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Author: [CFL] Topic: Grey Cup Discussion
andarmac99 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 11/21/2011 11:17:09 AM
Hope everyone had a good year. There's only one game left so let's discuss. No line yet but obviously BC will be favored. I have no idea which way I will go but here's a few initial thoughts:

The Lions are absolutely steamrolling right now. If you throw out Bruce's first game in which they still had to iron out some kinks the Lions are 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games.

A lot of talk will be about Winnipeg's defense against the BC offense but BC has actually given up fewer points per game for the season and over their last 12 games they are only giving up 17.1 ppg. This is a unit that may have something to prove.

I'm not sure what to make of last week. BC just crushed Edmonton in every facet, that game wasn't as close as the score. You could say Winnipeg did the same but Hamilton did not put up any fight at all, they were completely spent from that classic Montreal game.

As far as the situation goes it is tough to ignore the fact that Winnipeg is 9-1-1 ATS as a underdog this year. They were looking for respect all year and when they finally started getting it and talking Swaggerville they weren't nearly as good although injuries played a part as well. This is the type of team that is very dangerous as an underdog because they play good defense, run the ball, and are very good at looking to prove people wrong and not just as a team but most of the players on this roster have had a lot to overcome and it all starts with Pierce.

Under Wally Buono the Lions have had a big run of choking when expectations got high in past years however this year they've been pretty good as a favorite especially during their big run here. There's no question all the pressure will be on the Lions in this one, they will be favored and are playing in their home building. Someone correct me if I'm wrong as I skimmed over the results quickly but I believe teams hosting the Grey Cup in their own building are just 1-4 SU over the last 30 years with the lone win coming by just 3 points. How will the Lions handle the pressure?


Your thoughts on anything game related???
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#2
Posted: 11/21/2011 12:48:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by andarmac99:

Hope everyone had a good year. There's only one game left so let's discuss. No line yet but obviously BC will be favored. I have no idea which way I will go but here's a few initial thoughts:

The Lions are absolutely steamrolling right now. If you throw out Bruce's first game in which they still had to iron out some kinks the Lions are 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games.

A lot of talk will be about Winnipeg's defense against the BC offense but BC has actually given up fewer points per game for the season and over their last 12 games they are only giving up 17.1 ppg. This is a unit that may have something to prove.

I'm not sure what to make of last week. BC just crushed Edmonton in every facet, that game wasn't as close as the score. You could say Winnipeg did the same but Hamilton did not put up any fight at all, they were completely spent from that classic Montreal game.

As far as the situation goes it is tough to ignore the fact that Winnipeg is 9-1-1 ATS as a underdog this year. They were looking for respect all year and when they finally started getting it and talking Swaggerville they weren't nearly as good although injuries played a part as well. This is the type of team that is very dangerous as an underdog because they play good defense, run the ball, and are very good at looking to prove people wrong and not just as a team but most of the players on this roster have had a lot to overcome and it all starts with Pierce.

Under Wally Buono the Lions have had a big run of choking when expectations got high in past years however this year they've been pretty good as a favorite especially during their big run here. There's no question all the pressure will be on the Lions in this one, they will be favored and are playing in their home building. Someone correct me if I'm wrong as I skimmed over the results quickly but I believe teams hosting the Grey Cup in their own building are just 1-4 SU over the last 30 years with the lone win coming by just 3 points. How will the Lions handle the pressure?


Your thoughts on anything game related???


Line has opened at BC -7 and 50 1/2 on the total.

I agree with you about the defenses....BC is every bit as good if not better than the Bombers. Most Outstanding Player Travis Lulay is in such a zone right now and the Lions seem unstoppable. I really cannot see them losing this game at home however to be safe I might Tease them down to a PK with the total (not sure which direction on the total yet).  Either that or just buy it down to 6 1/2 and I think it's golden.
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#3
Posted: 11/21/2011 3:33:18 PM
I can't say the line is that much of a surprise although it may be a half point higher than where I would have set it.

The total on the other hand looks high. Last week the total in the BC game was less at 50 and that was against a much better offensive club and much worse defensive club. I think we're getting a point or two because BC has scored 40+ in b2b games as well as the fact that this is a Grey Cup. The total was 51 in Winnipeg last week but Hamilton has just played in a game that almost had 100 points and their defense sucks.

I absolutely loathe playing Unders in football games because of the garbage that can happen but this is intriguing to me personally because I am struggling with the side. Winnipeg plays a style that favors an Under as they play good defense and run the ball. If they come looking for respect then that would also favor an Under. However on the other side BC's defense is flying under the radar and playing very well. I also think with the tremendous pressure the Lions will be under that they may play more conservative and struggle to score points especially early in the game, it's almost a best of both worlds scenario. I think the average person looking at BC thinks their offense is trucking but the reality is 12 of their last 15 games have gone UNDER because of their superb defense.

The most points Winnipeg has scored since the end of August has been 33 and they needed a pick 6 to get there so their offense hasn't managed more than 26 since the summertime. Both of these defenses are the best in the CFL at 1-2 in points allowed and yards.

The fact that this is the biggest game of the year also favors an under IMO. I don't have the totals beyond 2007 but the last 4 Grey Cups have all gone Under and going back to 1998 only 3 teams have managed to crack 30 points in this game and two of those teams did it in the same game. Big games usually equal pressure which in turn leads to conservative play and early on really favors the defense as teams try not to make mistakes and there is also a feeling out process. Here's the 1st quarter and 1st half scores from the previous 12 Grey Cups:

1st quarter: 15, 10, 3, 3, 9, 4, 7, 7, 1, 4, 11, 10.

