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Author: [Investments] Topic: Stock Market Corrects Part 2
cave0707 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 4/8/2012 2:07:53 PM
I called for a market correction on April 2, 2012.  The S&P 500 futures were fell off a cliff on Friday (Apr 6) when the market was closed.  I expect the market to gap down Monday morning.  I'm thinking my timing may have been a week early.  The general markets seem to be rolling over and going long in the very near term seems like a dangerous play.  Good luck to all regardless what you do!!!
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#2
Posted: 4/8/2012 5:50:03 PM
fell off not were fell off ... sorry
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#3
Posted: 4/9/2012 1:58:12 PM
Not impressed with the sell off ... this correction looks to be short lived fellas.  Gunna sit the sidelines until its all over. 
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#4
Posted: 4/10/2012 1:56:19 PM
April 10, leaders are now selling off ... we are now in a good sized correction.  TZAs, TWMs and the likes are recommended.  I'd keep the position size meaningful but not overboard.  Good luck.
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#5
Posted: 4/10/2012 3:18:08 PM
Selling seems weak, I dont see any fear yet.
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#6
Posted: 4/10/2012 3:29:00 PM
dropping below 50 day was decent selling strength...but this market will not turn bearish with most of the fundies recovering consistently.

might see one more day like this in the next week, then i expect the upward trend to continue.
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#7
Posted: 4/10/2012 3:41:57 PM
Well I think the market is about 5k overvalued. Factor out the manipulated low rates and all other models of market valuation are destroyed.

Meaning the FED is why the markets are here, its phony.
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#8
Posted: 4/10/2012 4:07:24 PM
I dont remember the last time the markets closed on the lows of the day.


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#9
Posted: 4/10/2012 4:40:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

Well I think the market is about 5k overvalued. 

so im guessing you are shorting the hell out of it.

good luck with that...i have a feeling you might need it.  
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#10
Posted: 4/11/2012 12:58:56 PM

April 11 update - Regarding Nasdaq - I'd say a loss of 2% or more with volume above 2 billion shares would be very significant.  While the Nasdaq did not log any of those numbers, the average volume in March was rather low and the volume traded yesterday was significant compared to the average shares traded in March.  And given the indices have only topped a 1% loss or greater 2/3 times this bull market, I'd would say yesterday was enough to be bearish near term. 

My guess is that we're at the beginning stage of a mild/small correction.  I really don't expect this to last more than 4 weeks.  But the market will have the last say regarding this matter and I will simply follow the current trend.  My recommendation is still cash or inverse etfs until the market proves otherwise.  Good luck to you all.

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#11
Posted: 4/11/2012 1:02:19 PM
Wallstreet ... Question: QE3? Is it coming?  They said no ... but will the fed change their mind?  The Europe factor ... what do you think?  Greece gunna fail and bring Europe down regardless? 
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#12
Posted: 4/11/2012 4:48:21 PM
I think QE3 already is in progress..we never know since the way the FED can work is very secretive.

I dont see how we are at these levels given the economic environment, but what do I know?
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#13
Posted: 4/11/2012 5:43:38 PM
April 11 update Part Dos:  Checked some leaders, not looking good for longs.  Some barely held their ground while others outright sold off.  And given the volume on Nasdaq was rather pathetic at 1.5 billion (i think these numbers are final!!) on a gap up "bounce" day, I'd say go ahead and send in the reinforcement dollars to the short side.  This week looks to get worse.  Obviously the market will have a final say in this matter.  Bargain hunters in today's bounce might get slaughtered.  Good luck to all!!!
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#14
Posted: 4/12/2012 3:08:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cave0707:

  I'd say go ahead and send in the reinforcement dollars to the short side.  This week looks to get worse.  Obviously the market will have a final say in this matter.  Bargain hunters in today's bounce might get slaughtered.  Good luck to all!!!

hope you didn't short it too hard bro.
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#15
Posted: 4/12/2012 4:19:35 PM
April 12 Update, Sims - I went short on the day I called a market correction ... that was April 2.  General Markets - Nice up day on less than stellar 1.45 billion shares on Nasdaq.  I have to say, i'm getting closer and closer to closing the short positions for my personal account but I can't recommend going long just yet given the weak volume.  I'm still recommending cash or short-related etfs.  Something is odd with the way the market gaps up on weak volume yesterday and the way it busted through today on lower volume.  I almost wanna say "dead cat bounce".  Either way, I'm still calling for staying short or staying cash until I see a meaning 1.5% to 2.0% up day on convincing volume.  Good luck to all.
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#16
Posted: 4/13/2012 4:09:43 PM
April 13 Update - Well the general markets sucked again but I really don't see too much institutional support on the upside or major distribution on the downside at these levels.  Volume was low or pretty much unchanged for the last three days.  Sold half inverse etfs and held the rest for now.  My recommendation is still the same.  Cash or inverse etfs.  I do see some interesting plays on the long side BUT I'm not one to buy into a correction so ... good luck if you're long ... or short.  Monday should be interesting.
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#17
Posted: 4/16/2012 4:25:38 PM
April 16 Update - Nasdaq sucked (AAPL, PCLN).  Inverse etfs or cash recommended.  No details today ... to tired.
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