|Forbes vs Vargas
Posted: 5/5/2012 12:55:36 PM
This is a good "step-up" fight for Vargas. While Forbes isn't his former self, he is the textbook definition of a gatekeeper. He's been in there with best, including former champions such as Oscar, Berto, and K9 Bundrage.
Vargas hasn't shown elite power and Forbes has only been stopped once in 11 defeats. I don't see that happening tonight either. Vargas SHOULD win via points, reasonably priced at even money. However, given Forbes experience and Vargas's inexperience, betting the fight to go the distance at -120 is my play here.
Latimore vs Quintana
Not much to say here. I simply don't believe Quintana has anything left in the tank. I feel Latimore cruises here, with an accumulation stoppage not being out of the question. Latimore straight at -130 is an absolute steal. If there is an under card bout to focus on, this is probably it.
Mosley vs Alvarez
Some people aren't that high on Canelo. I, for one, am. Mosley simply looks terrible. We've seen all the signs of decline in recent fights. Unfortunately, that comes to a crescendo tonight. I'm expecting Alvarez to dominate and stop Mosley for the first time in his career. Alvarez ITD, +157.
Mayweather vs Cotto
I'm not a huge Mayweather fan. However, I've NEVER seen him look better physically than he does right now at 151. The best Mayweather performance I've seen was his destruction of Arturo Gatti. He might trump that tonight.
Cotto has made a nice little run after the Margarito and Pacquiao losses. However, it's largely been smoke n mirrors. Beating a one eyed, standard gloved Margarito isn't a big deal. Neither is beating Mayorga or Yuri Foreman. He didn't show the level of power and aggressiveness he had earlier in his career in these bouts. If I had to guess, it simply doesn't exist anymore.
Cotto is a man's man. He's a great guy, one that often leaves you rooting for him, even if it isn't realistic. Don't let tonight be one of those nights. Something strange COULD happen, but probably won't.
All of this being said, two ways to win are always better than one. Cotto still has a ton of heart and will be there to fight. Oddly enough, Mayweather will probably continue his recent trend of staying in the pocket and trading. Mosley rocked him and now he's fighting at 154 for only the second time. A blown up Cotto could do the same if Mayweather gets too aggressive.
Should be a good fight - one that won't see the final bell. Fight won't go the distance, +135.
Good luck everyone, have fun tonight and be safe.