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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: MLB :Return of the simple 4x4 and his humble brother 5x4
hrabri_pero send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
hrabri_pero
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#1
Posted: 3/30/2012 8:40:57 AM
Hello!
Here we go again... the simplest system ever
uses only wins total of teams last 10 games.

4x4:
play home team if in last ten has more than 4 wins and visiting team won less than 4 games in their last 10 played

5x4:
same as above. replace first 4 with 5... more than 5 wins in last 10 games, visitor less than 4

during last 12 seasons 4x4 wasn't profitable in seasons '02,'03 and '09, 5x4 only in '02. lines are from covers.com 


explanation of data:
season
system: profit (100$ bets); games played; profit per game played; percentage of wins; Max profit at any point during whole season; Min profit at any point

 2000 
4x4: 1518; 324; 4,69; 60,19%; 1518; -709
5x4: 667; 242; 2,76; 59,92%; 667; -965

 2001 
4x4: 2705; 307; 8,81; 62,54%; 3390; -1425
5x4: 535; 207; 2,58; 61,35%; 1115; -1475

 2002 
4x4: -4130; 287; -14,39; 55,05%; 575; -5185
5x4: -1560; 181; -8,62; 58,01%; 240; -2975

 2003 
4x4: -1470; 289; -5,09; 59,17%; 365; -3130
5x4: 1135; 195; 5,82; 63,59%; 1155; -1845

 2004 
4x4: 3525; 263; 13,40; 65,02%; 3880; -330
5x4: 3670; 184; 19,95; 67,39%; 4025; -245

 2005 
4x4: 178; 233; 0,76; 56,22%; 2220; -1462
5x4: 1373; 151; 9,09; 58,94%; 1770; -290

 2006 
4x4: 1125; 304; 3,70; 61,18%; 2550; -870
5x4: 3455; 198; 17,45; 66,16%; 4105; -80

 2007 
4x4: 1155; 262; 4,41; 60,69%; 1555; -1585
5x4: 370; 182; 2,03; 60,99%; 830; -1565

 2008 
4x4: 4095; 284; 14,42; 64,44%; 4145; -160
5x4: 2950; 182; 16,21; 66,48%; 2950; -365

 2009 
4x4: -445; 293; -1,52; 60,07%; 1190; -1705
5x4: 670; 198; 3,38; 61,11%; 1405; -900

 2010 
4x4: 416; 248; 1,68; 60,48%; 1197; -1230
5x4: 1196; 177; 6,76; 63,28%; 1941; -282

 2011 
4x4: 3298; 300; 10,99; 62,33%; 3429; -1087
5x4: 2710; 199; 13,62; 63,82%; 2710; -176

it isn't big moneymaker every time, but could net you 30 units on a good year. and risk isn't that big.

i'll be using 5x4 this year. 


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hrabri_pero send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
hrabri_pero
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#2
Posted: 4/17/2012 10:32:29 AM
first play this season:

ARI -192
quote
hrabri_pero send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
hrabri_pero
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#3
Posted: 4/18/2012 11:52:05 AM
bad first day

0-1  -1.92

heavy favorite for today
NYY -230
STL -123
quote
hrabri_pero send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
hrabri_pero
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#4
Posted: 4/18/2012 11:57:22 AM
bad first day

0-1  -1.92

heavy favorite for today
NYY -230
STL -123
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hrabri_pero send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
hrabri_pero
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#5
Posted: 4/19/2012 9:04:23 AM
bad second day...

overall:
1-2 -3.22


thursday:

WAS -159
MIA -157
STL -155
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PatrickBateman send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
PatrickBateman
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#6
Posted: 4/24/2012 9:45:04 AM
Any chance you could do this with just dog bets to limit the juice?
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LSU2thBone send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
LSU2thBone
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#7
Posted: 4/24/2012 10:00:44 AM
where did you go pero?

IF this really was backtested, it's got a solid record. I don't know how it could have been backtested other than going through every single day's standings looking for plays. I can't see anyone taking the time to do this!

I'm intrigued but don't trust that it has been backtested as the author took off after TWO DAYS!
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hrabri_pero send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
hrabri_pero
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#8
Posted: 4/24/2012 4:07:23 PM
it's backtested. 
i even won 20 units on 4x4  in 2009 
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=100449634&page=1 
but then i started from may
those stats are also from may... this year i rushed it a little

@PatrickBateman
you rarely get dogs with this system. 


thursday was also bad 1-2 

ytd 2-4 -5.36u 


no games that satisfied condition over weekend



today:

CLE -132




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hrabri_pero send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
hrabri_pero
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#9
Posted: 4/25/2012 11:16:19 AM
cle 

ytd: 3-4 -4.36

today... cleveland again falls into the system. but i'm not putting my money down...   





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sports_Network
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sports_Network
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#10
Posted: 5/1/2012 10:57:46 AM

hello hrabri_pero, I remember your system from 2009, and the work that is connected to it, glad to see you emerge again for the 2012 MLB season,  your 5x4 system is not only successful, but cuts deep into the risk factor, vg work, although you down play your profits with shear humbleness, and wagering caution, come on now, 30 units for the season? I easily see 90 with correct MM application; take care, nothing but the best in your direction, may you prosper always, your work is very interesting, and deserves merit, attention is recommended to those seeking a MLB system that is bonafide, and proven to be advantageous to the MLB capper;

later

quote
hrabri_pero send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
hrabri_pero
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#11
Posted: 7/11/2012 10:06:41 AM
Worst season yet for this system 

I checked out early. Wedding, buying an apartament... Big boy stuff. No time or money to play.

Anyway this is breakdown of terrible things this system could have done to your budget this year.

team by team record:

BAL 1/6 0,167  -622
BOS 3/6 0,5  -231
NYY 1/6 0,167  -675
TB 1/1 1  100
CHW 1/4 0,25  -374
CLE 4/8 0,5  -95
DET 1/1 1  100
KC 0/2 0  -233
MIN 2/5 0,4  -172
LAA 3/5 0,6  -23
TEX 3/4 0,75  36
MIA 3/5 0,6  20
NYM 2/3 0,667  97
PHI 0/1 0  -100
WAS 2/6 0,33  -380
BAL 1/6 0,167  -622
MIL 2/4 0,5  -97
STL 3/4 0,75  153
ARI 2/4 0,5  -135
COL 1/2 0,5  -47
LA 6/9 0,667  256
SF 5/9 0,556  -12

total 46/95 0,484  -2434

That would be IT for me and 'systems'.

Good luck!
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