Professional Handicapper Q&A Session

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Author: [The Archives] Topic: Professional Handicapper Q&A Session
Guttermouth PM Guttermouth
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:52:40 PM
Hey Sean
 
Do you ever make off-season futures picks?  If so, how much do off-season pick-ups affect the line for a particular team?
 
With that in mind...what do you think are the Cubs' chances for the 2007 World Series? 
 
hustle_man PM hustle_man
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:53:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by P_Miller_Sports:



hustle_man,

1)I really feel that credibility can only be built with success over time. I don't believe that your capping success has anything to do with whether or not you have experience playing a particular sport. For instance, I have played hockey, baseball, and basketball all of my life. Does it make me a better capper? In short, no.

2)It's interesting you bring that up, because it has happened to us on a few occasions over the past couple of years. We've discovered other pay sites, passing off our free picks as their own, and charging for them. It certainly is discouraging to say the least. It is definitely something that you have to watch out for.
 
Thanks for the answers Pat.  I have one last question -
 
About the "rating system".  Why would a handicapper have a rating system to rate plays for different unit amounts?  I understand a handicapper having a play he thinks is a BIG play and encourages his clients to bet more than average whether 2x, 5x, 10x as much and etc.  But why release plays on a daily basis saying Play A - risk 20 dimes, Play B - risk 5 dimes, Play C - risk 1 dime?  Sounds like you are just trying to take action to appease the clientele.  You'd think professional touts would appease their clients by picking a daily, close to guaranteed winner right? Instead of picking 3 to 4 games and hoping to have a 2-1 or 2-2 (but the bigger plays hit) kind of day.
CHOSENONE PM CHOSENONE
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:54:36 PM
How did u get into the capping industry?  Connections or were u noticed by someone? If so at what age did u get involved with picking games?
P_Miller_Sports PM P_Miller_Sports
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:54:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dmoney416:

 
Thanks for the response.  Just a quick follow up:
 
Do these movements ever make you rethink or scare you off a play?  Or do you generally ignore them and stick to your original pick?  Thanks again.


As a general rule, it's a good idea to stick with your original pick, as long as no unforeseen circumstances crop up. When you follow lines on a regular basis, you'll find that It really is 50/50 as to whether a line moves in the direction, or against the direction of the final result.
ABooksNightmare PM ABooksNightmare
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:54:51 PM
How long have you been a handicapper?
 
What is the average size of your wager on the plays you put out?
 
Who did you learn to handicapp from?
 
Do you and every tout tend to think that you are the "sharp players" that everyone refers to or is this for others? If so, who are the others in your opinion?
 
Why do many scamdicappers still use tactics such as inside informatio plays? Do you believe that inside info exist or not? Do you have any first hand knowledge of such behavior?
rookie333 PM rookie333
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:55:37 PM
1)Also, do you believe if say Team A dominated team B in one game, the next game do you think, more often than not, team B will will with revenge in minds or do you think that 1st game showed that team QA just is a much better team
 
2) how do you analyze matchups/ matchup problems?
 
thanks
Hoang612 PM Hoang612
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:56:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Hoang612:

P_Miller_Sports PM P_Miller_Sports
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:57:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gamer22:

 
so,  why not post your picks here for a period of time to gain credibility?


gamer22,

If you would like to follow my results over time you can do so at Covers Experts, or at Pat Miller Sports. Both sites display the results from the previous night.
Hoang612 PM Hoang612
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:57:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Hoang612:

hey pat, on the wv game tonight who do u think will cover and the total?
ABooksNightmare PM ABooksNightmare
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:58:34 PM
One more question:
 
In your opinion who do you feel are the premiere handicappers out there? I'm talking the most legit and the most creditable?
Rizzo PM Rizzo
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Posted: 11/16/2006 6:58:56 PM
  That's it for the questions guys.
 
Rizz
P_Miller_Sports PM P_Miller_Sports
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Posted: 11/16/2006 7:01:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by VGPOP:

 
Ok. Let's give this guy a try.
 
I see that the last 5-10 minutes before tipoff, for example in the NBA, the line (ATS or Total) changes all over. We could see a -5 favorite team go -6 in no time (and keep in mind that there's no injury or big news as to why line changed) just pure action.  Is this the time where 'sharps' make their plays?
 
Do they wait until the last possible moment to get as much information as they can?
 
How long does a professional bettor spend analizing the games for the day?


VGPOP,

In the case of late line movements, yes the majority of the time it is due to 'sharp' action. Whether it is a result of them waiting to gather as much information as they can or not, I'm not sure.

