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Author: [Other] Topic: Django's AFL 2012 thread
Django
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#126
Posted: 5/13/2012 2:07:16 AM
Historically Port haven't done too bad against the Dockers, despite the 56 point loss there in 2010. Freo were lucky to get over the line against the Suns, with Ross Lyons defensive tactics I don't like Freo to cover 30 points, most games at Subiaco have been abnormally low scoring, think Port will bounce back from last week and keep it a respectable 20-25 points.

Fremantle 1-39 .5 @ 2.25 (pinny)
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#127
Posted: 5/13/2012 4:22:52 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kiwipride1983:

Nice call on the Dogs Django. Surprised Nth Melb didn't turn up today with a full strength roster, at home too!


Cheers, Docklands is Bulldogs home ground too, so the home/away thing was negated for North. If it was at MCG and North didn't have the short turnaround it most likely would have been much different. Docklands helps Bulldogs high intensity pressure game, being indoor with sterile conditions and being a smaller ground they can often run a lot of teams that are "better on paper" off their feet and bridge the skill gap with tackling pressure. They did it to Carlton last year at Docklands at similar odds. Always be wary of large spreads against the Dogs at docklands.
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Django
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#128
Posted: 5/13/2012 6:33:30 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Django:


Fremantle 1-39 .5 @ 2.25 (pinny)


Freo by 40

YTD
28-36-0 | Multi 0-4
-2.13


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Django
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#129
Posted: 5/14/2012 4:31:34 AM
Haven't done very well with margins over the weekend. However, with the line moving about 6 points and seeing Carlton don't put up high scores at Etihad and Saints generally play ok there and have a very good record against the Blues in recent years, I think Carlton get up by a few goals in a close low scoring game.

Carlton 1-39 1u @ 2.20 (sportsbet)
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#130
Posted: 5/14/2012 5:15:36 AM

I thought the saints looked pretty decent against hawthorn last week up until the last quarter when they got run over a bit.
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#131
Posted: 5/14/2012 7:36:47 AM
Carlton in my black book box are A W F U L 
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#132
Posted: 5/14/2012 7:37:02 AM
Should of seen the wirting on the wall last 3 performances
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Django
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#133
Posted: 5/14/2012 7:47:20 AM
Saints to fade again?
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Django
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#134
Posted: 5/14/2012 8:28:35 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Django:

Haven't done very well with margins over the weekend. However, with the line moving about 6 points and seeing Carlton don't put up high scores at Etihad and Saints generally play ok there and have a very good record against the Blues in recent years, I think Carlton get up by a few goals in a close low scoring game.

Carlton 1-39 1u @ 2.20 (sportsbet)


Saints win a high scoring game

YTD
28-37-0 | Multi 0-4
-3.13

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Django
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#135
Posted: 5/17/2012 11:54:35 PM
Pies 1-39 .5u @ 2.45 (sportingbet)
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#136
Posted: 5/18/2012 2:08:20 AM
Great record Idiot
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#137
Posted: 5/18/2012 5:38:46 AM
lets see you do better?
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Django
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#138
Posted: 5/18/2012 5:54:50 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Zman01:

Great record Idiot


Thanks buddy, BOL with following/fading people on covers, if/when you can cap your own games and are man enough to put your plays/reasoning out for all to see and critique, I'll look forward to seeing your season threads.
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Django
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#139
Posted: 5/18/2012 8:28:12 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Django:

Pies 1-39 .5u @ 2.45 (sportingbet)


YTD
29-37-0 | Multi 0-4
-2.40

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#140
Posted: 5/18/2012 9:40:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Zman01:

Great record Idiot

The only question for you is Do you believe your always going 
to be a Failure? We all know just by your comment your own record
is LOSS/LOSS/LOSS cont..../
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Django
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#141
Posted: 5/18/2012 11:40:57 PM
Cold wet day in Adelaide, with these teams history 183.5 is too low for an under despite the weather, so sticking with my initial lean, Roos to bounce back, they are 5-1 against Port in their last 6, wet weather should help keep it close.

Norf to win by 16.

Roos 1-39 .5u @ 2.36 (sportingbet)
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#142
Posted: 5/18/2012 11:44:08 PM
Quarter by Quarter Leader

Port Adelaide / North Melbourne / Port Adelaide / North Melbourne .1u @ 48.00
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#143
Posted: 5/18/2012 11:54:42 PM
Hawks -29.5 .5u @ 1.971 (pinnacle)

Swans -40.5 .5u @ 2.00
(pinnacle)
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Django
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#144
Posted: 5/19/2012 4:14:04 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Django:



Roos 1-39 .5u @ 2.36 (sportingbet)

How the hell did Roos snatch defeat from the jaws of victory...