1st half: 19, 20, 23, 17, 22, 11, 27, 45, 11, 21, 15, 21.

The current 1st half total is 25.5 which would have got the money 10 of the past 12 years and we probably have a game with two of the better defenses than those other 12 have produced.

The 1st quarter run goes back even further:

7, 10, 9, 13, and 3 points for the 5 years previous to above.

It should be mentioned most of those games were played in cold weather but it is still a good trend. The 1st quarter prop will probably have a very small limit but may still be worth an action shot.



Just thinking out loud here, feel free to drop anything.
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#4
Posted: 11/21/2011 8:59:48 PM
Great points all around.

My initial lean on this game is Winnipeg moneyline @ +285.  The pressure on BC at home will be tremendous, and if Winnipeg is close, I am confident they will win outright.   

Total seems pretty spot on.  Bombers involved in quite a few games right around that total, with the one exception being the frigid affair last weekend.  BC has been putting up decent points lately, and I expect Winnipeg to score at least a few TD's.  

Most value is with Winnipeg moneyline, but could see this game going anyway.  That line is already up to +7 +105, and moneyline at +285.

If it hits +300 it is truly a no brainer, as Winnipeg will win that game 1 out of 3 times.

Also keep in mind the bombers won 3 of 4 this season
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#5
Posted: 11/21/2011 10:06:05 PM
This is a game where I already have and might continue to lay the heavy chalk on the ML. Already hammered BC -300 to win $500 and have a monster ML parlay with Michigan -290 and BC -300. The Peg may cover but I doubt it. BC isn't going to lose this game at home.
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Posted: 11/22/2011 7:07:32 AM
Total unders in 6 of 7 previous Grey cup games.  Favorite is 3-0 SU and 0-3 ATS in  3 recent years.  Winnipeg is most lucrative underdog ATS but BC is the only profitable favorite ATS in 18 games.
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#7
Posted: 11/22/2011 7:43:36 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by andarmac99:

 .

Under Wally Buono the Lions have had a big run of choking when expectations got high in past years however this year they've been pretty good as a favorite especially during their big run here. There's no question all the pressure will be on the Lions in this one, they will be favored and are playing in their home building. Someone correct me if I'm wrong as I skimmed over the results quickly but I believe teams hosting the Grey Cup in their own building are just 1-4 SU over the last 30 years with the lone win coming by just 3 points. How will the Lions handle the pressure?


Your thoughts on anything game related???
The pressure that matters most is on the field.  Pierce is more likely to be pressured than Lulay.  Despite alot of runs, Winnipeg is 2nd worst in allowing sacks but BC is best in fewest  sacks.   BC has proven to be most consistent winner especially in big games.   Hottest team is unlikely to start choking now.  Losing 7 of 12 previous games, Winnipeg is inconsistent and more likely to choke especially wtih excess penalties.
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#8
Posted: 11/22/2011 9:17:28 PM

Interesting reading. 

There are a lot of factors pointing to this not even being close. I really think BC has the "team of destiny" thing going right now -- they're just on a powerful roll and nothing's going to stop them. Factoring everything in, including the fact the Grey Cup at home is not really a "home game" as tickets are sold across the country (also, there are reports that a lot of Lions' fans are unloading tickets to Winnipeg fans at top dollar) -- I just can't see this being close. 

 

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#9
Posted: 11/26/2011 3:39:46 PM

I think BC wins the game, but I like the Bombers to cover the spread. I thinking grabbing seven points with a solid defense and good running game is an automatic. Then you toss in a Defensive Coordinator who is going to his third Grey Cup in a row, and that is a nice streak to have on your side.

Buck needs to play well, the rest of the team (Palardy aside) I don't  worry about. Should be a great game.

Got the Bombers at the beginning of the year at +1800 to win the Cup, so if they can pull it off, I will be one happy man.

 

Andy, always enjoy your posts.

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#10
Posted: 11/26/2011 10:12:34 PM
The bombers have won both games that they played against BC....I think BC's offence is to high powered for the bombers to handle this time around. therfore my dime is on BC-7 with another dime on the under @ 50.5
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#11
Posted: 11/27/2011 5:52:52 AM
I like Bombers so far.
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Posted: 11/27/2011 12:20:24 PM
wow wish i knew how to pick this on i am in 3 rd place in the contest hope to remain there at the least
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andarmac99 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#13
Posted: 11/27/2011 12:53:18 PM
If this was a regular season game I would take a pass but since it's the Grey Cup I'll throw down some action bets. I think BC is feeling the hear here. I saw Lulay's presser yesterday and he was very jittery. Whether they get comfortable and get is going is something I don't know.

Right now I think the game starts out slowly with both teams trying to figure each other out get rid of their nerves. The fact we have the two best defenses is also a plus. The linesmakers have caught up to the 1st quarter trend much like the NFL so I went UNDER 25.5 (1st half). I also think the first quarter will be a total tossup and no one knows what to expect so I gladly took Winnipeg ML (1st quarter) +160 for half the total bets.

Nothing major just some action bets looking to pick up some change.

GL everyone.
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#14
Posted: 11/27/2011 9:33:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by clepto:

This is a game where I already have and might continue to lay the heavy chalk on the ML. Already hammered BC -300 to win $500 and have a monster ML parlay with Michigan -290 and BC -300. The Peg may cover but I doubt it. BC isn't going to lose this game at home.

 
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