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Author: [Politics] Topic: 2012 Presidential election
SportsFan9698
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SportsFan9698
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Joined: May 2010
Posts: 3884
Location: Kentucky
#1
Posted: 4/26/2012 9:02:45 AM

Odds are still heavily in Obama's favor at -180

If you like to place and hold a futures bet, I say it's absolutely certain that Romney will win this election.  I'm not a big Romney supporter, but I do think that BO cannot win a second term.

Interesting piece of analysis I heard the other day.  If you look back at sitting incumbant presidents going into their second term election, one stat holds true for decades... Look at the approval rating for the incumbant at a time such as NOW, and you can generally know that he will get that number (percentage) of poplular vote, but more frequently a couple points lower.

Meaning that in most cases, in which the incumbant was riding a support figure of 50% or higher, he gets the vote.  BO is currently somewhere around 40% depending on what poll you look at, and if this stat holds true he will have no chance in the general election.  Getting 40% or less in the election will never get you close in the electral college.

Romney +160 is the safest bet anybody could make right now.

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SportsFan9698
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send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
SportsFan9698
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Joined: May 2010
Posts: 3884
Location: Kentucky
#2
Posted: 4/26/2012 9:28:02 AM
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/28/approval-ratings-and-re-election-odds/
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