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# For All Sabermetrics Genuises:

 Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: For All Sabermetrics Genuises: jaybosstein PM jaybossteinJoined: May 2010Posts: 970 Rookie #1Posted: 6/2/2012 10:48:36 PMWhat do you do to determine the outcome of a baseball game? DegenGamble PM DegenGambleJoined: Oct 2011Posts: 1089 Veteran #2Posted: 6/2/2012 10:58:24 PMTake a look at all the various run estimators out there. http://www.tangotiger.net/wiki/index.php?title=Category:Run_estimators The ones you will here about the most are Runs Created and Base Runs marko123 PM marko123Joined: Jan 2012Posts: 120 Prospect #3Posted: 6/4/2012 2:19:02 PMNice link Degen. I was looking through it and I think the best way to predict it is to take an average of the run estimators then multiply that by a certain opposing pitcher factor. I was thinking of maybe taking the natural log of ERC and multiplying that by the avg runs estimated. Ill post an example later Posted using a mobile device. DegenGamble PM DegenGambleJoined: Oct 2011Posts: 1089 Veteran #4Posted: 7/25/2012 10:20:05 PMI need help with the Base Formula: A = H + W + HBP - HR - .5*IWB = (1.4*TB - .6*H - 3*HR + .1*(W + HBP - IW) + .9*(SB - CS - GDP))*1.1C = AB - H + CS + GDPD = HR BR = A*B/(B + C) + D So assuming you use batter career stats versus the opposing starting pitcher I think the end result is the total Base Runs that the batter creates if the player batted all 9 positions in the lineup. So how would I figure out how many Base Runs the batter would produce if only batting 1 spot in the lineup. Can I just divide by 9?  Do I just divide the the Base Runs by number of At Bats and then multiple by the typical number At Bats a player has per game? (i.e. 3 or 4) marko123 PM marko123Joined: Jan 2012Posts: 120 Prospect #5Posted: 7/26/2012 8:17:19 AMI don't think you can divide by 9. The wiki page talked about manipulating BR for an individual batter. It said to use the batter you are interested in and 8 other average players.What I would do is I would find the league average for every single stat above. I would use those numbers for 8 players and use the batter's stats for the batter you're interested in. I would add the numbers up for the 9 players for each stat and use that in the calculation.Then I would create a sort of base figure. I would take the league average and apply it to 9 players. That would be an average team.You would take the BR with your batter and subtract the league avg BR which should give you the runs your batter created. DegenGamble PM DegenGambleJoined: Oct 2011Posts: 1089 Veteran #6Posted: 7/26/2012 11:03:38 AMThanks Marko - makes sense - I have it calculating individual stats and it's coming up with HUGE base run numbers right now. Math is definitely not my forte..... PeteyRose PM PeteyRoseJoined: Oct 2005Posts: 1433 Veteran #7Posted: 9/4/2012 1:22:33 AMyou guys can do all the math you want, but you will never beat Vegas's math.
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