:13, G2: 4, G3:1, L:2)
O/U Filter: 6-0 (G1:4, G2: 2, G3:0)
Series Game Time Line o/u towin
Ser #38 (G2) 7:00 cle @ BOS -120 75/2.5U Ser#39 (G1) 7:00 sd @ PHI -150 7.5 75/2.5U Ser#40 (G1) 8:00 laa @ TEX-150 8.5 83/2.75U Ser#41 (G1) 8:00 kc @ CWS -145 7.5 82/2.75U Ser#42 (G1) 8:00 atl @ STL -145 8 75/2.5U Ser#43 (G1) 10:00 col @ LAD -155 7.5 75/2.5U
* denotes plays passing the o/u filter of 9+ for game 1
Labby Lines
AL: NL:
83-82 60-90
75-75-66 15-61-65-80
15-86-75-66-75 15-62-80-90
*O/U Filter Plays
22-23
22-23
22-23
Base 1U = 30 |
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therizz |
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#311 Posted: 5/12/2012 11:49:30 AM Plays for 5/11
SEASON RECORD: 38-4 -2.13U
AL: 18-2 (G1:13, G2: 4, G3:1, L:2)
NL: 20-2 (G1:15, G2: 4, G3:1, L:2)
O/U Filter: 6-0 (G1:4, G2: 2, G3:0)
Series Game Time Line o/u towin
Ser #38 (G2) 7:00 cle @ BOS -120 75/2.5U  Ser#39 (G1) 7:00 sd @ PHI -150 7.5 75/2.5U
Ser#40 (G1) 8:00 laa @ TEX-150 8.5 83/2.75U
Ser#41 (G1) 8:00 kc @ CWS -145 7.5 82/2.75U
Ser#42 (G1) 8:00 atl @ STL -145 8 75/2.5U
Ser#43 (G1) 10:00 col @ LAD -155 7.5 75/2.5U
* denotes plays passing the o/u filter of 9+ for game 1
Labby Lines
AL: NL:
x-x +165 x-50 +150, -100
75-x-66 +75 65-61-65-80
15-86-75-66-75 15-62-80-90
*O/U Filter Plays
22-23
22-23
22-23
Base 1U = 30 |
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therizz |
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#312 Posted: 5/12/2012 11:52:28 AM Plays for 5/12
SEASON RECORD: 38-4 -2.13U
AL: 18-2 (G1:13, G2: 4, G3:1, L:2)
NL: 20-2 (G1:15, G2: 4, G3:1, L:2)
O/U Filter: 6-0 (G1:4, G2: 2, G3:0)
Series Game Time Line o/u towin
Ser#42 (G2) 7:00 atl @ STL -120 65/2.16U
* denotes plays passing the o/u filter of 9+ for game 1
Labby Lines
AL: NL:
x-x x-50
75-x-66 65-61-65-80
15-86-75-66-75 15-62-80-90
*O/U Filter Plays
22-23
22-23
22-23
Base 1U = 30 |
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gentruchi |
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#313 Posted: 5/13/2012 11:38:06 AM
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SoCal311 |
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#314 Posted: 5/13/2012 12:34:11 PM  |
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therizz |
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#315 Posted: 5/13/2012 1:57:28 PM Plays for 5/12
SEASON RECORD: 38-4 -4.73U
AL: 18-2 (G1:13, G2: 4, G3:1, L:2)
NL: 20-2 (G1:15, G2: 4, G3:1, L:2)
O/U Filter: 6-0 (G1:4, G2: 2, G3:0)
Series Game Time Line o/u towin
Ser#42 (G2) 7:00 atl @ STL -120 65/2.16U
* denotes plays passing the o/u filter of 9+ for game 1
Labby Lines
AL: NL:
x-x x-50
75-x-66 78-74-78-80 -78
15-86-75-66-75 54-62-80-90
*O/U Filter Plays
22-23
22-23
22-23
Base 1U = 30 |
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therizz |
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#316 Posted: 5/13/2012 1:59:49 PM Plays for 5/13
SEASON RECORD: 38-4 -4.73U
AL: 18-2 (G1:13, G2: 4, G3:1, L:2)
NL: 20-2 (G1:15, G2: 4, G3:1, L:2)
O/U Filter: 6-0 (G1:4, G2: 2, G3:0)
Series Game Time Line o/u towin
Ser#42 (G3) 2:00 atl @ STL -145 62/2.07U
* denotes plays passing the o/u filter of 9+ for game 1
Labby Lines
AL: NL:
x-x x-50
75-x-66 78-74-78-80 -78
15-86-75-66-75 54-62-80-90
*O/U Filter Plays
22-23
22-23
22-23
Base 1U = 30 |
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gentruchi |
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#317 Posted: 5/13/2012 6:01:40 PM 
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Jattdoit |
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#318 Posted: 5/13/2012 6:25:56 PM |
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Air1 |
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#319 Posted: 5/13/2012 9:39:51 PM
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therizz |
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#320 Posted: 5/13/2012 11:04:45 PM
All 2 game series this week, so we have a few days to clear our minds. Interleague starts after that. We only play the games that meet the over/under filter for IL. The game 2s and 3s are just wreaking havoc this year. Hopefully this thing will turn around. At this point I am just trying to scale down the plays until the ship rights itself
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Air1 |
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#321 Posted: 5/15/2012 12:56:10 AM
System should bounce back in a few wks. Need a new local! FML if I can't find one.
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Riceboi |
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#322 Posted: 5/15/2012 1:18:16 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Air1:
This system really screwed me so far this season. Played in between a leboucher and martingale chase. My local says he 'feels sorry' for me & doesn't want to take any more bets from me to stop me from losing my $.
System should bounce back in a few wks. Need a new local! FML if I can't find one.
yeah right he is probably just afraid you'll turn it around and kick his behind.
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Air1 |
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#323 Posted: 5/15/2012 1:28:05 AM
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glefkb01 |
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#324 Posted: 5/16/2012 7:05:50 AM  ) and Texas (-250 ) today |
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Throbbingristle |
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#325 Posted: 5/16/2012 7:51:24 AM |
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