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Author: [College Football] Topic: Southern Methodist at Pittsburgh (01/07/2012)
hordman
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hordman
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#51
Posted: 1/7/2012 12:30:59 PM
I dont post too much on the site, but do I read alot of the message board to gauge a game and get some insight. I have a mathematical formula I use to calc pts/play and take into consideration the PR between the teams.  PR is the power ranking that this site displays after each weekend.

I ran the nos. and I got Pitt 32-17.  I do agree it's hard to get a feel for this Pitt team sometimes.  a friend of mine says that when Pitt is expected to win, they garbage the bed and when they are underdogs, they come thru and pull out a victory.

Without a doubt SMU's biggest win was TCU, but after watching TCU in the bowl game, their Def was definitely down this year and u can see why SMU threw all over the place vs. them.

Pitt has a played an above avg schedule this year, alot of Bowl teams on that list. I do agree that they will need to run the ball and keep Sunseri from having to make big plays for them, that's not his style.  Pitt's DEF has played decent at times as well. 

The keys to this game are TOs and Pitt's ability to run the ball effectively.  If SMU can go early, build a lead, Pitt will be in for a battle.

One item is that is joker in all of this is how Pitt responds to the loss of Coach Graham. The players were pissed and everyone saw Twitter and their opinion.  If they use that to galvanize the team and show him what he lost, then I can see Pitt putting up the score I wrote, 32-17.

GLTA.
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NoBetNoWin
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#52
Posted: 1/7/2012 12:38:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hordman:

I dont post too much on the site, but do I read alot of the message board to gauge a game and get some insight. I have a mathematical formula I use to calc pts/play and take into consideration the PR between the teams.  PR is the power ranking that this site displays after each weekend.

I ran the nos. and I got Pitt 32-17.  I do agree it's hard to get a feel for this Pitt team sometimes.  a friend of mine says that when Pitt is expected to win, they garbage the bed and when they are underdogs, they come thru and pull out a victory.

Without a doubt SMU's biggest win was TCU, but after watching TCU in the bowl game, their Def was definitely down this year and u can see why SMU threw all over the place vs. them.

Pitt has a played an above avg schedule this year, alot of Bowl teams on that list. I do agree that they will need to run the ball and keep Sunseri from having to make big plays for them, that's not his style.  Pitt's DEF has played decent at times as well. 

The keys to this game are TOs and Pitt's ability to run the ball effectively.  If SMU can go early, build a lead, Pitt will be in for a battle.

One item is that is joker in all of this is how Pitt responds to the loss of Coach Graham. The players were pissed and everyone saw Twitter and their opinion.  If they use that to galvanize the team and show him what he lost, then I can see Pitt putting up the score I wrote, 32-17.

GLTA.

Nice post, would like to read more about your calculations..  I agree with all of your points.
GL.
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hordman
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#53
Posted: 1/7/2012 12:47:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NoBetNoWin:


Nice post, would like to read more about your calculations..  I agree with all of your points. GL.


Thanks, I use excel where I calculating a teams' plays per game vs. the pts they score.  It's sometimes tedious, looking at the stats online, but I use it because I need a baseline for predicting games. betting on games based on "gut", usually dont work for me, I've got my opinions on teams and most of the time that burns me.  using the my calculations allows me to be a little more unbiased.  GL.
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WiseGuy702
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#54
Posted: 1/7/2012 12:48:54 PM
SMU +3.5

 Good luck 
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NoBetNoWin
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#55
Posted: 1/7/2012 12:54:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hordman:



Thanks, I use excel where I calculating a teams' plays per game vs. the pts they score.  It's sometimes tedious, looking at the stats online, but I use it because I need a baseline for predicting games. betting on games based on "gut", usually dont work for me, I've got my opinions on teams and most of the time that burns me.  using the my calculations allows me to be a little more unbiased.  GL.

Interesting..  you could also rate their defenses.  # plays v pts given up? 
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#56
Posted: 1/7/2012 12:58:46 PM
 SMU +4-   10 lbeersssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss
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hordman
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#57
Posted: 1/7/2012 1:01:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NoBetNoWin:


Interesting..  you could also rate their defenses.  # plays v pts given up? 


yes, that's correct.  then I compare one team's OFF pts/play vs the other team's DEF pts/play and split the difference. and vice versa.

it's actually a nice little system, though it is typing intensive sometimes, cut/paste, etc.
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#58
Posted: 1/7/2012 1:06:00 PM
Liking the under myself. BOL to all!
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#59
Posted: 1/7/2012 1:21:46 PM
pitt
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hordman
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#60
Posted: 1/7/2012 1:22:32 PM
Well, they did everything opposite I wrote in my message above.  Sunseri looked bad in his decision, and they let SMU get up early.  Pitt is going to have be patient and run the ball to open Sunseri up.
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#61
Posted: 1/7/2012 2:24:02 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by NoBetNoWin:


Interesting..  you could also rate their defenses.  # plays v pts given up? 

I like that , everything is in stat variables tendencies

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hordman
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#62
Posted: 1/7/2012 2:43:35 PM
I love how everyday football "observers & fans" can predict what a team needs to do to win games and yet "coaches" fail to do it. 

Pitt needs to run the ball, much bigger up front, and yet they are putting it in the hands of Sunseri to win it, who obviously can't make plays.

Oh well, game is over.  Congrats to all the SMU takers.  As I said earlier the post, when Pitt is suppose to win, they garbage the bed.

And right now, they got a mess to clean up.  GLTA with the remaining 2 bowl games.
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#63
Posted: 1/7/2012 3:02:18 PM

Over (2H) 24

BOLTALL!!!!

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