Palhares is a beast, but I think Belcher is a better grappler than he's given credit for.
On the feet, Belcher is better and the longer / taller fighter. I see Palhares trying desperately to get it to the ground and Belcher trying desperately to keep it on the feet.
I don't think Belcher will kick much, as it opens up the takedown for Palhares. I see Belcher moving and avoiding some tough spots and scrambles and pulling out a judges decision.
Belcher +240