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Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: The Vinery Spiral Stakes--Derby Prep
mikeyp1 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
mikeyp1
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Posted: 3/24/2012 9:57:49 AM

To some, the Spiral Stakes (G-III, $500,000) doesn’t appear to be anything more than an eye-roller compared to the big name preps. The contestants seem to be those sitting at the end of the bench, but make no mistake as this looks to be a most competitive affair.

 

Certainly the trainers and jocks are taking this 1-1/8 miles run seriously: Pletcher and Maker each have two in here.  Motion, Lukas, Hollendorfer, Servis, Casse and O’Neill send in the troops with Johnny V., Rosario, Rosie, Corey, Castallano and Pedroza among the riders.

 

Here are the contenders:

 

#12 Handsome Mike…..I sure wish this guy drew better, but despite being out to the right, he just might be able to clear the field for the win as he does have early foot. Rosario pilots the Scat Daddy colt for Doug O’Neill. Handsome Mike comes here with the best speed figures of any of them, as well as a decent graded stakes resume. While his win record in stakes doesn’t show well on paper (4/0-1-1 in graded stakes), Mike’s speed figures in those races are excellent. What’s more, he’s faced better competitors than any of the others entered losing to Daddy’s Nose Best in the El Camino, Out of Bounds and Secret Circle in the Sham; Liason and Rousing Sermon in the G-I Cash Call (he finished 7th, but just 2-3/4 back). He finished second in the G-III Generous. Mike has poly credit too, which should be a plus. Proceed with caution, but take a hard look at 4-1 on the morning line.

 

#3 Heavy Breathing…..2 for 2 lifetime and the 3-1 ML favorite for Pletcher, his speed number didn’t improve in his last race, but he appears to have the eye of the tiger. One of two Giant’s Causeway’s in this contest, Todd puts his new “A” gamer aboard, Castellano. Heavy Breathing easily handled this distance last out winning by 4-1/2 lengths. Both of his races/wins have been in 6 horse fields, so he is taking on much heavier this go.

 

#4 Went the Day Well………He has done little wrong (4/2-1-0) so far. Starting his career in England on the lawn with two place finishes, he’s adapted well in his two dirt races at Gulfstream, which leads me to believe the son of Proud Citizen will take to the synthetic. Went the Day Well is 4-1 on the ML and appears to have earned the respect.

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Posted: 3/24/2012 9:58:33 AM

#7 Ill Conceived…..I like this guy’s chances quite a bit as he is always sniffing the prize. In eight career races, Ill Conceived is 8/2-3-2 losing by a head last out in the Battaglia at this track losing to the game State of Play. He beat Handsome Mike on Dec. 28 at Penn. Stu Elliot rides for Servis and his stalking style just might be the recipe for a win.

 

#10 Mr. Prankster…..This is a horse that is 7/3-2-0 lifetime and if you toss his two clunkers (the Battaglia where he finished 11-1/4 out and the disastrous G-II KY JC when he lost by 29), he’s pretty good. That said, Prankster is 12-1 on the ML despite winning twice and placing second in four races on the poly winning twice at this track. Rosie rides for Mike Maker.

 

#1 Russian Greek……Another son of Giant’s Causeway, he has won three times on the Golden Gate poly finishing 8 back to Daddy Nose Best in the El Camino last out never firing. He’s won three of his five lifetime and should compete for trainer Hollendorfer. Nakatani rides.

 

My picks:

 

#12 Handsome Mike to win and place

 

$15 ex key: 12/3,4,7

 

$8 ex wheel: 3,4,7/12

 

$4 tri wheel: 12/3,4,7/1,3,4,7,10

 

$1 tri wheel: 3,4,7/3,4,7,12/1,3,4,7,10,12

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Tygermyke send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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Posted: 3/24/2012 10:39:43 AM

Great writeup as usual, Mikey.  I bet that horse last out in Cal. so I'll give him another chance.  Took a bad beat on a dq yesterday in the last at the FG-Rosie drifted out into a 96-1 shot and they took her down-so maybe the race gods owe me today.

LSU baseball can't hit a bunch of bananas with a bass fiddle so I'm staying away for a while and make my fortune on horses and baskets.  Good luck in all endeavors.

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pittsburghphil
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Posted: 3/24/2012 2:43:50 PM
                    boxing  1-3-11-12   in exactas and trifecta.  coming back with  longshot #11  stealcase  to wp.  i used him in the gotham.  they paid enough for him.  i think he  will run much better today on the synthetic.     great stuff  mikey  good luck today.
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Posted: 3/24/2012 2:44:49 PM
Thanks T-Myke. How's the TIger baseballers doing this season?
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gambler315 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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Posted: 3/24/2012 4:32:19 PM

Hiya Mikey,

In these graded races I look for horses that can run a 90 Beyer but I see we have none here. So let's back it up 5 pts. to 85 which means a weak field to me. Leaves me with 2 horses,

#10- Mr. Prankster and #12 Handsome Mike so I'll go with the longer odds. Also note the 10 was 5 wide last time hence the jock switch and has won twice on the fake stuff at this track while the 12 is 0 for 3 on it and ships across country.

I'll take Rosie & Maker for a nice payoff???

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#7
Posted: 3/24/2012 4:42:47 PM
I'll go with a 3,4 ex Box big!!!
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mikeyp1 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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Posted: 3/24/2012 4:50:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gambler315:

Hiya Mikey,

In these graded races I look for horses that can run a 90 Beyer but I see we have none here. So let's back it up 5 pts. to 85 which means a weak field to me. Leaves me with 2 horses,

#10- Mr. Prankster and #12 Handsome Mike so I'll go with the longer odds. Also note the 10 was 5 wide last time hence the jock switch and has won twice on the fake stuff at this track while the 12 is 0 for 3 on it and ships across country.

I'll take Rosie & Maker for a nice payoff???

 

I like your analysis, G315....I was just a bit shy on Prankster for the top two spots, but the more I look at him, the more I am liking him.

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mikeyp1 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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Posted: 3/24/2012 4:53:41 PM

I think Gambler has some good thoughts on Mr. Prankster and I will refer to his advice and add:

$6 ex box 10,12

$1 tri whl: 10,12/3,4,7,10,12/3,4,7,10,12

GL TO ALL!

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Kurshka
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#10
Posted: 3/24/2012 5:36:33 PM

Good stuff Mike.

GL guys.

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mikeyp1 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#11
Posted: 3/24/2012 5:56:53 PM

Finishes 4 - 5 - 3-12

WENT THE DAY WELL PUNCHES HIS TICKET TO L'VLLE

 

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