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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Post All-Star Home System
CKP22
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#126
Posted: 9/20/2012 12:32:12 AM
Nationals clear on Game 1.  Only two more plays left this season. Next play is Rangers starting Monday.

Record: 21-0
Game 1: 16
Game 2: 4
Game 3: 1

Record since started tracking in 1999: 449-0. 
436 wins within first three games.
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#127
Posted: 9/20/2012 9:57:20 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CKP22:



I actually haven't done that. Perhaps at the end of the season I'll go back and look.

That may actually benefit us more IMO. Out of the 15 1st game wins this year, we may have been able to get a few more wins IF assuming the teams win 1 of their next 3 games and NOT get swept.
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jaime2309
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#128
Posted: 9/20/2012 11:01:24 AM
Great numbers. Will definitely look for this next year. Great second half tool.
(handshake)
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#129
Posted: 9/22/2012 5:18:19 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BookieCrusher88:


That may actually benefit us more IMO. Out of the 15 1st game wins this year, we may have been able to get a few more wins IF assuming the teams win 1 of their next 3 games and NOT get swept.

The record is 14-2.  The losses were by the Yankees and Angels.  The two losses were enough to make it unprofitable.  The Yankee loss would have been enough to wipe out the 14 wins in one fell swoop.  Would have lost around 16 units, on that series alone, if my calculations are correct.  The system works as is.  No need to get greedy.  That's when the problems start.
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#130
Posted: 9/22/2012 6:41:29 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bruin95:


The record is 14-2.  The losses were by the Yankees and Angels.  The two losses were enough to make it unprofitable.  The Yankee loss would have been enough to wipe out the 14 wins in one fell swoop.  Would have lost around 16 units, on that series alone, if my calculations are correct.  The system works as is.  No need to get greedy.  That's when the problems start.

Ah thanks for the info.
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CKP22
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#131
Posted: 9/23/2012 11:48:10 PM
Two more plays for the season, Rangers starting Game 1 on Monday.

Record: 21-0
Game 1: 16
Game 2: 4
Game 3: 1

Record since started tracking in 1999: 449-0. 
436 wins within first three games.
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#132
Posted: 9/24/2012 1:56:16 PM
Thanks for posting CKP22
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jaime2309
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#133
Posted: 9/24/2012 4:29:06 PM
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#134
Posted: 9/24/2012 6:15:36 PM
what is the play for today?
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CKP22
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#135
Posted: 9/24/2012 11:29:25 PM
Rangers clear on Game 1.  Final play of the season will be Pirates starting Friday.  Play at your own risk as they've been bad in the 2nd half.

Record: 22-0
Game 1: 17
Game 2: 4
Game 3: 1

Record since started tracking in 1999: 450-0. 
437 wins within first three games.
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jaime2309
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#136
Posted: 9/25/2012 12:59:59 AM
Ckp22, great job man. (handshake)
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#137
Posted: 9/25/2012 8:39:19 AM
Thanks CKP22! Hoping to ride again next year
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Ben51781
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#138
Posted: 9/25/2012 9:13:42 PM
Thanks for the great system!
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CKP22
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#139
Posted: 9/28/2012 8:25:54 AM
Pirates are last play of season starting tonight. Their best player (McCutcheon) likely will be out of the lineup. While it fits the system, play at your own risk. I won't be playing them.

Record: 22-0
Game 1: 17
Game 2: 4
Game 3: 1

Record since started tracking in 1999: 450-0. 
437 wins within first three games.
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#140
Posted: 9/28/2012 11:02:35 PM
good call 22, the only way I'll play shitsburg will be on the last game of the series as long as their win-less, and going against a 12 year old all-star
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#141
Posted: 9/29/2012 4:13:17 AM
Could this be this systems first loss in over a decade?  I've been saying all along that Pittsburgh didn't belong with the other teams in this system, despite meeting the criteria.  Something to consider for next season is if a team that's been down for a long time and just happens to meet the criteria (ala Pittsburgh) might be filtered out.  Pittsburgh hasn't had a winning season in over 20 years, but happened to have a great first half.  We've all seen what has happened to them in the second half.  They've had one of the worst records in baseball.  While they haven't cost anyone anything, as yet, they have lost 4 A games and a B.  Only one other team has even lost an A game this season.  Just imagine how close the Mets came to meeting the criteria.  Going into the last series before the break, they were 7 over .500 and playing the Cubs at home.  A sweep would have put the Mets into the system.  They would have been losers to the system, not once, but twice!!  Getting swept at home in two 6 games series.  In another home series, they didn't win their first game until game 5 of the homestand.  Just something to consider if some surprise teams happen to make it next season.
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CKP22
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#142
Posted: 9/29/2012 10:22:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bruin95:

