Texas Open Discussion

Forum: Pro Golf
Author: [Pro Golf] Topic: Texas Open Discussion
blairaj PM blairaj
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blairaj
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Posted: 4/16/2012 11:12:58 PM
If my memory is right, last year was abnormally very windy, so I ran both 2011 and 2010 for this tourney:

2011 Texas Open
Slope R2 Rank
BA 0.83   0.66 1
gir 0.76         0.35 2
PB 0.70   0.43 3
par4 0.69   0.27 4
sc 0.60   0.32 5
par5 0.57   0.36 6
pa 0.53   0.25 7
da 0.44   0.16 8
ppr 0.40   0.16 9
par3 0.28   0.05 10
dd 0.26   0.04 11

2010 Texas Open
Slope R2 Rank
par4   0.76 0.43 1
BA     0.70 0.54 2
par5   0.65 0.41 3
PB     0.64 0.49 4
sc      0.60 0.24 5
gir      0.56 0.35 6
pa      0.55 0.28 7
par3    0.43 0.16 8
ppr     0.38 0.14 9
dd      0.38 0.11 10
da      0.21 0.04 11
Bluefin PM Bluefin
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Posted: 4/17/2012 8:05:38 AM
translation?
blairaj PM blairaj
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blairaj
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Posted: 4/17/2012 8:20:40 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Bluefin:

translation?

Blue - take a look at last week's thread "heritage discussion".  I explain it and give at least one other example of this year's Masters
AJLightning PM AJLightning
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Posted: 4/17/2012 9:24:42 AM

Yes, last year was windy as hell.

How did this formula work out last week? Did you do any tweaks or keep it the same?

blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 4/17/2012 10:08:46 AM
AJ - there is no formula here. At this point, I'm not using the results to try to do any type of prediction. All I'm doing now is finding out from past results which stats have mathematically proven to correlate with score, and to what degree. Using those results then to do mathematical predictions would be the next step, but considerably more complex and definitely more time consuming to get the right data to feed a predictive model
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blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 4/17/2012 10:17:03 AM
If anyone can tell me how to link a spreadsheet, I have plots for each state that would help a lot in explaining.
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blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 4/17/2012 9:30:13 PM
Once again, it looks like I won't get lines til tomorrow.  I imagine some of these 130's will have moved up high enough that I won't play them. My leans for now:

Texas Open Full Tourney
Na-108 o Choi
Holmes-106 o Choi
Holmes-136 o Weekley
Cauley-134 o Palmer
Levin+102 o Rollins
Walker-136 o Leishman
Tringale-137 o Taylor
blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 4/18/2012 11:07:56 PM
If this works, I'll figure out how to create pdf's easier and post all the plots for each week.  Here I just took two examples from the Master's.  One that has a very high correlation and one that has a very low (even slightly negative) correlation.

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B4dfU4qGws3CVFlISWlfTmI2d2c
blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 4/18/2012 11:08:39 PM
example plots link 
blairaj PM blairaj
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Posted: 4/18/2012 11:11:39 PM
the link doesn't seem to work, but it does look like it'll work if you cut and paste it in

the thick red line in the plot signifies the cut.  Everyone above that line made the cut, everyone below the line missed the cut.
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