Port Adelaide / North Melbourne / Port Adelaide / North Melbourne .1u @ 48.00

Hawks -29.5 .5u @ 1.971 (pinnacle)



YTD
30-38-0 | Multi 0-5
-2.52

This game is in Darwin, Bulldogs haven't played there since '10, Suns first game there but would have to imagine Suns players are acclimatised to the conditions which isn't much different than the Gold Coast. Dogs beat Suns by 22 points at Gold Coast last year, think it will a similar margin. Not liking Dogs to cover -35 and think it's highly unlikely Suns win SU.

Bulldogs 1-39 .5u @ 2.40 (pinnacle)

Bombers 1-39 .5u @ 2.35 (sportingbet)

Think Bombers and Tigers will be a cracking game, Tigers much improved this year and generally lift against the Dons, can see this game being decided by a kick or two so feeling the margin is the better bet, with no key numbers in AFL, this 12.5 spread could get burnt by a point or two, whatever side you take.

Two bad beats on 1-39 bets on Norf today and Freo v Port last week, hopefully this doesn't end up the same.


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#145
Posted: 5/19/2012 4:45:25 AM
Can you please explain to me what a "1-39" bet is?  My book only offers point spreads on these matches.

I had the Swans -41.5, which looks to be in the book (1/4 left), and wanted to roll it on the Bombers/Tigers match.  I thought the Bombers might be a good bet at -13.5, but seems like you think it could be a tight match?

Sorry for the newbie questions, trying to start following more and just getting into following the teams and betting.

thx 

bk
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Django
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#146
Posted: 5/19/2012 5:05:59 AM
It's cool mate, "1-39" is a winning margin prop, one of the major markets for AFL, generally only offered on Aussie books, Pinnacle and occasionally bet365.

basically just team to win under 6.5 goals or you can take "40+" for over 6.5 goals

I take them on certain games where I feel the teams are relatively even matched and when the spread is either too high, or when there's no value in the ML, due to no key numbers in AFL, small spreads especially often lose by 1 or 2 points. But then 40/41 point wins or 1 or 2 point upsets kill your 1-39 bets, pick your poison I tells ya.

Yeah I have a feeling this could be right down to the wire, 1 point nailbiter type game, this is one of the marquee games of two traditional Melbourne teams. Essendon are the form side of the year and should on paper cover a relatively small spread, but I don't see Richmond being beaten too badly, wouldn't even be surprised if they win SU. If I had to pick ats or total, my pick would likely be over 190 or whatever it is. It's a dry mild night, weather won't hinder scoring and I can see both sides putting up over 90/100 each.
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#147
Posted: 5/19/2012 5:16:24 AM
Appreciate the response!!  I think I get it.  My book doesn't offer that line though, so I guess I'm stuck guessing ATS.

I'll take your advice and bank on a close match and take the Tigers +14.5.  Swans covered easy, so what the H.   Hopefully I'll wake up and have another W.

thx again, and good luck


bk
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Django
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#148
Posted: 5/19/2012 5:33:31 AM
QUOTEruh roh, well hope I'm right and it's a 1-14 point win to the Bombers. Personally I wouldn't bet on Richmond, even though I've had a funny feeling all week they win tonight and Essendon are possibly due to drop a game.

While I do rate Richmond as a better side this year, I really struggle to bet on them, there's a bit of bias as Richmond have been a joke, they are one of those teams that will beat the top team of the competition one week, then lose to the bottom the next.

Hope we're both on a winner and you enjoy the game anyway

Originally Posted by Django:

Swans -40.5 .5u @ 2.00 (pinnacle)




Swans win by 100, damn Melbourne are rubbish, was a bit worried about Swans covering 40 which is a large spread for them but that was an easy winner.

YTD
31-38-0 | Multi 0-5
-2.02
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Django
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#149
Posted: 5/19/2012 5:34:09 AM
lol at the rickety quote system buggering up the formatting
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Django
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#150
Posted: 5/19/2012 8:33:20 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Django:


Bulldogs 1-39 .5u @ 2.40 (pinnacle)

Bombers 1-39 .5u @ 2.35 (sportingbet)


Bulldogs by 38

Bombers by 19

pretty decent day overall shame i wussed out with half unit bets, was kinda spooked about this round of afl.

YTD
33-38-0 | Multi 0-5
-0.64


bad luck bk Tigers should have had that cover. Can't believe they fudged that dying second chance at a goal to get you the win.


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