Could this be this systems first loss in over a decade?  I've been saying all along that Pittsburgh didn't belong with the other teams in this system, despite meeting the criteria.  Something to consider for next season is if a team that's been down for a long time and just happens to meet the criteria (ala Pittsburgh) might be filtered out.  Pittsburgh hasn't had a winning season in over 20 years, but happened to have a great first half.  We've all seen what has happened to them in the second half.  They've had one of the worst records in baseball.  While they haven't cost anyone anything, as yet, they have lost 4 A games and a B.  Only one other team has even lost an A game this season.  Just imagine how close the Mets came to meeting the criteria.  Going into the last series before the break, they were 7 over .500 and playing the Cubs at home.  A sweep would have put the Mets into the system.  They would have been losers to the system, not once, but twice!!  Getting swept at home in two 6 games series.  In another home series, they didn't win their first game until game 5 of the homestand.  Just something to consider if some surprise teams happen to make it next season.


Could it be the system's first in over a decade? Absolutely not.

This offseason, I do research prior to 1999 to see when the last loss was. Congrats to those that followed and made some money.



System complete for season with Pirates win in Game 2.

2012 Record: 23-0
Game 1: 17
Game 2: 5
Game 3: 1

Record since started tracking in 1999: 451-0. 
438 wins within first three games.




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CKP22
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#143
Posted: 9/29/2012 10:24:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bruin95:

Could this be this systems first loss in over a decade?  I've been saying all along that Pittsburgh didn't belong with the other teams in this system, despite meeting the criteria.  Something to consider for next season is if a team that's been down for a long time and just happens to meet the criteria (ala Pittsburgh) might be filtered out.  Pittsburgh hasn't had a winning season in over 20 years, but happened to have a great first half.  We've all seen what has happened to them in the second half.  They've had one of the worst records in baseball.  While they haven't cost anyone anything, as yet, they have lost 4 A games and a B.  Only one other team has even lost an A game this season.  Just imagine how close the Mets came to meeting the criteria.  Going into the last series before the break, they were 7 over .500 and playing the Cubs at home.  A sweep would have put the Mets into the system.  They would have been losers to the system, not once, but twice!!  Getting swept at home in two 6 games series.  In another home series, they didn't win their first game until game 5 of the homestand.  Just something to consider if some surprise teams happen to make it next season.


While teams do fit the system, I do filter out and don't play all of them.  Didn't use the Pirates on any of their last three series. I usually unload on teams I trust.
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Ben51781
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#144
Posted: 9/30/2012 9:48:52 PM
Great job!  Look forward to this next year....thanks!
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#145
Posted: 6/24/2013 3:22:45 PM
CKP22, 
Are you going to be posting plays on there this year? 3 weeks to go!!!
What unit-bankroll ratio do you recommend? 
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CKP22
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#146
Posted: 7/4/2013 12:53:21 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Bart_:

CKP22, 
Are you going to be posting plays on there this year? 3 weeks to go!!!
What unit-bankroll ratio do you recommend? 


I'll roll out the system again.  As for bankroll, everyone's is different. Depends what your goal on each team or series is.

Record since started tracking in 1999: 451-0. 
438 wins within first three games.


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#147
Posted: 7/4/2013 6:50:29 AM
If I want to make my units $100 each and each series is to win 1 unit. What inital bankroll would you recommend? 
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CKP22
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#148
Posted: 7/4/2013 10:23:12 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Bart_:

If I want to make my units $100 each and each series is to win 1 unit. What inital bankroll would you recommend? 


Would be very tough.  If you took just a four-game chase trying to win $100 and if it lost at the average price of -150 that would cost you just about $3800.  And that's just four games.  Now I know what record is and even on a four-game chase, the record would still be 446-5 dating to when I first tracked in 1999, but very costly unless you have another betting method.

I cut the chase after four games. Last time went past a Game 4 was in 2007. Went to a fifth that year.
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haappyy
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#149
Posted: 7/4/2013 1:20:06 PM
would betting just the A games  or just A&B straight up be profitable?
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CKP22
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#150
Posted: 7/4/2013 10:45:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by haappyy:

would betting just the A games  or just A&B straight up be profitable?


There is 396 of the 451 wins in the first two games. My advice would probably be three but you can certainly go two.
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