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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Key's 5 Inning POD and 5 Full Game Plays 5.20.12
KeyElement
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#1
Posted: 5/21/2012 12:06:24 PM

Wow! Boy, did I get kicked in the butt yesterday. 0-4 and it was not pretty. But let me tell a little story here.Long, long ago, in a galaxy far, far away, I knew a highly reputable building contractor that told me once “You know when I can tell I have signed a bad contract and that job is going to go South on me, probably sooner than later? About five minutes after I signed it. I just get a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach.” Well, that is similar to how I feel about yesterday. I clicked the reliable old big screen on to the Mets-Jays game and what is the first thing I get to witness? Alvarez, highly displeased with the umpire on the opening walk and letting the emotion show. That is a bad thing to do as it pisses off the umpire and sets the pitcher in a bad frame of mind for the next hitter, which almost invariably causes problems for the balance of the inning. So, there was my “sick feeling in the pit of my stomach” and the balance of the day continued downhill. Now, every good story has a moral to it, so let me set that forth. I am no virgin, I have been there, done that. garbage happens. It is sort of like riding a horse. You get thrown off or fall of your own accord you have two choices. 1) Pick yourself up, dust yourself off, and get right back on or 2) Quit riding horses. Since I am back today with no fear you can probably figure out which I have chosen to do.     

5 Inning POD Dodgers +112, (Capuano / Corbin)
According to the numbers I track and use to compute pitcher effectives, Capuano is having the best season of his career and Corbin ain’t going to make it. The offensive differences between the two clubs are really not that big a deal. The concept that the D-backs may have a large edge here are based in prior mental perception, not on any major difference in reality. Neither club is hitting lefties extremely well, but the Dodgers are 8-5-2 over their last 15 versus lefty and the D-backs limp in at 6-8, having seen only fourteen lefties so far this season. The offensive era’s are quite similar at 3.6 and 3.5 respectively. As in most games thaere is a penalty attached to the D-backs for home field advantage, but with the Dodgers 9-9 on the road and the D-backs at 7-12 home, I think that factor is probably a little overvalued and will let the public keep it, believe in it, and back it. I like the bonus for taking the roadie.

Full game plays

Royals +139 (Paulino / Kuroda)
Folks just love famous names and home field advantage but I prefer reality versus the quoted odds. At -149 the Yankees need a 59.84% win probability just to pass the break even point, with no margin for profit. If it were there they would pay 67 cents on the dollar of risk. At +139 the Royals need a win probability of 41.84% to pay 139 cents on the dollar of risk, over twice as much per dollar of risk as the Yankees. That is called value, and it arises because folks bet names perceptions and home field advantage over reality. At this point I grant Paulino significant advantages over Kuroda and the Royals offense a miniscule edge over the Yankees. Not much, but enough to back Paulino at double the profit potential.

Nationals -128 (Gonzalez / Kendrick)
Kyle Kendrick picked a lousy year to let his performance level slide. He can’t pull a Rick Porcello and let the offense give him a good looking W-L record because his teammates do not constitute a good offense. The Nationals is not much better but is better than the Phillies so in what should be a low scoring pitchers duel I will back the man on the rise versus the one on the decline.

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KeyElement
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#2
Posted: 5/21/2012 12:06:46 PM

Giants -104, (Bumgarner / Wolf)

Nearly the same advantage I got with Vogelsong over Ross, whom Getty3 described as “Matt Cain at a lower price”. Very true, and Bumgarner also slips in under the radar as the attention regarding the Giants is always on Lincecum, Cain and the offense. Another factor driving the line on the Brewers is that they looked like the 27, 37, 47 or 57 Yankees yesterday versus the washed up Marquis. That is OK, Marquis is not only over the hill but is also right handed and the Brewers had dropped two straight at home to the Twins (we had them), so they were bound to be inspired. Bumgarner is a whole different problem and the Brewers offense versus lefties is nothing like what they laid on Marquis yesterday. Just 3-6-2 in the 5 inning game and 5-6 in 9 innings. The Giants offense is not great either at 5-5-2 in the 5 inning game, but is 8-4 in the 9 inning game versus lefty starters and gives us an added edge when we already have the pitching in Bumgarner versus Wolf.

 

Dodgers +117, (Capuano / Corbin) See above

 

Angels -105, (Williams / Milone)

Talk about flying under the radar! With all the attention in Anaheim focused on the failures of Pujols, Wilson, Weaver, Haren and Santana, almost noone is noticing the true rock of the staff, Williams. I could hope that someone gives the Devil his due, but why?, since as long as he flies under the radar the guy will still be a great value, even after the “stars” come out and do what they are supposed to do. Here is horse we can ride, and we may fall off, but not very often and not very expensively.