For myself, the time spent capping varies. This time of year is certainly the most hectic, later in the week (from Wed-Fri) it's not unusual for me to spend 10-12 hours. But you also have to consider the amount of time you spend watching games as well, that can be just as important as anything else.
junkie PM junkie
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Posted: 11/16/2006 7:04:03 PM
Do you bet your own money and if so, whats your annual income from betting your only money?
whats your annual income from people buying picks?
 
If you do so well why wasted your time here selling picks and dealing with pricks?
P_Miller_Sports PM P_Miller_Sports
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Posted: 11/16/2006 7:04:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Guttermouth:

Hey Sean
 
Do you ever make off-season futures picks?  If so, how much do off-season pick-ups affect the line for a particular team?
 
With that in mind...what do you think are the Cubs' chances for the 2007 World Series? 
 


To be honest, I'm not a big futures bettor. But there is no doubt that offseason pick-ups play a major role in determining the line. Sometimes a little more than they should in this bettor's opinion.

I'm not going to sugar coat it, the odds of the Cubs winning the World Series are not favorable. Let's hope I'm not eating crow next October.
gamer22 PM gamer22
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Posted: 11/16/2006 7:04:59 PM
Rizzo and Sean:  Thanks for your time.  Personally, I feel like I lost one hour of time which I can't even "double up" on to win back.  LOL
P_Miller_Sports PM P_Miller_Sports
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Posted: 11/16/2006 7:06:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ABooksNightmare:

How long have you been a handicapper?
 
What is the average size of your wager on the plays you put out?
 
Who did you learn to handicapp from?
 
Do you and every tout tend to think that you are the "sharp players" that everyone refers to or is this for others? If so, who are the others in your opinion?
 
Why do many scamdicappers still use tactics such as inside informatio plays? Do you believe that inside info exist or not? Do you have any first hand knowledge of such behavior?


ABooksNightmare,

I'm running a little low on time, but I will give you a quick answer to your last question.

No, I don't really believe in 'inside info'. Unless you are on a team's payroll, you don't have it. We use the numbers to the best of our ability, and certainly experience pays in this business.
P_Miller_Sports PM P_Miller_Sports
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Posted: 11/16/2006 7:10:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BoDogKilla:

In terms of other touts in the industry, who do you respect the most? Please don't give me the politically correst answer and name me only Covers Experts touts. And what do you think of this Dr. Bob phenomenon, with his released plays moving lines sometimes up to 4 points this CFB season?


BoDogKilla,

You may not like this, but I'm going to throw out a couple of guys on the Covers Experts roster.

Dave Malinsky and Ted Sevransky are two of the most knowledgeable guys in the business, hands down. If you check out their game analysis, I'm sure you'll agree that it's second to none.

Should anyone's picks move the line that much? I'm not so sure. I really think the jury is still out on Dr. Bob, but I will agree it has become a major event every Thursday.
Ponch PM Ponch
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Posted: 11/16/2006 7:12:34 PM

I would like to thank everyone who participated in our Q&A session tonight.

 

On behalf of our posting forum members I would like to take this opportunity to thank Sean Murphy for his time. This was an excellent experience for the Covers.com posting forum and we hope to offer our members this opportunity again in the future.

 

Cheers,

Ponch

Guttermouth PM Guttermouth
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Posted: 11/16/2006 7:16:25 PM
 
Thanks for doing this...good idea.
 
 
ragingstorm PM ragingstorm
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Posted: 11/16/2006 7:17:31 PM
what did u think of my 8-0 ats last sunday?
Rizzo PM Rizzo
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Posted: 11/16/2006 7:25:55 PM
great questions everyone....very informative session.  
 
Rizz
thegambler711 PM thegambler711
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Posted: 11/16/2006 8:30:15 PM
I will be following your system closely.
BOL
DanWalls02 PM DanWalls02
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Posted: 11/28/2006 3:06:10 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thegambler711:

I will be following your system closely.
BOL
 
what system/
Iw1nBets PM Iw1nBets
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Posted: 1/26/2010 2:40:33 AM
Getty3 PM Getty3
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Getty3
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Posted: 6/8/2014 6:30:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Ponch:

I would like to thank everyone who participated in our Q&A session tonight.

 

On behalf of our posting forum members I would like to take this opportunity to thank Sean Murphy for his time. This was an excellent experience for the Covers.com posting forum and we hope to offer our members this opportunity again in the future.

 

Cheers,

Ponch


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