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Author: [Mixed Martial Arts] Topic: UFC 143
sawman send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
sawman
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#1
Posted: 2/2/2012 12:07:30 PM

one play so far:

Diaz -190 $100 wins $53

another tough card to cap, as a whole, but heres a few initial thoughts:

Natal/Kuiper - Kuiper's been inpressive in the bush leagues, but Natal is a big step up

Thompson/Stittgen - who?

riddle/martinez - i like riddle as martinez took this fight on real short notice. but riddle, coming off a cancelled fight due to him getting sick by his weight cut.... wait until the weigh ins to see how he looks

brown/cope - brown has never been favored this much against anyone, but against cope it is likely deserved. cope looked horrible last fight, but che mills is the real deal. i think brown should be all around better

poirier/holloway - poirier is one you can bank on for sure

caceres/figuero - i originally was liking bruce leeroy, but figuero has only lost to michael mcdonald. not a knock against his record, really. leeroys standup and mental game looked vastly improved last fight

herman/starks - i really like herman here - should be all around better

barao/jorgensen - i am really considering jorgensen, based on his experience in the big show. barao's biggest test to date. can't see him rolling over jorgensen like he has all thge others

kos/pierce - leaning pierce. almost surely a decision, and should be 15 minutes of standup

werdum/nelson - leaning country. i dont think werdum can either KO or submit country. he may out point him. but country can also outpoint as well. and he can also KO werdum

diaz/condit - diazes are jst too good right now to bet against

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#2
Posted: 2/2/2012 12:24:56 PM
poirier/brown/herman  $50 wins $57
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ctm1985 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#3
Posted: 2/2/2012 4:24:45 PM
I'm going with a similar parlay too, poirier/brown/riddle.. bunch of favourites that look good on this card.  I'm actually leaning Pierce as well though, Hughes was doing a good job standing against Kos and pierce isn't going to wilt under those punches like Hughes did,  Koscheck will for sure have to use his wrestling..

And werdum/nelson I have no idea WTF to make of that one
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ParlayADay send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
ParlayADay
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#4
Posted: 2/2/2012 4:30:55 PM
Add Thompson to your parlays!

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sawman send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#5
Posted: 2/2/2012 5:35:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ParlayADay:

Add Thompson to your parlays!

why?

 

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#6
Posted: 2/2/2012 6:20:19 PM
I really have very few leans this card.  I think a lot of favorites win, but the lines aren't great.  I mean -300 range for Ed Herman?  -320 range on 12-11 Matt Brown?  I think both these guys win, but those are tough to bet.

I do think Poirier wins and they are just throwing him a bone here to keep him in contention since there is no guys at 145 lbs that deserve to fight Aldo.  Poirier should be parlay material.

I think Barao wins.  I think that line is justified.  It is just hard to lay that much juice against a guy as good as Jorgensen.  I do think Barao could prove to be the next big thing though.  Not exactly sure about Barao's TDD but his striking sure is superior.  And he is real dangerous on the ground to mess with too much.  At the least his BJJ is good enough to get back to his feet.
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MoneyShot send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#7
Posted: 2/2/2012 8:10:48 PM
GL Saw
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#8
Posted: 2/2/2012 8:42:25 PM
with you on diaz sawman

BOL to you with the rest of your bets
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#9
Posted: 2/3/2012 1:52:45 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by ctm1985:

I'm going with a similar parlay too, poirier/brown/riddle.. bunch of favourites that look good on this card.  I'm actually leaning Pierce as well though, Hughes was doing a good job standing against Kos and pierce isn't going to wilt under those punches like Hughes did,  Koscheck will for sure have to use his wrestling..

And werdum/nelson I have no idea WTF to make of that one

i don't think Kos will be able to take and hold down pierce. he should be a little quicker with his hands. will move a little better. but i don't see a KO, by Kos, maybe pierce will get lucky

have you played riddle yet? any concerns with his weight and health. he alwasy drops lots of weight. even though he looked decent at his last weigh in, he got sick and wasn't cleared by doctors

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sawman send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#10
Posted: 2/3/2012 3:33:14 PM

poirier/barao/kos/herman  $50 wins $106

i really like poirier and herman.

barao line is getting worse. i was leaning jorg, but i think barao will be too much to handle

also was considering pierce, but in the end i think kos plays it smart and wins decision

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#11
Posted: 2/4/2012 2:32:01 PM

updated plays:

Diaz   $100 wins $53

brown/herman/poirier  $50 wins $57

caceres/herman  $40 wins $64

kos/poirier/barao/herman  $50 wins $106

thompson/barao  $50 wins $43

country/riddle/poirier/thompson/kos  $30 wins $149

thompson/caceres/poirier/barao  $30 wins $100

just for the hell of it!!... brown/riddle/poirier/herman/kos/

barao/ellenberger/belfort/gustafson/stann  $20 wins $397

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ctm1985 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#12
Posted: 2/4/2012 3:06:09 PM
You've gone parlay crazy   That last one is actually a really nice payout considering all the huge favourites on there!

And yep I ended up playing Riddle in that parlay, thought about betting him ITD as well but not gonna.  Just that size difference is massive though, and he was saying he's simply not a points fighter and will be going all-out as usual, I think he'll overwhelm Martinez.

Hope you hit a few of those, good luck
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kevalev send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#13
Posted: 2/4/2012 3:20:36 PM
I LOVE to make some long shot parlays!

Look at this one!

Diaz/Kos/Barao/Herman/Werdum/Poirier/Brown/NYG -2.5 and have already won Heat ML and OKC ML : $10 for $470$
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sawman send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#14
Posted: 2/4/2012 3:21:55 PM

parlay crazy for sure - liking a lot of favs with big numbers. one more small n square play!:

barao/herman/porier $80 wins $108

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#15
Posted: 2/4/2012 4:09:54 PM

W/ You All They Way on Diaz..........

There IS alot of juice where there normally wouldn't be.......

    A note from your bankroll advisor.  Pull one of those parlays off the board, put it in a waiting stash account, and dump it on that Hettes kid the next time he fights......lol

I do like your card though.......best of luck to you !

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sawman send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#16
Posted: 2/4/2012 4:18:58 PM
Unfortunately my bankroll advisor is retarded. I just may bet hettes but I don't need to pull a bet to do it. I keep it pretty small compared to most
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sawman send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#17
Posted: 2/4/2012 9:42:10 PM
That was without a doubt the most dominant position I've ever seen!
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