BOL

All plays are a flat 100 units. Lines are current at Best Available American Online Book as I post

5 Inning YTD: 33-52-13, -1,747.47 9 Inning YTD: 43-37, +1,471.44 NET -276.03

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#3
Posted: 5/21/2012 12:39:57 PM
GL
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#4
Posted: 5/21/2012 12:41:47 PM
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#5
Posted: 5/21/2012 2:38:19 PM
Gl
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KeyElement
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#6
Posted: 5/21/2012 2:46:09 PM
I have been out since posting this morning and expected to find this post buried on page 2 or 3, but it is still very near the top of page 1. That can only mean a lot of guys are not interested today, which probably means I am not the only one that got his butt kicked yesterday. Perseverance friends. Never give up.


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#7
Posted: 5/21/2012 3:04:53 PM
GL
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#8
Posted: 5/21/2012 3:08:02 PM
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#9
Posted: 5/21/2012 3:11:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KeyElement:

I have been out since posting this morning and expected to find this post buried on page 2 or 3, but it is still very near the top of page 1. That can only mean a lot of guys are not interested today, which probably means I am not the only one that got his butt kicked yesterday. Perseverance friends. Never give up.



It's on page 1 because people like your stuff.  
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#10
Posted: 5/21/2012 3:15:59 PM
I'm on LAD, KC, and now SF.
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#11
Posted: 5/21/2012 3:31:18 PM

I'm on SF with you now......that line didn't budge

I've really like Capuano this year, he's been very good. I considered the Dodgers but didn't play them.......basically, I completely agree with your thoughts on LA/AZ game.

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#12
Posted: 5/21/2012 3:55:37 PM
Im done betting against those Damn Dodgers,took the Cards last night to avoid the sweep,looked good until the 3 run homer in 7th by a Dodger rookie I guess he is.About the 3rd time Ive lost betting again them.
Nice looking card Key,
Like Bum after bad outing last time,Yankees keep losing why not,
GL tonight
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#13
Posted: 5/21/2012 3:56:32 PM
Giants Baseball.    



Get 'em, Key!  


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#14
Posted: 5/21/2012 4:05:24 PM
a. betting against the yankees
b.  not realizing Rivera, Uribe, Kemp and Ellis are all injured + chris young is back for Arizona
c. betting against milwaukee in wisconsin, after putting up 16 runs the previous day
d. angels -105? doesn't that make you ask questions?
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#15
Posted: 5/21/2012 4:44:10 PM
I agree with all of your plays today.  I was also leaning the plays you have that i'm passing on 
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KeyElement
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#16
Posted: 5/21/2012 6:12:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TheBestThing777:

a. betting against the yankees
b.  not realizing Rivera, Uribe, Kemp and Ellis are all injured + chris young is back for Arizona
c. betting against milwaukee in wisconsin, after putting up 16 runs the previous day
d. angels -105? doesn't that make you ask questions?
One thing I can tell from your post is that you like paying the premium price for home field advantage. Your money, your choice.
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#17
Posted: 5/21/2012 6:29:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TheBestThing777:

a. betting against the yankees
b.  not realizing Rivera, Uribe, Kemp and Ellis are all injured + chris young is back for Arizona
c. betting against milwaukee in wisconsin, after putting up 16 runs the previous day
d. angels -105? doesn't that make you ask questions?
A) Betting against the Yankees all year would have realized a profit of $716.00 based on a flat $100 bet
B)The Dodgers are 4-1 without Kemp. I don't have the time to look up the W/L without the other scrubs.
C) What's the Brewers W/L record over the last 3 years after scoring 10+ runs in a game ? 
D) The Angels are in last place. Doesn't -105 seem a bit strong for a last place team ?

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#18
Posted: 5/21/2012 7:39:26 PM

Go get em Key,

The LAA line is just flat out off, if you're not going to play that, you are not going to play anything with line value IMO.

I also think that the SF/Mil total flies over,,,   both 1st half and game. 

I had KC/NYY as a no play, and a  prett good  amount of line value with Gio in the Wash game.

GL

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#19
Posted: 5/22/2012 5:15:02 PM
Nice day Key,damn Angels just cant hit,LMAO,but the others came out just fine,plus the 2 bets on Dodgers,
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